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Which Three Teams for Relegation.
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 antipodeagle  Wellington 03 Nov 21 12.32am |
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Originally posted by sydtheeagle
The names being bandied about by Newcastle, like Ramsey, show - if they're true - that Newcastle are going down and have no credible plan to stay up ("buy lots of big names" is NOT a credible plan to stay up). If I'm Newcastle, I'd be on the phone to Patrick asking him what it would take to sign James Tomkins and Martin Kelly because are those are the sort of incomings that might not be glamorous and might not be Newcastle's long-term future, but will provide the know how to help them for the next 6-18 months while they put a credible long-term plan in place. And for the right price, both might be available. If Newcastle supporters think just because there's a bunch of money to spunk all will be well in the Garden of Eden they're in for a big disappointment. I also think there are worse things that could happen to Newcastle than relegation. If they go down, they'll have none of the money worries other relegated clubs do and frankly, it might just give them a much-needed opportunity to clean house and rebuild again from ground zero which they have the budget to do and then come back up much better equipped to succeed. The worst thing Newcastle could do now is to sign a bunch of expensive, self-interested players and then be saddled with them for the mid-to-long-term future, impacting the major rebuild the club really needs. Wise words Syd, but I don't think the Geordies or the Saudis will see it quite that way. If they've got problems convincing players to play for them in the Prem, it's going to be even tougher in the Champ.
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sydtheeagle  England 03 Nov 21 8.03am |
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Originally posted by antipodeagle
Wise words Syd, but I don't think the Geordies or the Saudis will see it quite that way. If they've got problems convincing players to play for them in the Prem, it's going to be even tougher in the Champ. But this is precisely the point they're missing. They have no plan. You don't need Premership players to get you out of the Championship, as Norwich, West Brom, and others have proved year after year. You need them to stay in the Premiership, yes, but not to get promoted. If Newcastle's new owners are serious about the club, their goals should be long-term and properly planned; not to chuck money about in misplaced, short-sighted transfer ventures best described as a roll of the dice fuelled by a desire to impress supporters and stay up despite the club being ill-equipped to succeed at the top level right now. As I said in my last post, they should aim now to buy players like Tomkins who are better than what they have, and who know how to stay up. If they do go down anyway, they haven't brought in the sort of player who will be totally unsuited to the Championship and beyond that, once relegated, they don't need the sort of players who, as you put it, "wouldn't go to a Championship club" anyway. They'll need the likes of Mitrovic (for one example), proven, top Championship players who will get them promoted. They already have Dwight Gayle who we know is more than capable of scoring the goals at that level to get a team up. That sort of player would jump at a move to Newcastle, and you give them 2 year contracts so you're not committed financially long-term if some of them are then not really Premiership quality after promotion. You get promoted, and only then do you need to start thinking about galacticos and building a serious Premier-quality side for the long-term. It's instructive that this morning it's reported that Unai Emery has turned down the Newcastle job precisely because of the above; his impression is that they don't have a plan at all. And enormous amounts of money without an underlying plan is a recipe for disaster; not success. In my view, right now Newcastle's biggest enemy is its own fans whose expectations are idiotic and its new owners whose patience appears to be non-existent. Everyone at the Toon needs to calm down and dig in for slow, long-term development. If, and it's a big "if" they put their money to good use in a patient, intelligent way they can dramatically turn the club around over a five year period. If they simply chuck money at the likes of Aaron Ramsey, they're likely to go nowhere fast. Again, look at Palace. Sure, our owners are not sheiks but it's taken us ten years to really establish ourselves as a Premiership side and the new Academy, NOT the signing of any star player, is probably the biggest reason we've moved in the right direction. With the money they have, Newcastle can get there in a lot less time than it took us, but it will still take time. Newcastle fans should, at least in the short term, see clubs like us and maybe Brighton as the blueprint to follow and stop imagining that Man Utd. and Liverpool are the role models to follow. They're not. I don't care how much money they have now; pretending "big club" status is a transfer window away is simply fooling yourself.
