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August 22 2019 9.15pm

Fyodor Chalov (Rumour)

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View Monty the Eagle's Profile Monty the Eagle Flag Lima 31 Jul 19 3.47pm Send a Private Message to Monty the Eagle Add Monty the Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by TheBigToePunt

I put this lads name into YouTube earlier and it started showing me some nice enough finishes, though some of the games seemed to be down the park from what I could tell.

By definition a signing like this is a gamble. Sorloth and Jach didn't pay off, and so we are already chasing losses on this particular market (by which I mean the young, foreign, never heard of him market).

Was having a discussion on another thread this week about how the 'hope value' of any young player is such a distorting influence on price. Does this kid cost 15m because he's actually worth 15m as a player right now, or because his value may, one day, end up anywhere between 0m and 40m, and so somehow that equates to 15m today?

If he stayed in Russia and got no better or worse for the next three years would he be worth more, or less than 15m? Probably less, as the hope value would have reduced? If he came to England and did OK (9 or 10 league goals a year for two or three years) would he be worth more or less than 15m? Probably about the same? How well would he have to do to be worth significantly more than the purchase cost? Dunno. It's an imperfect science and no mistake.

We do of course need a forward to chip in, even if he's not 1st choice every week. If it was as simple as that then note Burnley picked up Jay Rodriguez, who has a proven 1 goal every 3 games record in the top two divisions, for 5m now and 5m next year, which sort of puts the whole 'hope value / potential sell on incentive' of this Russian kid into some sort of perspective. Perhaps?

Needless to say, if we get him then I'll spend the next 10 days believing him to be the new Shevchenko until proved otherwise!

Edited by TheBigToePunt (31 Jul 2019 3.04pm)

Agree with this but equally although we have been in the PL for a number of years we are still only of the size whereby we have to take a punt on these kind of hope players as we cannot really afford to continue buying PL proven players or players with no resale.

Once the new stand has been built we maybe slightly better off but I expect that by the time I return from Peru in 2-3 years we will still be talking about stadium plans!

 

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View alexdyoung87's Profile alexdyoung87 Flag Yorkshire 31 Jul 19 4.29pm Send a Private Message to alexdyoung87 Add alexdyoung87 as a friend

What I'd say to this is that we need to remember what size of a club we are and what we can financially afford.

Many clubs over the years have taken a 'gamble' on players and it's proven to pay off. Depends on whether or not your glass if half empty or half full at the moment in relation to this guy.

I suppose some random examples (the first ones coming to my mind) are that Villa took a gamble on Benteke way back when and that worked out well for them. Man Utd took a gamble of Solskjaer as a player and he worked out well for them. Leicester City took a punt on Jamie Vardy although they weren't in the Premier League when they signed him, he was still a lower league striker but paid a lot of money for him.

These things can work out and we need to remember that he's only young and can develop.

There has been no further talk today so it's probably all just a rumour anyway!

 

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View MikeCrete's Profile MikeCrete Flag Cheam/Crete 31 Jul 19 4.40pm Send a Private Message to MikeCrete Add MikeCrete as a friend

Originally posted by alexdyoung87

What I'd say to this is that we need to remember what size of a club we are and what we can financially afford.

Many clubs over the years have taken a 'gamble' on players and it's proven to pay off. Depends on whether or not your glass if half empty or half full at the moment in relation to this guy.

I suppose some random examples (the first ones coming to my mind) are that Villa took a gamble on Benteke way back when and that worked out well for them. Man Utd took a gamble of Solskjaer as a player and he worked out well for them. Leicester City took a punt on Jamie Vardy although they weren't in the Premier League when they signed him, he was still a lower league striker but paid a lot of money for him.

These things can work out and we need to remember that he's only young and can develop.

There has been no further talk today so it's probably all just a rumour anyway!

If my memory serves me right we tried to buy Vardy for 400k but Leicester paid 1m & the rest is history

 

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View steeleye20's Profile steeleye20 Flag Croydon 31 Jul 19 4.52pm Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

Originally posted by MikeCrete

If my memory serves me right we tried to buy Vardy for 400k but Leicester paid 1m & the rest is history

Having a 'punt'?

