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General Election 2017

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View serial thriller's Profile serial thriller Flag The Promised Land 27 Apr 17 11.43am Send a Private Message to serial thriller Add serial thriller as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I feel you speak a lot of truth here.

The two main tribes are ideological in nature and are far more interested in their ideologies and protecting their personal 'sacred cows' rather than looking to improve society.

Part of the success of Blair was the realization that those with money had to be encouraged rather than battered. Of course he went too far with this 'love in' but growth and investment happen for selfish not altruistic reasons.

I like aspects of Corbyn but economically....and ultimately that is the most important aspect... I just see him making the poor worse off.

You gotta dance with the devil to get the music.....You don't have to like it.

Edited by Stirlingsays (27 Apr 2017 11.03am)

I'm not sure. We have a huge problem with productivity in this country (I think it's the lowest in Europe). The Tories in the past few years have tried to stem the stagnation in the economy by increasing employment, particularly in the service sector, and protecting the two most profitable parts of our economy, the city and the housing market.

But these aren't really policies that will rejuvenate an economy which - I believe - only Greece of all developed countries can match for falling wages. Corbyn's promising to raise the minimum wage and invest in public sector wages, with an obvious target of increasing productivity. I don't see how this approach will make the poor worse off, or how it isn't financially necessary.

I know it seems I am a dyed in the wool Corbynista, reading back on this thread, and I have defended him a lot. But I actually do have serious reservations about him. I think ultimately he has no answer to the long term economic problems we face, which are automation and productivity. To my mind, we have to be thinking more radically: embracing automation in sectors like service and care, drastically lowering the working week, and possibly bringing in a UBI.

But I guess the thing I respect is, he is at least offering a solution to the major economic problems we face. The Tories seem more intent in blowing hot air about 'strength and stability', and hoping that everyone buys their bullsh*t that the economy's doing well, which anyone who looks around can clearly see it isn't. I don't really think they have any medium term plan for the economy other than making us a tax haven, which as well as being unbelievably risky, will also be to the detriment of ordinary working people.

 


If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

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View Hrolf The Ganger's Profile Hrolf The Ganger Flag 27 Apr 17 11.55am Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Originally posted by serial thriller

I'm not sure. We have a huge problem with productivity in this country (I think it's the lowest in Europe). The Tories in the past few years have tried to stem the stagnation in the economy by increasing employment, particularly in the service sector, and protecting the two most profitable parts of our economy, the city and the housing market.

But these aren't really policies that will rejuvenate an economy which - I believe - only Greece of all developed countries can match for falling wages. Corbyn's promising to raise the minimum wage and invest in public sector wages, with an obvious target of increasing productivity. I don't see how this approach will make the poor worse off, or how it isn't financially necessary.

I know it seems I am a dyed in the wool Corbynista, reading back on this thread, and I have defended him a lot. But I actually do have serious reservations about him. I think ultimately he has no answer to the long term economic problems we face, which are automation and productivity. To my mind, we have to be thinking more radically: embracing automation in sectors like service and care, drastically lowering the working week, and possibly bringing in a UBI.

But I guess the thing I respect is, he is at least offering a solution to the major economic problems we face. The Tories seem more intent in blowing hot air about 'strength and stability', and hoping that everyone buys their bullsh*t that the economy's doing well, which anyone who looks around can clearly see it isn't. I don't really think they have any medium term plan for the economy other than making us a tax haven, which as well as being unbelievably risky, will also be to the detriment of ordinary working people.

The best way to increase wages is to cut the supply of labour from abroad. Of course increased wages usually mean inflation.
Why do you say that the economy is failing?
Can you demonstrate that the economy has ever done better under Labour and do you not think that external factors are usually more significant than government policy in determining economic growth anyway?

 

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View CambridgeEagle's Profile CambridgeEagle Flag Sydenham 27 Apr 17 12.04pm Send a Private Message to CambridgeEagle Add CambridgeEagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

If you were working age without children and found it hard to get a reasonable job you were buggered under Labour. If you had kids or were a pensioner, not so much.

[Link]

To quote from the conclusion on page 54.

'Income inequality, on most measures, is now
higher than when Labour came to power
and at its highest level since the start of our comparable time series in 1961'.

"Relative poverty has fallen sharply since Labour came to power in 1997"

I don't see anything in there that backs up your assertion that inequality "rose sharply" under Labour.

Indeed as I said previously it rose marginally. I've also said on this thread that in my view was a missed opportunity and they should have done a lot more to combat the sharp rises seen under the previous Tory government.

Also in that report it shows working age non-parents were less likely to be in absolute poverty at the end of Labour's term than working age parents and indeed absolute poverty for this group fell over their period in power. Indeed relative poverty increased for this group, but they were still less likely to be absolutely poor than any other group.

