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June 3 2024 7.02am

Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 19 Mar 22 9.18am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Nato is not a world or European policeman. It's a mutual defence agreement, to which Ukraine does not belong. So whilst its members are as distressed as everyone about what is happening, and could, theoretically, get actively involved individually and are providing support, Nato as an organisation cannot. No member has been attacked.

That Putin blames Nato is just him sowing disinformation and blowing a smoke screen to cover his aggression. This is Putin's war. Nato has no, and has never had, any aggressive purpose. Its role is wholly defensive. It exists to deter aggression and will respond only if that deterrence fails.

The reason Putin doesn't like Nato expansion is not because of any military threat to Russia. There isn't any. He doesn't like it because he knows that it restrains his own ambitions. The threats come internally. Having successful, growing democracies on his borders, protected by Nato, could be seen by the western Russian regions as models for themselves and create unrest.

If Nato were purely a defensive organisation.....and I agree it should be purely a defensive organisation then why were missile systems put in Poland and Romania? Lockheed Martin put them in and admits that the system's launch tubes are capable for both interception and nuclear attack.

That was nuts.....Reducing the response time to basically nothing.

That is called escalation.....that isn't moving towards peace. Expanding Nato eastwards expressly without Russian involvement was also foolish. There should have been a commitment that Russia enter Nato....no such commitment was ever given.

This is Putin's war, however it is you pushing disinformation when you state that the west has played no role in creating the path to this.

We had thirty years to embrace Russia....the west literally created Putin out of ignorance and greed....which Yeltsin tried to warn about.....oh and by the way, Yeltsin promoted Putin...twice. He knew far more about what was possible than the people you believe are blameless.

Edited by Stirlingsays (19 Mar 2022 9.34am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View The groover's Profile The groover Flag Danbury 19 Mar 22 9.20am Send a Private Message to The groover Add The groover as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Nato is not a world or European policeman. It's a mutual defence agreement, to which Ukraine does not belong. So whilst its members are as distressed as everyone about what is happening, and could, theoretically, get actively involved individually and are providing support, Nato as an organisation cannot. No member has been attacked.

That Putin blames Nato is just him sowing disinformation and blowing a smoke screen to cover his aggression. This is Putin's war. Nato has no, and has never had, any aggressive purpose. Its role is wholly defensive. It exists to deter aggression and will respond only if that deterrence fails.

The reason Putin doesn't like Nato expansion is not because of any military threat to Russia. There isn't any. He doesn't like it because he knows that it restrains his own ambitions. The threats come internally. Having successful, growing democracies on his borders, protected by Nato, could be seen by the western Russian regions as models for themselves and create unrest.

Exactly, if NATO gets involved its 3rd world war time and all of the consequences that it comes with. i.e. Even if we start to win a desperate putin will press the red button. Then we all die.

 

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View Wisbech Eagle's Profile Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 19 Mar 22 9.46am Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

If Nato were purely a defensive organisation.....and I agree it should be purely a defensive organisation then why were nuclear missiles put in Poland and Romanian?

That was nuts.....Reducing the response time to basically nothing.

That is called escalation.....that isn't moving towards peace.

This is Putin's war, however it is you pushing disinformation when you state that the west has played no role in creating the path to this.

We had thirty years to embrace Russia....the west literally created Putin out of ignorance and greed....which Yeltsin tried to warn about.....oh and by the way, Yeltsin promoted Putin...twice. He knew far more about what was possible than the people you believe are blameless.

Edited by Stirlingsays (19 Mar 2022 9.18am)

Putting nuclear missiles anywhere is to deter. I am not a military strategist, but putting them as close as possible to potential aggressors own assets would appear to maximise that.

Negotiating peace with someone like Putin is probably impossible. Containment is more likely the target, with moves towards peace postponed until a more trustworthy partner is in the chair. Even then, with Russia, peace could only be negotiated from a position of strength.

We have tried to "embrace" Russia. We have included them in cultural and sporting activities, frequently overlooking their cheating. We have traded with them and shown them the benefits of openness. It doesn't work, was never going to work, and cannot work. Russia is not the west. It has its own history and culture. Russians think differently. I haven't had a lot to do with them, but I have been to Moscow and presented to businessmen there. It's different. "Embracing" them will not happen until their own people decide they want to be embraced. Finding ways of living alongside each other, until that happens, might.

