Tide turning
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 n wales eagles  llandudno 26 Nov 17 10.19am |
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After shawcross miss yesterday and yohans shot coming off the post straight to sakho is the tide of bad luck turning .
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Brentmiester_General  Front line in the battle against t... 26 Nov 17 10.22am |
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I was thinking the exact opposite when RLC certain goal bound shot was blocked by a Stoke defender in the first half. We just need to keep plugging away and the luck will have to come.
"We love you Palace, we f@cking hate Man U, We love you Palace, we hate the brighton too, We love you Palace we play in red 'n' blue, so f@ck you, and you ... |
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| Aolcpfc Finchley, London 26 Nov 17 10.47am |
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No. A 'tide of luck' does not turn BECAUSE of, or DESPITE what went before. It turns because luck is luck- nothing more. Six heads in a row occur because of luck. The next throw is still a 50:50 chance of being a head. The throw after that still has a 50:50 chance of being a head. Now if you'd said at the start: "what's the chance of 8 heads in a row?" you'd say it's 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. That's a very different out come. Luck is not created- it happens: be it good or bad. We will have runs of luck and runs of bad luck. Besides which, you couldn't possibly notice every instance of good luck and every instance of bad luck in a game. You can't see everything. So you can't say whether we were more lucky or less lucky in a particular game because you've not evaluated every instance of luck. A computer that 'watched' the game countless number of times might get closer to an answer, but even that would depend on what is programmed as being 'luck'. We humans only register a very small proportion of what we see. Furthermore we are all biased. How we perceive things and evaluate things is dependent on our preconceptions. Luck will, so to speak, sort itself out. Not even worth thinking about luck as it can't be influenced. I stand to be corrected (as I am no panjandrum) by the philosophers/ physicists amongst you, but that's how I understand it.
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| Aolcpfc Finchley, London 26 Nov 17 10.49am |
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Sorry, I forgot to include the statisticians amongst you.
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| dp Tunbridge Wells 26 Nov 17 10.52am |
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Originally posted by Aolcpfc
No. A 'tide of luck' does not turn BECAUSE of, or DESPITE what went before. It turns because luck is luck- nothing more. Six heads in a row occur because of luck. The next throw is still a 50:50 chance of being a head. The throw after that still has a 50:50 chance of being a head. Now if you'd said at the start: "what's the chance of 8 heads in a row?" you'd say it's 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. That's a very different out come. Luck is not created- it happens: be it good or bad. We will have runs of luck and runs of bad luck. Besides which, you couldn't possibly notice every instance of good luck and every instance of bad luck in a game. You can't see everything. So you can't say whether we were more lucky or less lucky in a particular game because you've not evaluated every instance of luck. A computer that 'watched' the game countless number of times might get closer to an answer, but even that would depend on what is programmed as being 'luck'. We humans only register a very small proportion of what we see. Furthermore we are all biased. How we perceive things and evaluate things is dependent on our preconceptions. Luck will, so to speak, sort itself out. Not even worth thinking about luck as it can't be influenced. I stand to be corrected (as I am no panjandrum) by the philosophers/ physicists amongst you, but that's how I understand it. Fantastic Answer. Can we apply the same approach to who is better Hennessey or Speroni.
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| Dangermouse Hastings 26 Nov 17 10.56am |
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Originally posted by Aolcpfc
No. A 'tide of luck' does not turn BECAUSE of, or DESPITE what went before. It turns because luck is luck- nothing more. Six heads in a row occur because of luck. The next throw is still a 50:50 chance of being a head. The throw after that still has a 50:50 chance of being a head. Now if you'd said at the start: "what's the chance of 8 heads in a row?" you'd say it's 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. That's a very different out come. Luck is not created- it happens: be it good or bad. We will have runs of luck and runs of bad luck. Besides which, you couldn't possibly notice every instance of good luck and every instance of bad luck in a game. You can't see everything. So you can't say whether we were more lucky or less lucky in a particular game because you've not evaluated every instance of luck. A computer that 'watched' the game countless number of times might get closer to an answer, but even that would depend on what is programmed as being 'luck'. We humans only register a very small proportion of what we see. Furthermore we are all biased. How we perceive things and evaluate things is dependent on our preconceptions. Luck will, so to speak, sort itself out. Not even worth thinking about luck as it can't be influenced. I stand to be corrected (as I am no panjandrum) by the philosophers/ physicists amongst you, but that's how I understand it.
