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Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 10 Nov 22 10.59pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

In other words, standing still

200,000 conscripts. Some with limited or basic military experience some with none.

I think theyíre done offensively barring some miracle.


ĎThough there are over 900,000 recent veterans who could potentially be recalled to service, Russia can currently summon an active reserve force of just 4,000 to 5,000 troops. Fewer than 10 percent of conscripted soldiers carry out any refresher training in the five years after they end their active service. The Ministry of Defense admitted in 2015 that the whereabouts of ex-soldiers are not effectively tracked, making targeted mobilization impractical.í

I also think itís pretty nailed on that soldiers and conscripts defending their homeland will be more determined than anyone Russia can bundle into a van and throw onto the front line with insignificant training and equipment in the depth of winter.

Edited by SW19 CPFC (10 Nov 2022 10.51pm)

I've been listening to the MoD telling me that Russia are losing this war since it started. Personally, I don't take that much of what they say that seriously anymore. I look at the actual battlefield.

Edited by Stirlingsays (10 Nov 2022 11.00pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 10 Nov 22 11.09pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

It's 300, 000 reservists. 200, 000 of which are going to enter the field this month.....Some of that number probably already have.

I wouldn't know what the truth is as to the extent of experience but I do know that the Russians haven't called up conscripts.

I guess we will see what happens on the actual battlefield. However, like I said, there are Russian offensives going on outside Donetsk and they are said to be retreating from the Kherson area.

Whatever happens I just want this thing to be over, I don't care who wins what.

I think it depends on your interpretation of reservist vs conscript. There seems to be plenty of narrative about both being called up by Russia - so itís not just reservists.

And the quality of those reservists is probably extremely hit and miss

I donít think itís going to over soon. But as stated my stake in the ground is that Russia are offensively done.

 


said the rabid giraffe whilst brandishing his throbbing member of reason, and twas ever thus.

Did you know? 95% of people are morons.

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 10 Nov 22 11.19pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

I think it depends on your interpretation of reservist vs conscript. There seems to be plenty of narrative about both being called up by Russia - so itís not just reservists.

And the quality of those reservists is probably extremely hit and miss

I donít think itís going to over soon. But as stated my stake in the ground is that Russia are offensively done.

I can only state what the reality is, they aren't conscripts.

We know that the Ukraine has been using actual conscripts since the war started. No conscript willingly signs on, regardless of which side they are on.

Ukraine lost a lot of their professional army in the first few months of the war. I know that a lot of Polish and western mercenaries have been in the Ukraine, mainly fighting in the north and were behind the successful Kharkov offensive, apparently, they are more committed and experienced soldiers and behind a lot of the more successful breakthroughs.....I know a lot of Nato are training and working with the Ukraine on the battlefield and tactics....it's pretty much all their equipment.

I guess we will see if Russia are offensively done.

I think a lot will come out on this war afterwards....fingers crossed that we see it.

Edited by Stirlingsays (10 Nov 2022 11.22pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 10 Nov 22 11.40pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I can only state what the reality is, they aren't conscripts.

We know that the Ukraine has been using actual conscripts since the war started. No conscript willingly signs on, regardless of which side they are on.

Ukraine lost a lot of their professional army in the first few months of the war. I know that a lot of Polish and western mercenaries have been in the Ukraine, mainly fighting in the north and were behind the successful Kharkov offensive, apparently, they are more committed and experienced soldiers and behind a lot of the more successful breakthroughs.....I know a lot of Nato are training and working with the Ukraine on the battlefield and tactics....it's pretty much all their equipment.

I guess we will see if Russia are offensively done.

I think a lot will come out on this war afterwards....fingers crossed that we see it.

Edited by Stirlingsays (10 Nov 2022 11.22pm)

Unless Iím misinterpreting something here, this seems to be pretty clear and well researched - contradicting the assertion that there are no Russian conscripts.

[Link]

For example

The Russian Armed Forces conscript men semi-annually, with the fall draft lasting from October 1 until December 31 and the spring draft running from April 1 until July 15.[3] In 2022, the Kremlin announced the spring draft early on February 18.[4] The draft affects all men aged 18 to 27 years old, though some conscripts can be as young as 16 years old.[5] Russian conscripts typically serve one year.[6] The annual conscription pool of all Russian military-aged men is approximately 1.2 million people, though only about half are compelled to present themselves at their local military commissariat (voenkomat). The Russian General Staff reported conscripting 127,000 people for the fall 2021 draft and 134,000 people in spring 2021 out of 672,000 summoned men.[7] The number of conscripts is relatively consistent year on year, with 263,000 in 2020 and 267,000 in 2019.[8] Approximately 261,000 conscripts from 2021 are currently serving across Russian units, with the fall 2021 conscripts entering their third month of training.

