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the silurian The garden of England.(not really) 10 Dec 20 8.48am
Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger Do shut up. You really are a piece of work Wisbech. You just can't accept it can you. You think we should go back begging to the EU just because things get a little rocky? No, it's really just that you want to get your own old narcissistic way at all costs, isn't it? Pathetic. Edited by Hrolf The Ganger (09 Dec 2020 11.36pm) Cornish remoaner, always has been
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the silurian

The garden of England.(not really) 10 Dec 20 8.48am

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

Do shut up.

You really are a piece of work Wisbech. You just can't accept it can you.
You think we should go back begging to the EU just because things get a little rocky? No, it's really just that you want to get your own old narcissistic way at all costs, isn't it?

Pathetic.

Edited by Hrolf The Ganger (09 Dec 2020 11.36pm)

Cornish remoaner, always has been

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becky over the moon 10 Dec 20 9.00am
Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle The trade deals we are doing with others are broadly on the same terms as we already have as EU members. So we negotiate something we already had and then claim a success? Yes, because we no longer have to pay the EU XXXX billion a year 'membership' for the privilege of having those deals. What's not to like about that? A stairway to Heaven and a Highway to Hell give some indication of expected traffic numbers
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becky

over the moon 10 Dec 20 9.00am

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

The trade deals we are doing with others are broadly on the same terms as we already have as EU members. So we negotiate something we already had and then claim a success?

Yes, because we no longer have to pay the EU XXXX billion a year 'membership' for the privilege of having those deals. What's not to like about that?

A stairway to Heaven and a Highway to Hell give some indication of expected traffic numbers

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Badger11 Beckenham 10 Dec 20 9.01am
WE may I suggest you start your own little business. Selling T shirts with a UK / EU Remain symbol and a "I told you So" slogan . If your correct you will sell millions. One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 10 Dec 20 9.01am

WE may I suggest you start your own little business.

Selling T shirts with a UK / EU Remain symbol and a "I told you So" slogan .

If your correct you will sell millions.

One more point

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Matov 10 Dec 20 9.37am
Originally posted by BlueJay A lot of it is saving face I'd say. I expect we'll get a late in the day deal that both sides will claim demonstrates they held firm and that it is on their terms. To a certain extent, maybe. But politically, it is the EU that is in much more of a mire than the UK. Johnson has a huge majority, still enjoys reasonably good polling on a variety of fronts despite the s*** show that 2020 has been. The issue for the EU is less about Brexit now but more about the wider cohesion in the East. And whilst Macron might make noises about fishing, it is Poland and Hungary that causing Brussels far more headaches at the moment. The EU know that the UK is gone and not coming back. No British election is going to include even a hint of us rejoining the EU for probably 25 years at a minimum and even then that presupposes the EU still exists in a recognisable form. Politically if there is no chance of a deal then Johnson stands far more to gain by having walked a while ago. Probably back in October. Logistically it would have made sense and given what happened in the 2019 GE, there are zero electoral downsides to no deal. The people making all the noise are not the people who would ever vote Tory in the first place. Hence why I think this is now all about essentially forcing the EU to pass the agreement without to much time for detailed scrutiny. Johnson has all the political cards on his side with only Scotland the possible fly in the ointment but that is a solvable problem with once again, no real downsides politically for Johnson eve if Scotland do vote to leave eventually. Again, no votes up there that matter. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

10 Dec 20 9.37am

Originally posted by BlueJay

A lot of it is saving face I'd say. I expect we'll get a late in the day deal that both sides will claim demonstrates they held firm and that it is on their terms.

To a certain extent, maybe.

But politically, it is the EU that is in much more of a mire than the UK. Johnson has a huge majority, still enjoys reasonably good polling on a variety of fronts despite the s*** show that 2020 has been.

The issue for the EU is less about Brexit now but more about the wider cohesion in the East. And whilst Macron might make noises about fishing, it is Poland and Hungary that causing Brussels far more headaches at the moment.

