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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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Matov Flag 27 Aug 19 3.02pm

Originally posted by dollardays

Cheers Matov! We can always rely on you to bring the Brexit knowledge.

LOL.

Oddly enough I don't get that het up about the money. Yes, it is a lot but in the greater scheme of things, not beyond what we can comfortably pay.

And if the talks had been handled better then I reckon it would actually have been a relatively cheap sum to hand over in exchange for EU co-operation on border issues. The money is a specific concern for the actual EU as an institution, as opposed to the trade concerns which are primarily national and if we had agreed to keep on bunging the w***ers in Brussels, it might have smoothed out paths elsewhere. And to be fair to the EU, it does actually hold a lot of smaller countries to account when it comes to how the money is spent on infrastructure so some points could have been had by taking a more generous stance

But that ship has sailed and now playing the withholding card makes perfect sense. There will be a lot of white noise about this but I suspect that nobody will make that much fuss at least in the British domestic political arena. EU bigwigs sounding off about us not coughing up plays right into the Leave narrative with zero votes to be gained in trying to claim we should pay the EU more than we need to.

It's a win-win for Johnson.

But always keep an eye on the main game here which is any and every attempt to keep the UK a captive market for EU goods. Only game in town. The money is ultimately a side show, at least in terms of this particular contribution. That is why the EU will play-hard ball right until the end. They NEED the UK to remain a cash cow for numerous EU memberstates who stand to lose billions if they have to compete with other producers for the UK £ in your pocket.


 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Matov Flag 27 Aug 19 7.25pm

[Link]

All starting to heat up rather nicely now. The phoney war of August is coming to an end and with September looking like it is going to be the definition of interesting.

Also just seen Nigel Farages offer. Johnson backs 'No Deal' fully and the Brexit Party stand aside in any election.

Reckon Johnson will force Parliaments hand within days of it sitting again. Either back him and Brexit on October 31st or revoke A50. With Labour MP's to swing it for him. Absolutely convinced of that now. Too many stand to lose seats in a Brexit General Election.


Edited by Matov (27 Aug 2019 7.29pm)

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Invalid user 2019 Flag 27 Aug 19 7.54pm

Originally posted by Matov

But that ship has sailed and now playing the withholding card makes perfect sense. There will be a lot of white noise about this but I suspect that nobody will make that much fuss at least in the British domestic political arena. EU bigwigs sounding off about us not coughing up plays right into the Leave narrative with zero votes to be gained in trying to claim we should pay the EU more than we need to.

It's a win-win for Johnson.

But always keep an eye on the main game here which is any and every attempt to keep the UK a captive market for EU goods. Only game in town. The money is ultimately a side show, at least in terms of this particular contribution. That is why the EU will play-hard ball right until the end. They NEED the UK to remain a cash cow for numerous EU memberstates who stand to lose billions if they have to compete with other producers for the UK £ in your pocket.


Yes it's all about how the hand is played at this stage. Who blinks first. May was a walkover but I think Boris, through a combination of seeing what didn't work, and ideas about his own legacy is unlikely to back down. What the eventual outcome of that will be for any proposed deal is up for debate I suppose. It's looking like a 50/50 between a rehashed deal and No Deal in my view now. It's surprising how much common ground can be found as the clock ticks down.

 

Matov Flag 28 Aug 19 6.58am

Originally posted by dollardays

May was a walkover but I think Boris, through a combination of seeing what didn't work, and ideas about his own legacy is unlikely to back down.


Johnson cannot back down. That is what has impressed me (and I am not a fan of his). All his rhetoric about us leaving on October 31st means he has effectively burnt all of his bridges and sunk all of his boats.

If we are still in the EU on November 1st, then even if he has still somehow managed to cling on in No.10 he is a dead man walking. No if's or buts about that. The Tories are finished as a political force in this country for decades if they do not get us out by October 31st. They would actually be better off fighting and losing a GE before then than actually trying to stay in power having not delivered on October 31st. Halloween is their Rubicon moment.

And having seen Nigel Farage yesterday with his offer to effectively back Boris if he goes for a clean break from the EU, then I beginning to hope that this might actually happen now because it is by far the most preferable option.

The EU cannot offer us any kind of deal that might help the UK. Its very survival as an institution depends on it protecting the captive markets for its member states. And that is what the backstop has always been about. A way to trapping us so that we have to carry on buying EU agricultural produce at the expense of cheaper global alternatives along with paying for Brussels. There never was a deal worth signing up to.


 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Badger11 Flag Beckenham 28 Aug 19 7.58am

Good analysis from Matov if we do have a GE before 31 Oct Farage can either make or break the Tories.

I said previously that Corbyn may not want a GE before we Brexit as if we do it will be all about that topic and Labour do not have a convincing policy.

Yesterday when the rebels met Corbyn decided against calling a no confidence motion immediately when Parliament meets. This is now a game of chess with multiple levels and players.

Johnson Wants some form of Brexit too little and the ERG and Farage will sink the Tories. Too much it may not get through Parliament and the opposition could seize control of the timetable.

