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April 5 2020 4.28pm

Pre season in Australia

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View Tickled pink's Profile Tickled pink Flag Cornwall 13 Mar 20 4.29pm Send a Private Message to Tickled pink Add Tickled pink as a friend

Originally posted by Kant

“ 1 in 5 is nonsense”

Correct. It is also wrong to suggest that it will remain a threat until a vaccine is developed. My understanding is that the virus is likely to burn itself out before then as it runs out of fresh hosts. So the critical period will be determined by the effectiveness of the ‘delay stage’ which we are now in. If that delay works as intended then pre-season could well be affected.

I wrote;

People with poor immune systems problems with hearts and lungs are at risk of catching this virus until a vaccine is found, at the moment they believe about one in five will not survive.

I also wrote 'they believe'

This means people at the highest risk, poor immune systems with added heart and lung problems.

It will remain a problem until a vaccine is found, when the temperature drops during November, December, January, February and March the same time as the other flu bugs arrive this COVID-19 virus will be amongst them and it will remain a threat until we can include it into the flu vaccine injection that is available for all the people that are at risk.

It doesn't run out of hosts, anyone can become ill at any time, immune systems can break down at any time, people that smoke can make themselves unable to survive the flu quite easily, there are hundreds of ways that humans can suddenly become a victim of a simple flu bug.
People that are at risk now haven't always been at risk, a simple heart failure where the heart muscle becomes damaged or is discovered to be damaged during sports for example will mean that the next flu bug you catch could be your last.

That's why we make vaccines.

Edited by Tickled pink (13 Mar 2020 4.32pm)

 

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View Kant's Profile Kant Flag exeter 13 Mar 20 6.39pm Send a Private Message to Kant Add Kant as a friend

I suggest you do some further research. Without fresh hosts a virus will burn out. A vaccine for Covid-19 won’t be available for a very long time but it will be produced just in case there is a further outbreak next year or it becomes an endemic infection.

 

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View sprites's Profile sprites Flag Auckland 16 Mar 20 10.46pm Send a Private Message to sprites Add sprites as a friend

I wondered whether Steve's update would cover this. But no luck.

 

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