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the coming Saudi-Iran war

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hedgehog50 Flag Croydon 24 Nov 17 2.02pm

Any thoughts on this. I guess oil supplies could be severely disrupted. Is there a good and bad guy in this? Will the West get involved?

 


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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards View Hrolf The Ganger's Profile Hrolf The Ganger Flag 24 Nov 17 2.11pm Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Originally posted by hedgehog50

Any thoughts on this. I guess oil supplies could be severely disrupted. Is there a good and bad guy in this? Will the West get involved?

The s*** will hit the fan if oil supplies are affected and prices start to rise.

Is this the beginning of the end game?

 

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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 24 Nov 17 2.14pm

Originally posted by hedgehog50

Any thoughts on this. I guess oil supplies could be severely disrupted. Is there a good and bad guy in this? Will the West get involved?

I'd imagine the west will side with the Saudi's but not directly intervene.

There is no real positive outcome unless maybe both countries peoples rise up, overthrow their governments and by some miracle implement a moderate Muslim state (fat chance).

That said, I don't think the two will directly come to blows, but will duel it out through proxies.

 


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View Kermit8's Profile Kermit8 Flag Hevon 24 Nov 17 2.25pm Send a Private Message to Kermit8 Add Kermit8 as a friend

Huge opportunity to sell billions worth of arms so I don't see The West not getting involved. By that I mean BAE and the US. Russia will sell to Iran. 300,000 deaths later there will be a truce as arms opportunities wither and the big boys insist on talks.

Free market capitalism. Innit wonderful?

 


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View Stuk's Profile Stuk Flag Top half 24 Nov 17 2.32pm Send a Private Message to Stuk Add Stuk as a friend

They're all mouth and no thawbs.

 


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.TUX. Flag 24 Nov 17 4.43pm

Originally posted by Kermit8

Huge opportunity to sell billions worth of arms so I don't see The West not getting involved. By that I mean BAE and the US. Russia will sell to Iran. 300,000 deaths later there will be a truce as arms opportunities wither and the big boys insist on talks.

Free market capitalism. Innit wonderful?

The Saudis have committed to invest up to $10 billion in various Russian sectors. But, even more significantly, they’ve agreed to buy the S-400 missile system, Russia’s top line air defense system, as part of a $3 billion weapons purchase.

 


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View Ginger Pubic Wig's Profile Ginger Pubic Wig Flag Wickham de L'Ouest 24 Nov 17 4.54pm Send a Private Message to Ginger Pubic Wig Add Ginger Pubic Wig as a friend

There won't be a war any time soon. Saudi Arabia couldn't do a war in its own name (nowhere near good enough ground troops to stand up to Iran), but nobody would attack Saudi at the minute -- at least in a serious way -- while it's effectively under U.S. protection. (Which of course it will remain forever).

At the moment, I'm sure MBS is happy to just fight the proxy war with Iran in Yemen.

The issue is Iran's growing sphere of influence, having taken a huge controlling hand in Iraq already. That's a lot of oil and a lot of people that IRan controls. It's also gained budgetary discipline because of the sanctions Obama imposed, which means it can tolerate lower oil prices than Saudi (although of course both would like higher).

I think what you will see is Saudi Arabia funding counter-Iranian militancy and insurgencies as the most cost-effective way of operating. Will MBS try to build a proper army to take it to Iran? I doubt it. For one thing, Iran would see it coming.

I actually am convinced (sadly) that MBS is going to trip up. He's being SO bullish. That would really really play into Iran's hands. I hope not. Whatever you think of Saudi Arabia, they're `our' guys and a world in which they're overrun by Iran doesn't bear thinking about.

MBS seems to want to bring more moderate ways to Saudi Arabia and also to westernize it. That wouldn't be bad, provided it's a genuine quest and the power doesn't go to his head along the way (which it really may do).

 


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.TUX. Flag 24 Nov 17 5.08pm

Originally posted by Ginger Pubic Wig

There won't be a war any time soon. Saudi Arabia couldn't do a war in its own name (nowhere near good enough ground troops to stand up to Iran), but nobody would attack Saudi at the minute -- at least in a serious way -- while it's effectively under U.S. protection. (Which of course it will remain forever).

At the moment, I'm sure MBS is happy to just fight the proxy war with Iran in Yemen.

The issue is Iran's growing sphere of influence, having taken a huge controlling hand in Iraq already. That's a lot of oil and a lot of people that IRan controls. It's also gained budgetary discipline because of the sanctions Obama imposed, which means it can tolerate lower oil prices than Saudi (although of course both would like higher).

I think what you will see is Saudi Arabia funding counter-Iranian militancy and insurgencies as the most cost-effective way of operating. Will MBS try to build a proper army to take it to Iran? I doubt it. For one thing, Iran would see it coming.

