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September 24 2020 2.43pm

Rather pay 18M for Watkins or 25M for Rafael Leao?

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View mattteo's Profile mattteo Flag 13 Aug 20 9.25pm Send a Private Message to mattteo Add mattteo as a friend

English prices are crazy. Good player Watkins, for sure, but if team takes him,it does so for the center forward position, even though he is more versatile. Maybe 3-4 times during a season he will be used as a winger too, but he has played the entire year as center forward for Brentford.

So I'm comparing him to another center forward. Rafael Leao, very young, a great hope of Europeam football. Sporting Lisbon lost him after that fans riot that hurt some players. He broke his contract and left and might have to pay himself,but that's his own personal problem which he will pay from his salaries. Neither Lille, nor AC Milan or any other club will have to pay money. Nor his future club.

AC Milan is a bit unhappy about their league standing this year and wants a 20 year old to score over 20 goals per season. Rafael Leao didn't get much playing time and I think that's a bit unfair to ask from him. Apparently they would sell for around 25 milion.


As comparison:

Ollie Watkins,24 years old, has in the last 3 seasons 67 goals and assists in 11600 minutes on the pitch. But those minutes were in a second tier,so I will multiply them by 1.5, getting to 17400 minutes. I will however halve the minutes when he was on the wing, right wing or left wing, cause those are positions from where it's harder to score or assist than as center forward. Those were 6500 times 1.5 9800 divided by 2, we remove 4900 minutes from the above for an average of 67 goals and assists in 12300 minutes.

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Rafael Leao, who just turned 21 in June, has 40 goals and assists in the last 3 years, 19 in the French and Italian leagues, where it's pretty much just as hard to acore as in the Premier League, 2 in the Portuguese league in few minutes which don't make a difference how they're counted, 16 in Youth Champions League and Portugal second level, which I will both multiply with 2 at the minutes and 3 at the U21 national team, where I multiply the minutes by 1.5. A total of 40 goals and assists in 6000 minutes, even though he played a bit as winger as well ( like Ollie above).

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Look at the ages. Think of the possible re-sale. I am not saying by no means that I don't like Watkins or that he's a bad player, but there is no way that Rafael Leao won't score or assist 20 more innthe next 6000 minutes to equal what Watkins did by the time he is 24 years old. And the price difference is just 8 million.

Salaries are 1.4 million euros a year for Rafael Leao and 0.7 million euros for Watkins, but in the Premier League they would both pretty much ask for the same as Leao makes at Milan or 2 million at most.

It's just a comparison. Everyone can give thoughts on the matter. Sure, Watkins has an advantage that he is English and qualifies as homegrown, but in a squad like Palace's where this is not a problem, I think that advantage is nullified. Also, maybe you're saying that Watkins is alreaddy accustomed to English fottball,but Rafael Leao is not. Well, true, but Leao has shown that he can play very well in 3 leagues: Portuguese, French and Italian, so he adapts wherever. Football is universal. A player of such quality cannot be a bad investment. No matter how less he delivers, he will still deliver given playing time.

If I were a Palace scout, this is the type of comparison chart I'd make in a meeting with all the board and present 2 possibilities: get Watkins now and similar players and continue to be a Premier League decent team, even with the possibility of a good re-sale for Watkins.

Or get Rafael Leao and players like him and push for becoming a Top 6 team in 5 years, with huge re-sale and/or ppsition prizes posibilities.

 

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View martin2412's Profile martin2412 Flag The Big Wide World 13 Aug 20 10.02pm Send a Private Message to martin2412 Add martin2412 as a friend

Watkins for me all day long. As far as I'm concerned he should be our number one target this window.

He will be a successful premier league player. I hope it's with us.

 

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View Petereagle's Profile Petereagle Flag Brockley 13 Aug 20 10.37pm Send a Private Message to Petereagle Add Petereagle as a friend

Originally posted by martin2412

Watkins for me all day long. As far as I'm concerned he should be our number one target this window.

He will be a successful premier league player. I hope it's with us.

The board seems really focused on getting Watkins in, so other options don't seem relevant unless Watkins goes elsewhere. If he does do a WetSpam and not come to Selhurst, then I think Leao would seem a good option,

 

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View Petereagle's Profile Petereagle Flag Brockley 13 Aug 20 10.47pm Send a Private Message to Petereagle Add Petereagle as a friend

Originally posted by Petereagle

The board seems really focused on getting Watkins in, so other options don't seem relevant unless Watkins goes elsewhere. If he does do a WetSpam and not come to Selhurst, then I think Leao would seem a good option,

I looked him up and he does seem a sensationally good player, but he's now in Milan so why would he consider coming to South London? And Milan have already paid 30m for him, so his value will already have gone up quite a lot I think?

[Link]

 

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View doombear's Profile doombear Flag Sutton Coldfield 13 Aug 20 10.51pm Send a Private Message to doombear Add doombear as a friend

We have to remember we probably don't have much of a transfer kitty, so a difference of 7 million is significant. I would be happy with Watkins, especially given his versatility. The 7 million difference could well go a large way to obtaining us an extra player. I'm not saying I don't want Leao, just that I doubt we have the luxury of the extra funds that would be required to get him.