The EU know that the UK is gone and not coming back. No British election is going to include even a hint of us rejoining the EU for probably 25 years at a minimum and even then that presupposes the EU still exists in a recognisable form.

Politically if there is no chance of a deal then Johnson stands far more to gain by having walked a while ago. Probably back in October. Logistically it would have made sense and given what happened in the 2019 GE, there are zero electoral downsides to no deal. The people making all the noise are not the people who would ever vote Tory in the first place.

Hence why I think this is now all about essentially forcing the EU to pass the agreement without to much time for detailed scrutiny. Johnson has all the political cards on his side with only Scotland the possible fly in the ointment but that is a solvable problem with once again, no real downsides politically for Johnson eve if Scotland do vote to leave eventually. Again, no votes up there that matter.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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Badger11 Beckenham 10 Dec 20 10.17am
Originally posted by Matov To a certain extent, maybe. But politically, it is the EU that is in much more of a mire than the UK. Johnson has a huge majority, still enjoys reasonably good polling on a variety of fronts despite the s*** show that 2020 has been. The issue for the EU is less about Brexit now but more about the wider cohesion in the East. And whilst Macron might make noises about fishing, it is Poland and Hungary that causing Brussels far more headaches at the moment. The EU know that the UK is gone and not coming back. No British election is going to include even a hint of us rejoining the EU for probably 25 years at a minimum and even then that presupposes the EU still exists in a recognisable form. Politically if there is no chance of a deal then Johnson stands far more to gain by having walked a while ago. Probably back in October. Logistically it would have made sense and given what happened in the 2019 GE, there are zero electoral downsides to no deal. The people making all the noise are not the people who would ever vote Tory in the first place. Hence why I think this is now all about essentially forcing the EU to pass the agreement without to much time for detailed scrutiny. Johnson has all the political cards on his side with only Scotland the possible fly in the ointment but that is a solvable problem with once again, no real downsides politically for Johnson eve if Scotland do vote to leave eventually. Again, no votes up there that matter. Good post I agree with most of this. If you take the politics out of this doing a deal with the EU it is relatively straight forward as the standards, rules etc. are already in place. It is the politics that is holding this up. As you suggest at some point the EU will want to move on they have bigger concerns, the recovery package is on hold because of Hungry and Poland. They have now lost one of the biggest net financial contributors so it means that other countries will now have to pony up and they are starting to get edgy over this. We know have the frugal five rearing their head. So politically at a certain point it no longer makes sense to be on bad terms with one of your biggest markets. That maybe this week or in several years time but eventually they will realise there is no longer any political capital in punishing us. One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 10 Dec 20 10.17am

Originally posted by Matov

To a certain extent, maybe.

Good post I agree with most of this.

If you take the politics out of this doing a deal with the EU it is relatively straight forward as the standards, rules etc. are already in place.

It is the politics that is holding this up. As you suggest at some point the EU will want to move on they have bigger concerns, the recovery package is on hold because of Hungry and Poland.

They have now lost one of the biggest net financial contributors so it means that other countries will now have to pony up and they are starting to get edgy over this. We know have the frugal five rearing their head.

So politically at a certain point it no longer makes sense to be on bad terms with one of your biggest markets. That maybe this week or in several years time but eventually they will realise there is no longer any political capital in punishing us.

One more point

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nead1 10 Dec 20 10.37am
The word "punish" is in reality just political spin put out by Johnson and his ERG associates. The people who will really loose out are the poorer areas of the country where people are least able to defend themselves from the economic realities of Brexit - just as we have witnessed with Covid. Ironically, of course, many of these same people voted for this largely tied in with concerns around free movement. It will not impact the largely independently wealthy, older male members of the ERG many of whom I suspect will see the opportunity to make money out of this. Wisbech is not a popular poster but much of what he says is entirely correct in my view.
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nead1

10 Dec 20 10.37am

The word "punish" is in reality just political spin put out by Johnson and his ERG associates. The people who will really loose out are the poorer areas of the country where people are least able to defend themselves from the economic realities of Brexit - just as we have witnessed with Covid. Ironically, of course, many of these same people voted for this largely tied in with concerns around free movement.
It will not impact the largely independently wealthy, older male members of the ERG many of whom I suspect will see the opportunity to make money out of this.
Wisbech is not a popular poster but much of what he says is entirely correct in my view.