I actually am convinced (sadly) that MBS is going to trip up. He's being SO bullish. That would really really play into Iran's hands. I hope not. Whatever you think of Saudi Arabia, they're `our' guys and a world in which they're overrun by Iran doesn't bear thinking about.

MBS seems to want to bring more moderate ways to Saudi Arabia and also to westernize it. That wouldn't be bad, provided it's a genuine quest and the power doesn't go to his head along the way (which it really may do).

Hold that thought.

''A few years ago, Saudi oil made up over 25% of Chinese oil imports. They were Beijing’s No. 1 supplier. Today, the Saudis’ market share has dropped below 15%.
In other words, the Saudis are losing massive market share and getting pushed out of the biggest oil market in the world. This is mainly because they refuse to sell oil to China in yuan (Chinese currency).
China has made itself clear. It’s willing to expand business with anyone who will accept yuan as payment.
Today, Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s top supplier. Its share of the lucrative Chinese market has grown from 5% to over 15%.
Russia’s enthusiastic acceptance of yuan as payment is the main reason for this shift.
In the meantime, Angola, an African oil producer, has also come on board. The country now accepts yuan as payment for its oil exports to China. It even made the Chinese yuan its second legal currency in 2015.
Chinese imports from Angola have shot up since. It’s now China’s No. 2 supplier, after Russia.
None of this bodes well for the petrodollar system (initiated by the privately owned Federal Reserve and they are really, reeeeally, pissed about this).
The Saudis have two choices… rip up the petrodollar or get shut out of the world’s most lucrative oil market.
One way or another—and probably soon—the Chinese will find a way to compel the Saudis to accept yuan. The sheer size of the Chinese market makes it impossible for Saudi Arabia to ignore China’s demands indefinitely.''
Doug Casey.

 


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View Mr_Gristle's Profile Mr_Gristle Flag In the land of Whelk Eaters 25 Nov 17 11.34pm Send a Private Message to Mr_Gristle Add Mr_Gristle as a friend

The Saudi - Israel love affair will certainly make things politically interesting in the Gulf.

Kuwait already showing signs that they don't fancy normalising relationships with Bibi and his mates.

Oil exporters stand to make an absolute killing if prices get cranked up by further increases in tension....just a thought.

As others have said, unless the Saudis are under pressure themselves to act as US / Israel proxies, there's no way they're going to do anything directly against Iran (and Russia by extension).

 


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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 25 Nov 17 11.38pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by hedgehog50

Any thoughts on this. I guess oil supplies could be severely disrupted. Is there a good and bad guy in this? Will the West get involved?

Can't they just get this over with already.

Saudi are in no way the good guys but compared to Iran, they are better for the west....they are far more practical and not obsessed over Israel.

Especially better for the west if they are serious about tackling the extremism they have been promoting for decades.

 


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View Ginger Pubic Wig's Profile Ginger Pubic Wig Flag Wickham de L'Ouest 26 Nov 17 12.04am Send a Private Message to Ginger Pubic Wig Add Ginger Pubic Wig as a friend

Originally posted by .TUX.

Hold that thought.

''A few years ago, Saudi oil made up over 25% of Chinese oil imports. They were Beijing’s No. 1 supplier. Today, the Saudis’ market share has dropped below 15%.
In other words, the Saudis are losing massive market share and getting pushed out of the biggest oil market in the world. This is mainly because they refuse to sell oil to China in yuan (Chinese currency).
China has made itself clear. It’s willing to expand business with anyone who will accept yuan as payment.
Today, Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s top supplier. Its share of the lucrative Chinese market has grown from 5% to over 15%.
Russia’s enthusiastic acceptance of yuan as payment is the main reason for this shift.
In the meantime, Angola, an African oil producer, has also come on board. The country now accepts yuan as payment for its oil exports to China. It even made the Chinese yuan its second legal currency in 2015.
Chinese imports from Angola have shot up since. It’s now China’s No. 2 supplier, after Russia.
None of this bodes well for the petrodollar system (initiated by the privately owned Federal Reserve and they are really, reeeeally, pissed about this).
The Saudis have two choices… rip up the petrodollar or get shut out of the world’s most lucrative oil market.
One way or another—and probably soon—the Chinese will find a way to compel the Saudis to accept yuan. The sheer size of the Chinese market makes it impossible for Saudi Arabia to ignore China’s demands indefinitely.''
Doug Casey.

no.

 


If you want to live in a world full of kindness, respect and love, try to show these qualities.

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nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 26 Nov 17 12.16am

All the more reason to invest as a country in more renewables and r+d. The sooner we get away from carbon fuels the better, not only from an environmental perspective, but also political.

 

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