Sydenham by birth. Selhurst by the Grace of God. |
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| sydtheeagle England 03 Nov 21 9.37am |
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Originally posted by MrRobbo
Let’s be fair, we don’t know they have no plan. We’ll just have to wait until the transfer window to see what’s going on. Don't we? Are we being unfair? Surely, if you have a plan, telling people what it is is not rocket science. I mean, we know what Parish's plan was/is. He's made it clear all along and it's one big reason we all have confidence in him. The Academy. Rebuild the Old Stand. Establish the club in the Premiership through sensible transfer activity, now focused on buying top English young players. That's a plan and a good one. Presumably, if Newcastle had a coherent plan, they'd be the first to announce it to set expectations and calm the supporters down which is what any owner of a club should want to do. Instead, they're simply flailing around being linked with one glamorous name after another (be it players or managers) while Amanda Staveley looks delighted to hoover up any publicity she can get for herself. That looks to me like a club that doesn't have a plan or at least one giving a good impression of being all over the place. Furthermore, if reports that Unai Emery has turned Newcastle down for more or less exactly the reasons above, that suggests that someone who's had a much closer look at the club than you or I have also thought there isn't much of a coherent plan in place and thus, in spite of what was probably a pretty lucrative offer, he's turned down the job. My conclusion that they don't have a plan remains speculation, but there's a pretty fair body of evidence emerging to support that conclusion.
Sydenham by birth. Selhurst by the Grace of God. |
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| sydtheeagle England 03 Nov 21 9.50am |
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Originally posted by Jacey
Yes,and it looks as if Rafa may be out the door soon (to the toon!!) I think if Rafa goes Everton will officially become a laughing stock. Whether or not he was the right hire in view of his Liverpool connnections is, I think, debatable and you can also justifiably have an opinion about what you think of the playing style of his teams. However, you can't dispute that he's a fundamentally competent manager who knows what he's doing and since Rafa delivers what it says on the tin, if Everton now moved him because in one way or another he wasn't the right fit, they'd look like complete idiots having got exactly what they knew they were hiring in the first place, only three months ago. Furthermore, given the fact that Rafa is competent the complete non-performance of the Everton team so far this season implies there are much deeper problems at Goodison than just those located in the manager's office. Everton should be a salutary note for Newcastle supporters about how money not used wisely can result in both not solving existing problems and at the same time creating new ones. Cash helps, but it's not a cure-all. Arguably, Everton should never have employed Rafa but now they have the owners need to recognise that the club is a s*** show, that's it going to take more than twelve months to turn things around, and they need to support the manager in a mid- to long-term build. Everton and Newcastle are rapidly becoming the poster boys for the fact that having money and being successful are not causally related.
Sydenham by birth. Selhurst by the Grace of God. |
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| sydtheeagle England 03 Nov 21 10.58am |
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Originally posted by NEILLO
I think reality might be starting to sink in with the Geordies. I get Syds point re a plan. What you said. I think, Neillo, that you and I are on exactly the same page here. We're more or less finishing each other's sentences. But very well said.
Sydenham by birth. Selhurst by the Grace of God. |
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| MrRobbo Chaldon 03 Nov 21 11.41am |
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Originally posted by sydtheeagle
Don't we? Are we being unfair? Surely, if you have a plan, telling people what it is is not rocket science. I mean, we know what Parish's plan was/is. He's made it clear all along and it's one big reason we all have confidence in him. The Academy. Rebuild the Old Stand. Establish the club in the Premiership through sensible transfer activity, now focused on buying top English young players. That's a plan and a good one. Presumably, if Newcastle had a coherent plan, they'd be the first to announce it to set expectations and calm the supporters down which is what any owner of a club should want to do. Instead, they're simply flailing around being linked with one glamorous name after another (be it players or managers) while Amanda Staveley looks delighted to hoover up any publicity she can get for herself. That looks to me like a club that doesn't have a plan or at least one giving a good impression of being all over the place. Furthermore, if reports that Unai Emery has turned Newcastle down for more or less exactly the reasons above, that suggests that someone who's had a much closer look at the club than you or I have also thought there isn't much of a coherent plan in place and thus, in spite of what was probably a pretty lucrative offer, he's turned down the job. My conclusion that they don't have a plan remains speculation, but there's a pretty fair body of evidence emerging to support that conclusion. Parish (to my memory) didn't come out at the end of last season and outline a transition plan? We had months of the papers going crazy that half of our squad was out of contract. And then we lost 2 managers, and ended up with Viera that everyone was worried about. And if we are also being fair, Palace's football has been dire for years, without an obvious plan from Parish. For the record, I'm not saying I like them, more that you are picking up on random media chat. But broadly I suspect there are looking at 2 things (the same as most clubs in the league): the best manager that they can get, that ideally can help them survive and kick on. and Ideally with Prem experience. Recruiting the best players they can in January to help achieve the objectives of survive and kick on
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05 Nov 21 9.42am| Goalpost1 Worcester Park 05 Nov 21 1.02pm |
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Originally posted by crvenaeagle
Oh man that would be great wouldn't it, if after all this it still went tits up anyway because the owners thought they could just chuck money at it and everything will come good. Bottom of League 1 and bankrupt in 5 years time, one can only dream! Haha! Normally I'd kind of disagree with this but looking at some of the Newcastle forums recently there is a real nasty undercurrent with more than a minority of their fans. The name calling of Bruce for example even after he'd gone was just unnecessary. No wonder the bloke reacted on the media in the way he did. Bring it on relegation warts and all. Couldn't happen to a nicer club.