 


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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 19 Mar 22 10.02am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Putting nuclear missiles anywhere is to deter. I am not a military strategist, but putting them as close as possible to potential aggressors own assets would appear to maximise that.

Negotiating peace with someone like Putin is probably impossible. Containment is more likely the target, with moves towards peace postponed until a more trustworthy partner is in the chair. Even then, with Russia, peace could only be negotiated from a position of strength.

We have tried to "embrace" Russia. We have included them in cultural and sporting activities, frequently overlooking their cheating. We have traded with them and shown them the benefits of openness. It doesn't work, was never going to work, and cannot work. Russia is not the west. It has its own history and culture. Russians think differently. I haven't had a lot to do with them, but I have been to Moscow and presented to businessmen there. It's different. "Embracing" them will not happen until their own people decide they want to be embraced. Finding ways of living alongside each other, until that happens, might.

The statement that, 'Putting nuclear missiles anywhere is to deter.' is literally an insane statement.

That's f***ing insane!

'Negotiating peace with someone like Putin is probably impossible'

Another insane statement. If that were true we might as well start nuclear war now......You must be losing your marbles. After 9/11 Putin literally offered the US use of his bases for its operations. You simply either don't know the history of what you are talking about or you've lost it.

We have tried to "embrace" Russia.

Rubbish, they actually tried to change to the western system after the fall of the Soviet republic and all we did was support Yeltsin oligarchs rape of their economy and take advantage of their military weakness.

Their resulting poverty and our dishonest actions allowed a figure like Putin to take over.....we even had years where he was open to the west to break down the tensions.

You are kind of representative of the problem. You want to portray history is a disfigured and reductionist good v evil picture that is far more like the religion you apparently detest.

Putin has always been a mafia type figure and that's how he's running Russia....however, people like you lie and look to present false pictures of the past that promote myths rather than truths.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 19 Mar 22 10.46am Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

I really don't understand any tendency to side with Putin. You may disagree with a lot of "our own" but still preferable to that guy, no matter how many silly baby essays and speeches he writes.
Our leaders may be absolute gobs***es but probably just about preferable to a dictator who has now well overreached his limits of power. That we need to sort out our own society and politics is pretty irrelevant when you are openly attacked. Time for that later.
There were loads of anti government people in previous conflicts. Nearly all knew where their bread was buttered ultimately - other than the odd deluded/radical fool.

 


Red and Blue Army!

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 19 Mar 22 11.11am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by ASCPFC

I really don't understand any tendency to side with Putin. You may disagree with a lot of "our own" but still preferable to that guy, no matter how many silly baby essays and speeches he writes.
Our leaders may be absolute gobs***es but probably just about preferable to a dictator who has now well overreached his limits of power. That we need to sort out our own society and politics is pretty irrelevant when you are openly attacked. Time for that later.
There were loads of anti government people in previous conflicts. Nearly all knew where their bread was buttered ultimately - other than the odd deluded/radical fool.

The truth isn't 'siding'.

It's a false choice. We aren't going to have Putin as leader are we? Just because Hitler liked dogs it doesn't mean that agreeing that dogs are generally a good thing doesn't mean you like Hitler.

It's not as though acknowledging the truth means that suddenly Putin is the foundation of truth and it doesn't mean that the truth comes from our side either. Let's not forget that we are the 'side' whose politics have allowed your children's bits to be chopped off because they like the colour pink or some other BS.

I'm on the west's side but I'm never on the side of a lie if I can help it.

Edited by Stirlingsays (19 Mar 2022 2.29pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Wisbech Eagle's Profile Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 19 Mar 22 11.12am Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

The statement that, 'Putting nuclear missiles anywhere is to deter.' is literally an insane statement.

That's f***ing insane!

'Negotiating peace with someone like Putin is probably impossible'

Another insane statement. If that were true we might as well start nuclear war now......You must be losing your marbles. After 9/11 Putin literally offered the US use of his bases for its operations. You simply either don't know the history of what you are talking about or you've lost it.

We have tried to "embrace" Russia.

Rubbish, they actually tried to change to the western system after the fall of the Soviet republic and all we did was support Yeltsin oligarchs rape of their economy and take advantage of their military weakness.