That's Life |
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| MKCPFC Spain/MK 26 Nov 17 10.58am |
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Originally posted by Aolcpfc
No. A 'tide of luck' does not turn BECAUSE of, or DESPITE what went before. It turns because luck is luck- nothing more. Six heads in a row occur because of luck. The next throw is still a 50:50 chance of being a head. The throw after that still has a 50:50 chance of being a head. Now if you'd said at the start: "what's the chance of 8 heads in a row?" you'd say it's 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. That's a very different out come. Luck is not created- it happens: be it good or bad. We will have runs of luck and runs of bad luck. Besides which, you couldn't possibly notice every instance of good luck and every instance of bad luck in a game. You can't see everything. So you can't say whether we were more lucky or less lucky in a particular game because you've not evaluated every instance of luck. A computer that 'watched' the game countless number of times might get closer to an answer, but even that would depend on what is programmed as being 'luck'. We humans only register a very small proportion of what we see. Furthermore we are all biased. How we perceive things and evaluate things is dependent on our preconceptions. Luck will, so to speak, sort itself out. Not even worth thinking about luck as it can't be influenced. I stand to be corrected (as I am no panjandrum) by the philosophers/ physicists amongst you, but that's how I understand it. Don't come on here stating the obvious.
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europalace  Europe 26 Nov 17 11.02am |
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Originally posted by Aolcpfc
No. A 'tide of luck' does not turn BECAUSE of, or DESPITE what went before. It turns because luck is luck- nothing more. Six heads in a row occur because of luck. The next throw is still a 50:50 chance of being a head. The throw after that still has a 50:50 chance of being a head. Now if you'd said at the start: "what's the chance of 8 heads in a row?" you'd say it's 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. That's a very different out come. Luck is not created- it happens: be it good or bad. We will have runs of luck and runs of bad luck. Besides which, you couldn't possibly notice every instance of good luck and every instance of bad luck in a game. You can't see everything. So you can't say whether we were more lucky or less lucky in a particular game because you've not evaluated every instance of luck. A computer that 'watched' the game countless number of times might get closer to an answer, but even that would depend on what is programmed as being 'luck'. We humans only register a very small proportion of what we see. Furthermore we are all biased. How we perceive things and evaluate things is dependent on our preconceptions. Luck will, so to speak, sort itself out. Not even worth thinking about luck as it can't be influenced. I stand to be corrected (as I am no panjandrum) by the philosophers/ physicists amongst you, but that's how I understand it. Well, one does create one's own luck. If the team had no attacks and no balls in the box then there's no chance of scoring, even with 'luck' of hitting the woodwork, a deflection, a penalty or even an own goal.
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| PALACE FOR EVER London 26 Nov 17 11.23am |
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Yes there was some luck in Sakho's goal but we have three players (Sakho, Benteke and Tompkins) in a line in the six yard box with Sakho in the middle, no Stoke player near them with Crouch on the goal line and the keeper no where near as he is positioning himself for Cabaye's shot. Give the players credit for standing where they did, can't be offside because of where Crouch is standing. I remember Ferguson when managing Man Utd saying (something like this) 'It looks like we are luckier than others but the players are good enough to take advantage of any luck going' You could say the better a team is the luckier they seem to be!
The pyramid to beat all pyramids!! Find out what team is in which division, eg which division is Coppull United in? |
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| Aolcpfc Finchley, London 26 Nov 17 11.36am |
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Europalace, you are right, I believe. You say: "Well, one does create one's own luck. If the team had no attacks and no balls in the box then there's no chance of scoring, even with 'luck' of hitting the woodwork, a deflection, a penalty or even an own goal". I say: the team creates the CONDITIONS for luck to play in its favour. However, by the same token, the team also creates the conditions for luck to play against it. You are correct to say that a team can't benefit form luck in front of the opponent's goal that team is always defending its own penalty area. Are you drawing attention to the fact that the phrase creating one's own luck is sometimes misinterpreted? Of course at times, we do profit from previous luck, but that is a different matter completely.
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| Loz83 Crawley 26 Nov 17 2.08pm |
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I can see all the teams around us are starting to s*** themselves, were on the up , we’ve got some good players , good manager , we’re gona survive I can feel it. Ive got the same feeling I did when Pulis took over, teams won’t look forward to playing us anymore!
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| Dan1994 Wallington 26 Nov 17 2.16pm |
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There's no such thing as luck, only regression to the mean (most of the time). Good example of that being West Ham after finishing 7th or whatever it was.
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