Well thought posts by Mat and Stirling. I tend to agree with the analysis, but the EU also has to take into account that the UK should not be seen leaving the EU as beneficial.
That has the potential to push other members into Referendums on whether to leave. Then the house of cards is on very shaky ground.
At the moment BJ is on the front foot, and rightly so. A No-Deal will bvgger a lot of British firms, but equally BJ is in a position of negotiating strength.
The EU has a weak hand , so its only real powers are to make the negotiations as protracted and painful as possible.
I suppose what it will come down to is who has the most to lose.

Absolutely. Brussels must want to shield its eyes every time it looks over its shoulder. France is in virtual meltdown with state-sanctioned Police brutality on a scale that is almost beyond belief (imagine if this level of unrest was taking place every week in the US against Trump. We would have it 24/7 news coverage here in the Uk), in Italy the march of Salvini and the rise of the AfD in Germany. Add in rioting currently breaking out on Greek Islands sick to death of being dumping grounds for migrants and with populist movements gaining traction all over and it must make them want to weep.

Throw in this coronavirus outbreak along with Turkey making noises about opening the illegal migrant flood-gates once more and 2020 is not looking rosy for Brussels.

Economic sensibilities should suggest a deal can be done but I suspect Brussels do not want one. This is all about them acting the tough guy.

Waste of time even talking to them. The UK should be preparing for a Granite Brexit as the default.

The EU is under huge threat of a break up if the effects of the coronavirus continue much longer.

The last meaningful General Elections (Germany, France, Holland and Austria) all occurred in 2017 and the Nationalist parties were largely soundly beaten. However, they were, and remain, quite strong opposition parties.

History shows that the incumbent government, of any colour or political persuasion, gets blamed by the electorate for recessions. If this current crisis continues much longer, bearing in mind banks and governments can't find a cure by simply reducing interest rates (especially when, in most cases, they're already negative or close to negative) then the world is heading towards a global recession, quite possibly at least as bad as the one that followed the Financial Crisis in 2008.

And the next round of European elections will arrive slap bang into, or soon after it. Who is in opposition to step forward? Eurosceptic parties.

It's also why any talk of the Trade War has disappeared quicker than a Benteke scoring spree. Trump needs to avoid a recession this year to get re-elected, but the shorter timeframe is in his favour. It's not in the EU's.

So, ironically, the beginning of the end for the EU may be caused, not by Brexit, but by a strange bug from inland China that was able to spread worldwide through a combination of globalisation, open borders, and rank bad luck and timing.

The EU is under huge threat of a break up if the effects of the coronavirus continue much longer.

The last meaningful General Elections (Germany, France, Holland and Austria) all occurred in 2017 and the Nationalist parties were largely soundly beaten. However, they were, and remain, quite strong opposition parties.

History shows that the incumbent government, of any colour or political persuasion, gets blamed by the electorate for recessions. If this current crisis continues much longer, bearing in mind banks and governments can't find a cure by simply reducing interest rates (especially when, in most cases, they're already negative or close to negative) then the world is heading towards a global recession, quite possibly at least as bad as the one that followed the Financial Crisis in 2008.

And the next round of European elections will arrive slap bang into, or soon after it. Who is in opposition to step forward? Eurosceptic parties.

It's also why any talk of the Trade War has disappeared quicker than a Benteke scoring spree. Trump needs to avoid a recession this year to get re-elected, but the shorter timeframe is in his favour. It's not in the EU's.

So, ironically, the beginning of the end for the EU may be caused, not by Brexit, but by a strange bug from inland China that was able to spread worldwide through a combination of globalisation, open borders, and rank bad luck and timing.

French winegrowers are struggling to sell their wine because of US import tariffs so they now have a wine lake.

Still the good news is that the UK is still importing their wine tariff free, well for another 9 months.

I'm sure they will be delighted with the EU taking a hard line with those pesky Brits I mean it's not like the UK consumer has a choice, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Chile, Argentina, California .....

How to put yourself out of business:

[Link]