Their resulting poverty and our dishonest actions allowed a figure like Putin to take over.....we even had years where he was open to the west to break down the tensions.

You are kind of representative of the problem. You want to portray history is a disfigured and reductionist good v evil picture that is far more like the religion you apparently detest.

Putin has always been a mafia type figure and that's how he's running Russia....however, people like you lie and look to present false pictures of the past that promote myths rather than truths.

Then the whole strategy of western defence in my lifetime has been "insane"! We have a nuclear deterrent. They are intended to deter, not to threaten. Maybe the difference is too subtle. We have committed to "no first use". Does that help understanding?

To negotiate peace with anyone demands certainty that the commitments made will be honoured. Trust alone is not enough, but there could not even be that basis on which to build anything else. Given everything that has happened since Putin became Russia's President, it is impossible to see how the west could negotiate a peace deal with him. Continuing containment is the only realistic, achievable outcome, followed by economic pressure encouraging the development of mutual reductions in military spending and the gradual lowering of tension.

The only reason we DON'T have nuclear war now is us following the policy we have. If Putin thought he could get away with it, he would. He cares nothing for the loss of life or environmental impacts.

That there will be occasions when the interests of enemies coincide has always been true. Russia, under Stalin, the USA under Roosevelt and the UK under Churchill united to defeat Hitler. Tackling Islamic extremism is no different. It suited Putin's interest to try to eliminate Al Qaeda. He didn't do it from any feelings of support for the USA!

Whilst Gorbachev came to see the benefits of social democracy, Russia as a whole didn't try to change, and that flirtation soon evaporated. It was a false dawn over a landscape which is always full of shadows.

If you study Putin's attitudes, via his speeches and statements over the years he has been in power (which I have been able to do this past week, being confined at home with Covid), you would understand he has never been open to the west and a reduction of tensions. His ambition to restore Russia's "greatness", which he thinks was destroyed with the collapse of the Soviet Union, has been hiding in plain sight. Any conciliatory noises he made were only to lull people into being willing sheep in his plans. He has always made me feel uncomfortable. Studying this, and listening to expert historians, has firmed up why that was. Those who don't see that, and continue to regard him as some kind of misunderstood figure who we have driven into doing the things he has done, are in denial of the reality.

For sure, he operates like a mob boss. Russia is effectively now a mafia state. It was bad enough when I visited, but is worse now.

That Putin is the embodiment of evil to a western mind is undoubtedly true. Not though in his, or in those in Russia who support him. As I said, they are different. We need to recognise the reality of the implications of that, rather than simply moralise about good and evil.

The response of the west has been impressive. Germany's sea change commitment to building up their military, very important. The leadership and steadfastness of the USA, reassuring (despite the constant sniping at their President). The contribution and effectiveness of US and UK intelligence, vital, and very concerning to Putin.

Now we need not to waver once the economic consequences kick in.

Edited by Wisbech Eagle (19 Mar 2022 11.18am)

 


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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 19 Mar 22 11.22am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

I'm not going to involved in this continual punch and judy show with a fruitcake.....where I get cast in the role of defending Putin....Putin's a cretin.

WE is that man willing to tell you that nukes in Poland are deterrence but nukes in Cuba were aggression.......The world has no hope with clowns like this.

As I've said from the start, Putin is bad....This thread contains my thoughts, which are commonly held, on the disastrous road that led us here. I'm not going to repeat myself. If people want to believe that it's all Putin, be my guest...it'll make the f***ing disaster these moronic elites have given us easier to bear.

After the madness of covid and now this I'm just about done. Just listen to the likes of WE and your other soviet like commissars and keep smiling.

Edited by Stirlingsays (19 Mar 2022 11.24am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Hrolf The Ganger's Profile Hrolf The Ganger Flag 19 Mar 22 11.45am Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

I think we are in a difficult position. If we don't make some effort to bolster the defences of NATO countries, then there is little to stop Putin marching in.

It risks escalation, but we cannot do what we did in '39 and just wait for the tanks to roll through Poland and have no answer until they are in France.

The lesson America learned from WW2 was, don't come to the party late. Britain learned not to try and appease megalomaniacs.

The problem now is that we have the atomic bomb. It might be better to deter Putin from a ground war which he cannot win, rather than allowing one to start with inaction. Putin could use nukes if he is losing, but hopefully someone in his military will stop him before that happened.