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06 Nov 21 2.20am| Badger11 Beckenham 06 Nov 21 8.21am |
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Originally posted by Wilbraham413
It would great if Newcastle went down, and without the Saudis taking over, I'm almost sure they would have. But, throwing a ton of money at new players in January will likely be all they need to salvage a couple more wins, and escape the drop. It sucks, but that is the state of the league at the moment. Financial Fair Play is a load of bullsh-t. And it's only a matter of time before more clubs are bought out by owners who have unlimited funds, and want to sports-wash their image. It's possible we could be in that boat someday. I think Norwich is already gone, and then the most likely relegation teams this season are Burnley and Watford, with the possibility of Leeds or Brentford getting into the mix. Now that Newcastle has unlimited money, that is a blow to us, because instead of 6-7 teams being certain of avoiding relegation, there will now be 7-8 teams. If West Ham gets big enough, there will be 8-9 teams fairly certain of not being relegated. At some point, we will need to either attract much bigger investors, or we will eventually hit some bad luck and go down. If only 11 teams are fighting to avoid the bottom 3 spots every season, it is not a sustainable business model. That is the worry if more clubs are bought by super rich owners at some point clubs like Palace, Southampton, Norwich etc. will start to warm to the idea of a league with no relegation. I would hate that to happen but unless you can compete with the super rich it is the only other solution. I just don't see any interest in making the PL a more level playing field the owners will not allow it.
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| silvertop Portishead 06 Nov 21 9.25am |
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Originally posted by sydtheeagle
What you said. I think, Neillo, that you and I are on exactly the same page here. We're more or less finishing each other's sentences. But very well said. Get a room!
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| Davepalace707 Northumberland 06 Nov 21 10.15am |
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Originally posted by Wilbraham413
It would great if Newcastle went down, and without the Saudis taking over, I'm almost sure they would have. But, throwing a ton of money at new players in January will likely be all they need to salvage a couple more wins, and escape the drop. It sucks, but that is the state of the league at the moment. Financial Fair Play is a load of bullsh-t. And it's only a matter of time before more clubs are bought out by owners who have unlimited funds, and want to sports-wash their image. It's possible we could be in that boat someday. I think Norwich is already gone, and then the most likely relegation teams this season are Burnley and Watford, with the possibility of Leeds or Brentford getting into the mix. Now that Newcastle has unlimited money, that is a blow to us, because instead of 6-7 teams being certain of avoiding relegation, there will now be 7-8 teams. If West Ham gets big enough, there will be 8-9 teams fairly certain of not being relegated. At some point, we will need to either attract much bigger investors, or we will eventually hit some bad luck and go down. If only 11 teams are fighting to avoid the bottom 3 spots every season, it is not a sustainable business model. It all depends on where your club sits on the financial ladder. Championship clubs will look at us with envy with our American investment which came good this summer, our strong team and business & football acumen & eighth year in the PL. Yes we’re a long way off the financial clout of the top 6-10 sides but we’re way above the majority of our competition. Most seasons one often two of the promoted teams go straight back down as they can’t just easily slot back into the demands of the PL, in reality we’re more like one of ten teams battling for eight or nine league places. Not such bad odds.