 

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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 27 Apr 17 12.05pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays


I like aspects of Corbyn but economically....and ultimately that is the most important aspect... I just see him making the poor worse off.

You gotta dance with the devil to get the music.....You don't have to like it.

Edited by Stirlingsays (27 Apr 2017 11.03am)

Pretty much my concern is that whilst I agree with most of Corbyn's views and idea, that's not something you can do quickly, much of it needs to be graduated over a long period of time. You can't just 'do this, change that, bish bash bosh' in a capitalist economic model, without f**king the economy.

Same way you can't just 'take 500,000 working migrants' out of the UK economy and not expect it to completely f**king tank.

 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 27 Apr 17 12.12pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by CambridgeEagle

"Relative poverty has fallen sharply since Labour came to power in 1997"

I don't see anything in there that backs up your assertion that inequality "rose sharply" under Labour.

Indeed as I said previously it rose marginally. I've also said on this thread that in my view was a missed opportunity and they should have done a lot more to combat the sharp rises seen under the previous Tory government.

Also in that report it shows working age non-parents were less likely to be in absolute poverty at the end of Labour's term than working age parents and indeed absolute poverty for this group fell over their period in power. Indeed relative poverty increased for this group, but they were still less likely to be absolutely poor than any other group.

The poorest in society grew poorer...working age without children....More than had ever happened since those stats were collected.

You are just trying to fudge the issue by including in more groups, which Labour did help.

If you were working class without kids you weren't helped and to boot you were probably having to compete for your working class jobs with a large influx of foreigners prepared to work for less.

I saw it happening at the time and was teaching the working class kids walking into that environment. They had nothing to thank Labour for.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 27 Apr 17 12.19pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

Pretty much my concern is that whilst I agree with most of Corbyn's views and idea, that's not something you can do quickly, much of it needs to be graduated over a long period of time. You can't just 'do this, change that, bish bash bosh' in a capitalist economic model, without f**king the economy.

Same way you can't just 'take 500,000 working migrants' out of the UK economy and not expect it to completely f**king tank.

Nick produced a list of his policies....some of them are excellent and I hope the Tories 'nick' some of them.

Others, not so much.

Brexit wasn't about economics....it was about other considerations that I know you don't personally feel....and I do expect some sort of price to be paid short term. Longer term I'm more optimistic.

Besides, you actually think that foreigners are going to leave in large numbers? When the EU tanks we will probably have to close the tunnel.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View CambridgeEagle's Profile CambridgeEagle Flag Sydenham 27 Apr 17 12.23pm Send a Private Message to CambridgeEagle Add CambridgeEagle as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

The best way to increase wages is to cut the supply of labour from abroad. Of course increased wages usually mean inflation.
Why do you say that the economy is failing?
Can you demonstrate that the economy has ever done better under Labour and do you not think that external factors are usually more significant than government policy in determining economic growth anyway?

Even in the most basic of economic models this is unlikely to be true given the free movement of capital. Capital will just move to seek the cheapest supply of labour. Add in some real world complexity and this is still true. While there are some jobs which can only be done in the UK there are enough than don't have to be for demand to be a more important factor than supply in your equation. Allowing labour mobility means capital must provide better conditions and pay to attract that labour. If businesses believed foreign labour was going to dry up in the UK there would be significant relocation of capital.

The best way to increase wages is to reverse austerity policies, improve the provision of education and provide investment in the economy.

 

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View CambridgeEagle's Profile CambridgeEagle Flag Sydenham 27 Apr 17 12.28pm Send a Private Message to CambridgeEagle Add CambridgeEagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

The poorest in society grew poorer...working age without children....More than had ever happened since those stats were collected.

You are just trying to fudge the issue by including in more groups, which Labour did help.

If you were working class without kids you weren't helped and to boot you were probably having to compete for your working class jobs with a large influx of foreigners prepared to work for less.

I saw it happening at the time and was teaching the working class kids walking into that environment. They had nothing to thank Labour for.

I'm not fudging any numbers. I've given you them all verbatim, including data on the disposable incomes of the bottom 20%.

Including all other groups provides context, which is necessary to understand how bad or good something is and its significance.

In that report you posted the absolute poverty numbers dropped. In the ONS figures I quotes the bottom 20% became better off in real terms...

Relatively working non-parents became worse off, but were still relatively better off as they were better off to begin with.

 

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View serial thriller's Profile serial thriller Flag The Promised Land 27 Apr 17 12.28pm Send a Private Message to serial thriller Add serial thriller as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

The best way to increase wages is to cut the supply of labour from abroad. Of course increased wages usually mean inflation.
Why do you say that the economy is failing?
Can you demonstrate that the economy has ever done better under Labour and do you not think that external factors are usually more significant than government policy in determining economic growth anyway?