 

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View mattteo's Profile mattteo Flag 14 Aug 20 10.52am Send a Private Message to mattteo Add mattteo as a friend

Originally posted by Petereagle

I looked him up and he does seem a sensationally good player, but he's now in Milan so why would he consider coming to South London? And Milan have already paid 30m for him, so his value will already have gone up quite a lot I think?

[Link]

Report is a little off. They paid just 23 and that's euros, so about 20 million pounds.

He would want to come because he wants to play as a regular. Agent turned down offers from Real Madrid and Juventus apparently, cause they only offered him a small part to play. Even in Milan he doesn't get playing time anymore with the coming of Zlatan. He can only get it on the wings, where he doesn't really like it.

So he's not yet at the age to be a starter for a Top 6 team in any league, but he is probably one of the best prospects in Europe for the center forward role. Just fit enough to play as a regular in a team like Palace. The price at which they'd be willing to part ways I read is 25 million euros, but it could go to pounds.

Still, it's very close to Watkins'release clause and that's why I say English prices are just too expensive. Watkins is a good player, but for a little more,you could get Rafael Leao, who with 1-2 years of regular playing time is probably going to be sold for 60-100 million, as he will still be u23.

Milan is known for selling cheap. They sold Piatek to Hertha Berlin (kind of a Crystal Palace of Germany) for 24 million after they had bought him for 35 and Piatek had played pretty well. But Piatek wasn't as good as Leao at this young age.

I'm not saying Rafael Leao is very easy to convince (probably takes a 2 millikn annual salary and promises of regular playing), but Watkins isn't much easier to convince either, with all these Premier League clubs after him.

 

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View mattteo's Profile mattteo Flag 14 Aug 20 10.55am Send a Private Message to mattteo Add mattteo as a friend

Originally posted by doombear

We have to remember we probably don't have much of a transfer kitty, so a difference of 7 million is significant.

It is, but considering a re-sale difference from 60-100 million for 20-21 yo Rafa Leao to 40-60 for 24 yo Watkins, it's not a bad investment.

 

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View Nicholas91's Profile Nicholas91 Flag Kent 14 Aug 20 12.47pm Send a Private Message to Nicholas91 Add Nicholas91 as a friend

If it was in the realms of possibility, not saying it isnt, it would be no competition for me and Id have RL all day. The sell on possibility is a fantastic point.

Out of interest Mattteo, Ive been speaking with a mate combining my FIFA knowledge (which can well attribute nothing to the conversation) and his South American footballing expertise (he works in that field) about some up and coming Argentinan wingers, grateful for your thoughts?:

Thiago Almada, Velez sarfield
Pedro De La Vega, Lanus
Augustin Urzi, banfield

Might have the teams wrong but Id be interested in your opinion of them

 


Here's to you the famous red and blue.....

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View mattteo's Profile mattteo Flag 14 Aug 20 1.14pm Send a Private Message to mattteo Add mattteo as a friend

Hi Nicholas. I have very little info on any of the 3 Argentines. They hardly have a few goals and assists in the Argentine league and at U23 level.

If their price was low, maybe, but they are players worth many, many millions, their clubs would want more than 10 million for 1. Their contracts are not set to expire anytime soon.

With so little info on them, I wouldn't reccommend them.

 

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View Nicholas91's Profile Nicholas91 Flag Kent 14 Aug 20 1.22pm Send a Private Message to Nicholas91 Add Nicholas91 as a friend

Originally posted by mattteo

Hi Nicholas. I have very little info on any of the 3 Argentines. They hardly have a few goals and assists in the Argentine league and at U23 level.

If their price was low, maybe, but they are players worth many, many millions, their clubs would want more than 10 million for 1. Their contracts are not set to expire anytime soon.

With so little info on them, I wouldn't reccommend them.

No, fair enough.

I was very much considering them in more sort of footballing ability and the realms of 'will they be the next big thing'. Easy to forget your human sometimes and have not watched every minute of every player worldwide's footballing career!

 


Here's to you the famous red and blue.....

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View mattteo's Profile mattteo Flag 14 Aug 20 1.31pm Send a Private Message to mattteo Add mattteo as a friend

One of the players I did not have info on and came to Europe is Gabriel Martinelli from Arsenal. He had just played in the state level in Brazil, not in the national competition and I didn't know about him. But Arsenal had detailed data and made a decision to pay some handsome money for him (10 million if I remember correctly).

And he turned out really good, he plays very well for his age and they will make a big profit out of him.

It is possible that one makes an opinion by seeing some videos, but I still couldn't reccommend the 3 Argentines, as the prices there are in excess of 10 million and can't just pay that from seeing a few vids.

 

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 14 Aug 20 1.47pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

I wondered if we should have used Speroni as a South America scout. Guess it's a moot point now.

 


I used to put the manager's name in front of Red and Blue but got fed up with changing it. If someone cool becomes our manager then maybe..

Red and Blue Army!

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