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Badger11 Beckenham 10 Dec 20 10.53am
Originally posted by nead1 The word "punish" is in reality just political spin put out by Johnson and his ERG associates. The people who will really loose out are the poorer areas of the country where people are least able to defend themselves from the economic realities of Brexit - just as we have witnessed with Covid. Ironically, of course, many of these same people voted for this largely tied in with concerns around free movement. It will not impact the largely independently wealthy, older male members of the ERG many of whom I suspect will see the opportunity to make money out of this. Wisbech is not a popular poster but much of what he says is entirely correct in my view. This comment also applies to the EU a no deal will have an impact on farming, fishing and tourist industries which are largely poor areas. I do think it was punishment and I get why. The EU needed to make sure that no other country started to think of their Brexit well I think you can say mission accomplished. Unlike other Brexiteers I don't think any more countries will follow us or that the EU will collapse. So politically the EU has achieved it's aim in deterring other members from following suit. The question then is how much further do they go? At some point when the French farmers are burning lambs and their fisherman are blockading their ports and the Spanish hotels are complaining you have to wonder if it's worth it. I don't know when that day is but eventually they will realise it's no longer worth it. One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 10 Dec 20 10.53am

Originally posted by nead1

The word "punish" is in reality just political spin put out by Johnson and his ERG associates. The people who will really loose out are the poorer areas of the country where people are least able to defend themselves from the economic realities of Brexit - just as we have witnessed with Covid. Ironically, of course, many of these same people voted for this largely tied in with concerns around free movement.
It will not impact the largely independently wealthy, older male members of the ERG many of whom I suspect will see the opportunity to make money out of this.
Wisbech is not a popular poster but much of what he says is entirely correct in my view.

This comment also applies to the EU a no deal will have an impact on farming, fishing and tourist industries which are largely poor areas.

I do think it was punishment and I get why. The EU needed to make sure that no other country started to think of their Brexit well I think you can say mission accomplished. Unlike other Brexiteers I don't think any more countries will follow us or that the EU will collapse.

So politically the EU has achieved it's aim in deterring other members from following suit. The question then is how much further do they go?

At some point when the French farmers are burning lambs and their fisherman are blockading their ports and the Spanish hotels are complaining you have to wonder if it's worth it.

I don't know when that day is but eventually they will realise it's no longer worth it.

One more point

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chris123 hove actually 10 Dec 20 11.14am
Originally posted by Matov To a certain extent, maybe. But politically, it is the EU that is in much more of a mire than the UK. Johnson has a huge majority, still enjoys reasonably good polling on a variety of fronts despite the s*** show that 2020 has been. The issue for the EU is less about Brexit now but more about the wider cohesion in the East. And whilst Macron might make noises about fishing, it is Poland and Hungary that causing Brussels far more headaches at the moment. The EU know that the UK is gone and not coming back. No British election is going to include even a hint of us rejoining the EU for probably 25 years at a minimum and even then that presupposes the EU still exists in a recognisable form. Politically if there is no chance of a deal then Johnson stands far more to gain by having walked a while ago. Probably back in October. Logistically it would have made sense and given what happened in the 2019 GE, there are zero electoral downsides to no deal. The people making all the noise are not the people who would ever vote Tory in the first place. Hence why I think this is now all about essentially forcing the EU to pass the agreement without to much time for detailed scrutiny. Johnson has all the political cards on his side with only Scotland the possible fly in the ointment but that is a solvable problem with once again, no real downsides politically for Johnson eve if Scotland do vote to leave eventually. Again, no votes up there that matter. Emmanuel Macron has an election in 2022 and really doesn't want to see leaving the Union as a major success.
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chris123

hove actually 10 Dec 20 11.14am

Originally posted by Matov

To a certain extent, maybe.