You can't have your cake and eat it mate. You've asked me two questions there which totally contradict each other.

I would argue that the best economic period for us in recent memory - the 50s and 60s - came after a Labour government made radical changes both to the ideology and structure of our economy. If you look at the main economies in the world at the moment, the US under Obama have come closest to something similarly Keynesian, and their growth has totally dwarfed ours. But in general, of course there is little a government can do if, like in 2008, the entire Western financial system collapses.

As for the economy atm...well here's just a few facts.

Since 2008, real term wages have fallen 14% in the UK

The IFS says this is the worst decade post war for falling wages.

The Resolution foundation says that this will be - and has been - completely disproportionate, with the incomes of the wealthiest third rising, but the incomes of the poorest third drastically falling.

This puts us level with Greece of OECD countries since 2008.

And of course we now have Brexit, where our reliance on migrant labour to support our care, construction and service sectors is going to be slashed, where university workers and businesses are leaving, and where quite possibly a lot of our financial services will relocate. The Tories don't have any answer to this. Do they? Maybe I've missed something and am happy to be proved wrong...

My political prediction (although of course such things are unwise nowadays) is that this election is a poisoned chalice. We are about to experience a huge recession, and whoever's in power will be held responsible.

Edited by serial thriller (27 Apr 2017 12.31pm)

 


If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 27 Apr 17 12.30pm

Originally posted by serial thriller

I'm not sure. We have a huge problem with productivity in this country (I think it's the lowest in Europe). The Tories in the past few years have tried to stem the stagnation in the economy by increasing employment, particularly in the service sector, and protecting the two most profitable parts of our economy, the city and the housing market..

Problem with the service sector job increases, its generally low pay, low prospect work. McJobs, supermarket work etc and as such service industry work tends to appeal to casual workers (such as students), single young workers, 'top up workers' and of course migrant workers. They're not 'real jobs'.

Housing Market - Is the curse create by successive governments - Realistically, in order to resolve the housing crisis in the UK, the housing market will need to be burst. Its been artificially inflated now for decades and realistically, no longer really serves it purpose.

Rents and Prices are ridiculously high, and even poor accommodation is a massive burden on peoples incomes - Which has a massive knock on in terms of the value of wages (and of course welfare budgets - where the housing benefit is now one of the most expensive burdens). Who wants to work when 50-75% of your wages is paying for most average to poor accommodation.

Realistically, the UK needed to adapt housing policy as far back as the late 80s, to ensure citizens affordable housing (which in turn makes minimum and low wage jobs more enticing) but to do so now is going to be a brutally bitter pill to swallow.

Housing cannot continue to be 'investments', but every government since the late 80s has failed society on this, instead pointing to the affluence generation and rising market without any attempt to review the issues it causes.

 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

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nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 27 Apr 17 12.32pm

Originally posted by CambridgeEagle

I'm not fudging any numbers. I've given you them all verbatim, including data on the disposable incomes of the bottom 20%.

Including all other groups provides context, which is necessary to understand how bad or good something is and its significance.

In that report you posted the absolute poverty numbers dropped. In the ONS figures I quotes the bottom 20% became better off in real terms...

Relatively working non-parents became worse off, but were still relatively better off as they were better off to begin with.

Does the fact that poverty was redefined by the Tories recently affect the figures?

 

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View serial thriller's Profile serial thriller Flag The Promised Land 27 Apr 17 12.34pm Send a Private Message to serial thriller Add serial thriller as a friend

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

Problem with the service sector job increases, its generally low pay, low prospect work. McJobs, supermarket work etc and as such service industry work tends to appeal to casual workers (such as students), single young workers, 'top up workers' and of course migrant workers. They're not 'real jobs'.

Housing Market - Is the curse create by successive governments - Realistically, in order to resolve the housing crisis in the UK, the housing market will need to be burst. Its been artificially inflated now for decades and realistically, no longer really serves it purpose.

Rents and Prices are ridiculously high, and even poor accommodation is a massive burden on peoples incomes - Which has a massive knock on in terms of the value of wages (and of course welfare budgets - where the housing benefit is now one of the most expensive burdens). Who wants to work when 50-75% of your wages is paying for most average to poor accommodation.

Realistically, the UK needed to adapt housing policy as far back as the late 80s, to ensure citizens affordable housing (which in turn makes minimum and low wage jobs more enticing) but to do so now is going to be a brutally bitter pill to swallow.

Housing cannot continue to be 'investments', but every government since the late 80s has failed society on this, instead pointing to the affluence generation and rising market without any attempt to review the issues it causes.

I completely agree with you mate. That our economy is built upon these things is sick IMO.

 


If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

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