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| Omph Liverpool 06 Nov 21 11.33am |
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Originally posted by leejaneagles
Newcastle won't go down IMO. I'd love it if they did though. Only the top 4 have a better Striker than Wilson. That is the most valuable thing in a relegation battle. If Palace were in a relegation battle, I'd rather have just Wilson than our nice style of play and great ball-players like Zaha/Olise/Guehi/Andersen etc. That's NOT me saying they are in a better position than us and I'd rather have their team or I'd rather not have Zaha. After the City win we are thankfully getting the points we should be after silly mistakes have been costing us. That has now put us in a firmly mid-table race. Had we lost to City and started rolling towards the bottom I'd start being a little more uncomfortable with our play-style and lack of a pure Striker to put it in the net. Newcastle already have that. When you factor in they do have their own Zaha as well in Saint-Maxim, I can't see them needing to coerce the very best players to Newcastle in January to save them like the Media keep lazily suggesting. They have the 2 most expensive signings already - a goal scorer and tricky winger. Off the top of my head, they could buy James Tomkins, Dalot, Leno and maybe splash a little bit on Kalvin Phillips from Leeds and they'd immediately survive. Tomkins can go end of the season. Dalot might thrive at Newcastle but if he doesn't go and spend 50mil on a right back in the Summer but the Portuguese International is more than capable of helping avoid relegation this year around. Then in the Summer as well you can do your real rebuild. Right now, players like Bernd Leno and James Tomkins sitting on benches collecting dust are exactly what they need to put a plaster over the hole in the boat. Saint-Maxim and Wilson will get them the goals, those other players will keep the goals the opposite end a lot lower. They scrape 16th-17th, job done. It's a lot easier when they can risk bringing in the likes of Tomkins for 18 months on an obscene salary because you have unlimited funds and could pay him it in the Championship if needs be. The chances are they will be at best around 15 points come midseason and that's optimistic given the fixture run. It could easily be 10-12 points. That is an immense mountain to climb. Look at fixtures: Brighton away - probable loss It is possible to get 25 points in. half a season but even that may not be enough. It is a very tough division this year. When Palace have pulled that trick off the division was comparatively much weaker. Edited by Omph (06 Nov 2021 11.34am) Edited by Omph (06 Nov 2021 11.35am)
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| Omph Liverpool 06 Nov 21 11.47am |
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Originally posted by Wilbraham413
It would great if Newcastle went down, and without the Saudis taking over, I'm almost sure they would have. But, throwing a ton of money at new players in January will likely be all they need to salvage a couple more wins, and escape the drop. It sucks, but that is the state of the league at the moment. Financial Fair Play is a load of bullsh-t. And it's only a matter of time before more clubs are bought out by owners who have unlimited funds, and want to sports-wash their image. It's possible we could be in that boat someday. I think Norwich is already gone, and then the most likely relegation teams this season are Burnley and Watford, with the possibility of Leeds or Brentford getting into the mix. Now that Newcastle has unlimited money, that is a blow to us, because instead of 6-7 teams being certain of avoiding relegation, there will now be 7-8 teams. If West Ham gets big enough, there will be 8-9 teams fairly certain of not being relegated. At some point, we will need to either attract much bigger investors, or we will eventually hit some bad luck and go down. If only 11 teams are fighting to avoid the bottom 3 spots every season, it is not a sustainable business model. Huge assumption here Throwing money at teams is no guarantee. Villa have spent obscene amounts of money and are a one point a match team this season and last when Grealish hasn't played. They have spent the equivalent of around 25 million of every spot in the first team squad. They are simply bang average right now. That's been an outlay over 2/3 seasons with time for training and team gelling. Expensive players means little by themselves. Factor in also that they need to do all of this midseason and with the need to find a style of play and integrate players with no preseason training and make up what will in all likelihood be a significant points deficit to the team in 17th. I'd back Dyche at Burnley for example over Newcastle any day of the week despite disparity of expenditure. Burnley have a settled pattern of play. One of the signings of the season in Cornet and have in truth been unlucky so far.
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| Davepalace707 Northumberland 06 Nov 21 12.53pm |
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Norwich Watford & Man Utd
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Nubes  London 06 Nov 21 4.07pm |
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Norwich
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| peterg Anerley 07 Nov 21 11.19am |
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Norwich, Burnley, Villa.
The right place at the right time |
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