Corbyn wants to be PM but also wants Brexit but doesn't want to be seen as that by his Remain party. If he provokes a GE before 31 Oct he will have to fight as a Remain party or face losing votes to the other Remain parties. If he does fight as a Remain party he runs the real risk of losing votes to Farage. I suspect he wants a GE post Brexit so he can fight on traditional party lines.

The EU are sitting on the fence hoping the Remainers seize control so they don't have to do anything. If Boris exits no deal and wins a big GE majority it will make it harder for the EU to agree any trade deal post Brexit. So would it be better to agree a deal now whilst Boris is still fairly weak?

Remain politicians. They have stopped talking about a people's vote I think they have realised there is no appetite for that amongst the public. Their position appears to have harden as they are now looking at repealing article 50. They run the risk of alienating the voters which is why they keep talking about not leaving without a deal to sound reasonable. I am getting fed up with the media for not asking the simple question what deal? There is only one deal on the table and Parliament has rejected that 3 times. If the EU continue to refuse to negotiate then talk of not leaving without a deal is completely meaningless, it is also a fig leaf that the public can see through when they say we need a deal they really mean we want to stay.

All to play for who will blink first.

 


One more point

Matov Flag 28 Aug 19 8.49am

Originally posted by Badger11


I said previously that Corbyn may not want a GE before we Brexit as if we do it will be all about that topic and Labour do not have a convincing policy.

Absolutely. It will be slaughtered daily with contradictory messages coming out all over the place. To give credit where it is due Labour has managed to walk its Brexit tight rope without to many slips BUT a GE fought primarily on Brexit simply means the rope will fall.

And watching Corbyn last night as he spoke about his meeting earlier in the day with the other opposition parties and it is clear that is not a man comfortable with the stance he is having to take. Compare it to Farage and the contrast in both tone and body language is striking.

Corbyn loathes the EU. His voting record shows that. And if he were not Labour leader, he would be one of the leading voices on the left for us to leave ASAP.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Matov Flag 28 Aug 19 9.35am

Looks like Johnson is about to cross the Rubicon. Lot of chatter out there about him going to the Queen to discuss suspending Parliament from mid-September.

It is a huge f***ing trap. He wants their outrage. He wants them throwing all their toys out of the pram. And will offer them a vote. Revoke or Back Brexit.

LOL. It is beautiful in a f***ed up way. True political showmanship on a scale we have not seen in decades. A defining moment in this countries history.

The Remainers will be bursting veins in their heads.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Badger11 Flag Beckenham 28 Aug 19 9.52am

Originally posted by Matov

Looks like Johnson is about to cross the Rubicon. Lot of chatter out there about him going to the Queen to discuss suspending Parliament from mid-September.

It is a huge f***ing trap. He wants their outrage. He wants them throwing all their toys out of the pram. And will offer them a vote. Revoke or Back Brexit.

LOL. It is beautiful in a f***ed up way. True political showmanship on a scale we have not seen in decades. A defining moment in this countries history.

The Remainers will be bursting veins in their heads.

I agree I don't think the public want a GE and they are pretty fed up with politicians from all parties. If Johnson can position himself as the reasonable guy trying to get the job done and the Remainers as unreasonable forcing a GE on the public he will win by a landslide.

Farage was on good form last night he pointed out that Corbyn is tying himself up in knots. Corbyn said that a no deal is a Bankers Brexit and yet he has used exactly the same language about the EU as being a bankers club for the last 30 years. It was comical Farage reading out Corbyn's previous anti EU quotes and then comparing them to Corbyn's latest anti no deal quotes, they were the same language I guess Corbyn is hoping no one will ntoice.

 


One more point

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 28 Aug 19 9.59am

Originally posted by Matov

Looks like Johnson is about to cross the Rubicon. Lot of chatter out there about him going to the Queen to discuss suspending Parliament from mid-September.

It is a huge f***ing trap. He wants their outrage. He wants them throwing all their toys out of the pram. And will offer them a vote. Revoke or Back Brexit.

LOL. It is beautiful in a f***ed up way. True political showmanship on a scale we have not seen in decades. A defining moment in this countries history.

The Remainers will be bursting veins in their heads.

It's leavers who should be bursting veins in their heads.

What price 'parliamentary sovereignty' now?

 

Matov Flag 28 Aug 19 10.03am

Originally posted by steeleye20

It's leavers who should be bursting veins in their heads.

What price 'parliamentary sovereignty' now?

Except it is line with accepted Parliamentary procedure.

But Parliament will have the chance to have a vote of No Confidence before it happens. How much more democracy do you want?

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 28 Aug 19 10.21am

Originally posted by Matov

Except it is line with accepted Parliamentary procedure.

But Parliament will have the chance to have a vote of No Confidence before it happens. How much more democracy do you want?

Well enough democracy to prevent a right-wing coup-d'etat and installation of a tin-pot dictator.

Such as has actually happened here.

 

Invalid user 2019 Flag 28 Aug 19 11.02am

Originally posted by dollardays

How this might all pan out [Link]

A good time for me to bump this link I posted before (Little can be done to stop Johnson crashing UK out of EU - [Link] It lays out the timetable for what is and isn't likely to happen if there is a no confidence vote.