How about in 1995 Palace paid 800,000 for Dougie Freedman, a lot of money at that time.

Whatever happened to him?


 

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View TheBigToePunt's Profile TheBigToePunt Flag 31 Jul 19 5.33pm Send a Private Message to TheBigToePunt Add TheBigToePunt as a friend

Originally posted by Mwncisee

Agree with most of the above posts, think it is very hard for players to be judged on youtube videos alone, and thats where people in the buisness do have an advantage as knowing people who know the players, their personalities etc counts for a lot. It's that judgement on `how much will this player improve?`. Will he wilt or flourish in a tougher league, in a new country, away from home etc.

Chalov has been at his current club since he was 8 years old. There are pros and cons to that.

The reality is any signing is a risk and whoever pays the bills (also where its easy as fans to say buy x, y and z....it's easier spending other people money than your own) is the one who has to make the call as to if the risk is worth the reward but have to consider it might not be. Yes some deals work out really well. Say Deli Ali to Spurs for just 4 million. He was in plain sight of everyone in English football and he flourished. And flip side remember Fernando Torres. Banged them in for Liverpool big money move to Chelsea, same country, same league...couldn't hit a barn door.

So Chalov could be a diamond ready to step up anf flourish or could flop. Question is, could we stomach him being a 14 mill Sorloth?

Edited by Mwncisee (31 Jul 2019 3.46pm)

For me, the answer is 'No, and we shouldn't be taking punts on the unknown like this'. The risk/reward just isn't good enough on these deals, especially when you stack the misses alongside the hits.

10m on Sorloth, 3m or 4m on Jach, and now perhaps 10-15m on this lad. Even if he comes good we'd have to sell him for 30m just to break even on these recent ventures into the unknown. Looked at that way, Chalov would have to quickly become Zaha / AWB level for us to turn a profit of any note, and that's a lot to ask.

The evidence in our case is that the need to have younger players (whether for the good of the team, the sell on value, or both) is far more likely to be met from the youth team than the obscure market.

A big part of the problem is that once a premier league club show an interest in a young, long-shot potential player in an obscure league, the players value instantly rockets. If a Belgian, Dutch or Portugese side had enquired about Sorloth, there is no way they would have been quoted 10m. It's like when you go on holiday and the shops have one price for the locals and another for the tourists.

Hopefully this Chalov isn't just a case of us being charged tourist rates, and I'll be thrilled if he comes good, but this is not a transfer strategy I am comfortable with.

Edited by TheBigToePunt (31 Jul 2019 5.40pm)

 

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View Spiderman's Profile Spiderman Flag Horsham 31 Jul 19 5.57pm Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Apparently bid rejected they now want 30 million

 

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View Spiderman's Profile Spiderman Flag Horsham 31 Jul 19 5.58pm Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Originally posted by Spiderman

Apparently bid rejected they now want 30 million

Sorry don't know if it is pounds or Euros

 

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View slubglurge's Profile slubglurge Flag welling 31 Jul 19 6.10pm Send a Private Message to slubglurge Add slubglurge as a friend

Next!!

 

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View BelfastEagle's Profile BelfastEagle Flag 31 Jul 19 6.12pm Send a Private Message to BelfastEagle Add BelfastEagle as a friend

Originally posted by Spiderman

Apparently bid rejected they now want 30 million

They want 30m and we offer 13m .........I guess we are turning into Arsenal

 

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View Spiderman's Profile Spiderman Flag Horsham 31 Jul 19 6.53pm Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Originally posted by BelfastEagle

They want 30m and we offer 13m .........I guess we are turning into Arsenal

To be fair I don't know what the original asking price was, I think they may have increased it when our interests was confirmed

 

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View steeleye20's Profile steeleye20 Flag Croydon 31 Jul 19 7.00pm Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

I don't think picking him up at Checkpoint Charlie is quite what SP had in mind........

 

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View chris123's Profile chris123 Online Flag hove actually 31 Jul 19 7.13pm Send a Private Message to chris123 Add chris123 as a friend

Originally posted by steeleye20

I don't think picking him up at Checkpoint Charlie is quite what SP had in mind........

Leamas still waiting.

 

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