Emmanuel Macron has an election in 2022 and really doesn't want to see leaving the Union as a major success.

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Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 10 Dec 20 11.18am
Originally posted by becky Yes, because we no longer have to pay the EU XXXX billion a year 'membership' for the privilege of having those deals. What's not to like about that? It will cost us much more to carry out all the additional administration and regulation approval as non-members. Those membership fees pay for a great deal more than just a Parliament and a bureaucracy. For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.
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Wisbech Eagle

Truro Cornwall 10 Dec 20 11.18am

Originally posted by becky

Yes, because we no longer have to pay the EU XXXX billion a year 'membership' for the privilege of having those deals. What's not to like about that?

It will cost us much more to carry out all the additional administration and regulation approval as non-members. Those membership fees pay for a great deal more than just a Parliament and a bureaucracy.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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Matov 10 Dec 20 11.19am
Originally posted by chris123 Emmanuel Macron has an election in 2022 and really doesn't want to see leaving the Union as a major success. Macron is definitely the wild card and, in my opinion, the most dangerous Frenchman since Napoleon. All that weird s* with his 'wife' is proof that this is not your normal hyper-ambitious political type but going more into some serious personality disorder s. Impossible to call anything at the moment. Voices I listen to reckon he is putting on a big show about the fishing but ultimately its not a deal breaker but who genuinely knows at the moment? The UK, and the rest of the EU26, need to be wary of the little b***** though. No playing with a full deck. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

10 Dec 20 11.19am

Originally posted by chris123

Emmanuel Macron has an election in 2022 and really doesn't want to see leaving the Union as a major success.

Macron is definitely the wild card and, in my opinion, the most dangerous Frenchman since Napoleon. All that weird s*** with his 'wife' is proof that this is not your normal hyper-ambitious political type but going more into some serious personality disorder s***.

Impossible to call anything at the moment. Voices I listen to reckon he is putting on a big show about the fishing but ultimately its not a deal breaker but who genuinely knows at the moment?

The UK, and the rest of the EU26, need to be wary of the little b****** though. No playing with a full deck.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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cryrst The garden of England 10 Dec 20 11.20am
Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle It will cost us much more to carry out all the additional administration and regulation approval as non-members. Those membership fees pay for a great deal more than just a Parliament and a bureaucracy. But we only pay that once then it's done.
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cryrst

The garden of England 10 Dec 20 11.20am

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

But we only pay that once then it's done.

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Badger11 Beckenham 10 Dec 20 11.21am
Originally posted by chris123 Emmanuel Macron has an election in 2022 and really doesn't want to see leaving the Union as a major success. Yup this is all about politics. He doesn't want to be seen as having caved in. However If major areas of the French economy are suffering maybe the voters will be asking the question why didn't you do a deal with the UK. Right now French fishermen will have zero access to our waters on Jan 1 this will have a huge impact on their fishing fleet. of course they will publicly blame the British but I expect they will be putting pressure on Macron to sort it out. The good news is that Jan 1 is not a cliff edge. I expect talks will continue in some shape of form and if they can reach an agreement after that it will be a matter of weeks before it is implemented. It is also likely that smaller deals will be done perhaps on visa's and the like. Edited by Badger11 (10 Dec 2020 11.23am) One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 10 Dec 20 11.21am

Originally posted by chris123

Emmanuel Macron has an election in 2022 and really doesn't want to see leaving the Union as a major success.

Yup this is all about politics.

He doesn't want to be seen as having caved in. However If major areas of the French economy are suffering maybe the voters will be asking the question why didn't you do a deal with the UK.

Right now French fishermen will have zero access to our waters on Jan 1 this will have a huge impact on their fishing fleet. of course they will publicly blame the British but I expect they will be putting pressure on Macron to sort it out.

The good news is that Jan 1 is not a cliff edge. I expect talks will continue in some shape of form and if they can reach an agreement after that it will be a matter of weeks before it is implemented.

It is also likely that smaller deals will be done perhaps on visa's and the like.

Edited by Badger11 (10 Dec 2020 11.23am)

One more point

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