 

davenotamonkey Flag 28 Aug 19 11.15am

Originally posted by Matov

Looks like Johnson is about to cross the Rubicon. Lot of chatter out there about him going to the Queen to discuss suspending Parliament from mid-September.

It is a huge f***ing trap. He wants their outrage. He wants them throwing all their toys out of the pram. And will offer them a vote. Revoke or Back Brexit.

LOL. It is beautiful in a f***ed up way. True political showmanship on a scale we have not seen in decades. A defining moment in this countries history.

The Remainers will be bursting veins in their heads.

It's delicious. The deranged Remainiac tw@atterati have completely lost their 5hit.

"It's a coup!"
"No deal is death!"
"Anti-democratic!"
"General Strike!"

Genuinely hilarious. The past THREE years. Cheering on EVERY single time political chicanery or outright s***ting on the constitution hands them a victory against Brexit. Whooping with glee on forthcoming plans to take over executive function of government to meet their ends. Hush-hush impartial meetings with the impartial speaker about impartially roadblocking an Act of Parliament to impartially block Brexit.

But yes, exercising a NEW government's right to start a NEW parliamentary session is a coup. It's anti-democratic.

Roll on the General Election. These pro-EU nut jobs have now gone full-rabid. It's nice to watch, but we need to move on and start building a future outside of the EU. May should have started that 3 years ago, but she had her Remainiac legacy to fulfill.


 

Stirlingsays Flag 28 Aug 19 11.43am

I'm on my second bag of popcorn.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Lyons550 Flag Shirley 28 Aug 19 11.45am

Looks like he's asked to suspend parliment [Link]

House of Commons Speaker John Bercow said it was a "constitutional outrage".


Edited by Lyons550 (28 Aug 2019 11.45am)

 


The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Mapletree Flag Croydon 28 Aug 19 11.47am

If through manipulation, Johnson succeeds in taking us out of the UK without a deal he will have done that:

1) against the wishes of the majority of people in the UK

2) against the wishes of the VAST majority of people who are against a no-deal Brexit.

I for one am gathering up my molotov cocktails. Finally I do believe the British people will take to the streets.

In any case, longer term this marks the end of the Conservative party. As soon as it hits the fan, which it inevitably will at first (even if the blarney about longer term gain is true), the public will specifically blame the Conservatives and the Government that took it upon itself to circumvent discussions on the nature of the long term future of the country.

So a small group of self-serving individuals finally get their way and avoid all of the scrutinies built into our system over centuries. They will surely 'get theirs'.

 

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 28 Aug 19 11.50am

Also looking forward to never hearing any whooping in tv audiences whenever a host or celebrity deliberately tries for one with their comment about leaving or whatever it is.

 


COYP

Stirlingsays Flag 28 Aug 19 11.55am

Originally posted by Mapletree

If through manipulation, Johnson succeeds in taking us out of the UK without a deal he will have done that:

1) against the wishes of the majority of people in the UK

2) against the wishes of the VAST majority of people who are against a no-deal Brexit.

I for one am gathering up my molotov cocktails. Finally I do believe the British people will take to the streets.

In any case, longer term this marks the end of the Conservative party. As soon as it hits the fan, which it inevitably will at first (even if the blarney about longer term gain is true), the public will specifically blame the Conservatives and the Government that took it upon itself to circumvent discussions on the nature of the long term future of the country.

So a small group of self-serving individuals finally get their way and avoid all of the scrutinies built into our system over centuries. They will surely 'get theirs'.


Munch munch.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 28 Aug 19 11.55am

Originally posted by Mapletree

If through manipulation, Johnson succeeds in taking us out of the UK without a deal he will have done that:

1) against the wishes of the majority of people in the UK

2) against the wishes of the VAST majority of people who are against a no-deal Brexit.

I for one am gathering up my molotov cocktails. Finally I do believe the British people will take to the streets.

In any case, longer term this marks the end of the Conservative party. As soon as it hits the fan, which it inevitably will at first (even if the blarney about longer term gain is true), the public will specifically blame the Conservatives and the Government that took it upon itself to circumvent discussions on the nature of the long term future of the country.

So a small group of self-serving individuals finally get their way and avoid all of the scrutinies built into our system over centuries. They will surely 'get theirs'.

1. They should’ve voted in the referendum then.

2. The people hell bent on preventing Brexit can blame themselves.

You’ll get a million or 2 people singing silly songs on coaches up from Dorset etc, waving EU flags and banners saying they’re European and not British. Fvck we should be afraid.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (28 Aug 2019 12.07pm)

 


COYP

Stirlingsays Flag 28 Aug 19 12.01pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

1. They should’ve voted in the referendum then.

2. The people hell bent on preventing Brexit can blame themselves.

You’ll get a million or 2 people singing silly songs on coaches up from Dorset etc, saving EU flags with banners saying they’re European and not British. Fvck we should be afraid.

They are getting 'theirs'.

Edited by Stirlingsays (28 Aug 2019 12.23pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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