If Putin is determined to escalate, then nothing we do or don't do will alter that.

 

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View Wisbech Eagle's Profile Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 19 Mar 22 12.12pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'm not going to involved in this continual punch and judy show with a fruitcake.....where I get cast in the role of defending Putin....Putin's a cretin.

WE is that man willing to tell you that nukes in Poland are deterrence but nukes in Cuba were aggression.......The world has no hope with clowns like this.

As I've said from the start, Putin is bad....This thread contains my thoughts, which are commonly held, on the disastrous road that led us here. I'm not going to repeat myself. If people want to believe that it's all Putin, be my guest...it'll make the f***ing disaster these moronic elites have given us easier to bear.

After the madness of covid and now this I'm just about done. Just listen to the likes of WE and your other soviet like commissars and keep smiling.

Edited by Stirlingsays (19 Mar 2022 11.24am)

As I am pretty sure others will realise anyone who cannot see the difference between those two situations is the "fruitcake".

Placing a nuclear deterrent in Poland is not aggression. It is not intended to be used against, or threaten, Russia. It is intended to deter Russia from using their nuclear weapons. Describing it as "aggression", even in a forum like this, is to provide propaganda on behalf of an enemy. It's not the truth.

Russia seeking to position nuclear weapons on Cuba wasn't accompanied by a commitment to no first use by an alliance like Nato. It was though 60 years ago when the balance of power was different to today, and the USA was able to use its muscle to remove the threat. These days, with sea-bourne missile systems able to provide sufficient guarantees, Russia doesn't need to think about using a surrogate like Cuba, but if they did, I don't think the USA would now be able to stop them, although I also doubt whether Cuba would accept them. It's not going to happen. You can position submarines much closer to New York, Los Angeles, Sun Francisco etc than you can to Moscow or most of Russia.

Russia and Poland have a history. Poland rightly fears Russian aggression. Poland is a member of Nato.

The Bay of Pigs failed. The USA has wooed Cuba since. Cuba no longer fears the USA. The Russian/Cuba alliance has faded over the years, although it's having new life blown into it now.

The idea that I am a "soviet commissar" at least made me laugh. Nothing I can imagine is further from the truth!

 


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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 19 Mar 22 12.36pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend


Nato has never had a 'no first use' policy and has argued against that using reasons that can be found in this link.

[Link]

The only countries that have a 'no first use' policy are China and India. Russia had one for about ten years in the eighties.

Russia's current policy on use of nuclear weapons was updated in 2014 and says they will be used in two situations:

: in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies.

: in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.

Truth matters.....myth is used to justify and control.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Forest Hillbilly's Profile Forest Hillbilly Flag in a hidey-hole 19 Mar 22 1.08pm Send a Private Message to Forest Hillbilly Add Forest Hillbilly as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

As I am pretty sure others will realise anyone who cannot see the difference between those two situations is the "fruitcake".

Placing a nuclear deterrent in Poland is not aggression. It is not intended to be used against, or threaten, Russia. It is intended to deter Russia from using their nuclear weapons. Describing it as "aggression", even in a forum like this, is to provide propaganda on behalf of an enemy. It's not the truth.

Russia seeking to position nuclear weapons on Cuba wasn't accompanied by a commitment to no first use by an alliance like Nato. It was though 60 years ago when the balance of power was different to today, and the USA was able to use its muscle to remove the threat. These days, with sea-bourne missile systems able to provide sufficient guarantees, Russia doesn't need to think about using a surrogate like Cuba, but if they did, I don't think the USA would now be able to stop them, although I also doubt whether Cuba would accept them. It's not going to happen. You can position submarines much closer to New York, Los Angeles, Sun Francisco etc than you can to Moscow or most of Russia.

Russia and Poland have a history. Poland rightly fears Russian aggression. Poland is a member of Nato.

The Bay of Pigs failed. The USA has wooed Cuba since. Cuba no longer fears the USA. The Russian/Cuba alliance has faded over the years, although it's having new life blown into it now.

The idea that I am a "soviet commissar" at least made me laugh. Nothing I can imagine is further from the truth!

I would seriously doubt anyone of any intelligence would swallow that opening line. And thus a big FAIL from me.

 


"The facts have changed", Rishi Sunak

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