New conscripts undergo a one- to two-month basic training, followed by three-to-six months of advanced training before arriving at their assigned units.[9] Current law precludes conscripts from deploying to combat with less than four months of training; however, martial law or general mobilization could supersede the current policy, allowing for the immediate employment of new conscripts or mobilized reservists.[10] Some of the fall 2021 conscripts are likely already serving in units fighting in Ukraine. The rapid employment of relatively untrained reservists is unlikely to materially increase Russiaís combat power in Ukraine.

 


said the rabid giraffe whilst brandishing his throbbing member of reason, and twas ever thus.

Did you know? 95% of people are morons.

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 10 Nov 22 11.57pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

Unless Iím misinterpreting something here, this seems to be pretty clear and well researched - contradicting the assertion that there are no Russian conscripts.

[Link]

For example

The Russian Armed Forces conscript men semi-annually, with the fall draft lasting from October 1 until December 31 and the spring draft running from April 1 until July 15.[3] In 2022, the Kremlin announced the spring draft early on February 18.[4] The draft affects all men aged 18 to 27 years old, though some conscripts can be as young as 16 years old.[5] Russian conscripts typically serve one year.[6] The annual conscription pool of all Russian military-aged men is approximately 1.2 million people, though only about half are compelled to present themselves at their local military commissariat (voenkomat). The Russian General Staff reported conscripting 127,000 people for the fall 2021 draft and 134,000 people in spring 2021 out of 672,000 summoned men.[7] The number of conscripts is relatively consistent year on year, with 263,000 in 2020 and 267,000 in 2019.[8] Approximately 261,000 conscripts from 2021 are currently serving across Russian units, with the fall 2021 conscripts entering their third month of training.

New conscripts undergo a one- to two-month basic training, followed by three-to-six months of advanced training before arriving at their assigned units.[9] Current law precludes conscripts from deploying to combat with less than four months of training; however, martial law or general mobilization could supersede the current policy, allowing for the immediate employment of new conscripts or mobilized reservists.[10] Some of the fall 2021 conscripts are likely already serving in units fighting in Ukraine. The rapid employment of relatively untrained reservists is unlikely to materially increase Russiaís combat power in Ukraine.

Well, this is basically a Washington think tank that you are taking the lead from.

From what I hear Russia called up 300, 000 reservists who all had military experience. If you want to regard that as a conscript army that's cool.

Edited by Stirlingsays (10 Nov 2022 11.58pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 11 Nov 22 5.50pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Well, this is basically a Washington think tank that you are taking the lead from.

From what I hear Russia called up 300, 000 reservists who all had military experience. If you want to regard that as a conscript army that's cool.

Edited by Stirlingsays (10 Nov 2022 11.58pm)

I'd choose to look at both sources and suggest it's probably a mix. We all know what a Russian think tank would suggest... Even if it's not, I highly doubt that they are 300,000 elite military soldiers. If they are/were, this war will be over pretty soon.

Edited by SW19 CPFC (11 Nov 2022 5.50pm)

 


said the rabid giraffe whilst brandishing his throbbing member of reason, and twas ever thus.

Did you know? 95% of people are morons.

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View steeleye20's Profile steeleye20 Flag Croydon 11 Nov 22 6.18pm Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

Now over 100,000 Russian casualties and what for?

Looks like they are hunkering down for the winter retreating from Kherson but only to the east bank of the Dnipro.

 

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 11 Nov 22 6.18pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

I'd choose to look at both sources and suggest it's probably a mix. We all know what a Russian think tank would suggest... Even if it's not, I highly doubt that they are 300,000 elite military soldiers. If they are/were, this war will be over pretty soon.

Edited by SW19 CPFC (11 Nov 2022 5.50pm)

I agree with you, it's not the same as professional soldiery....or indeed, motivated mercs.

I think the mercenaries on both sides have had considerable success and I think that says something, both in terms of resolution and military experience.

I don't like conscription, regardless of who does it.....though obviously we all understand it....it's difficult morally.

Edited by Stirlingsays (11 Nov 2022 6.22pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Ouzo Dan's Profile Ouzo Dan 11 Nov 22 6.23pm Send a Private Message to Ouzo Dan Add Ouzo Dan as a friend

1 Years national service is mandatory for most of the Russian Federation, what were seeing with this mobilisation is the majority of those called up do have previous military experience however 18 - 65 years is quite a generational leap so your getting fitness levels from terrible to athlete, 300,000 (first wave of 3) is a lot of people and there will be those with no military experience called up, saying that it gives Russia options.
To me the equipment these Soldiers are receiving very much depends on how big their commanding officers yachts are.

Russia are reinforcing Crimea right now, they're obviously expecting the Ukrainian military, it's then I am hoping the wind doesnt blow south.

Edited by Ouzo Dan (11 Nov 2022 7.11pm)

 


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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 11 Nov 22 6.28pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by steeleye20

Now over 100,000 Russian casualties and what for?

Looks like they are hunkering down for the winter retreating from Kherson but only to the east bank of the Dnipro.

You know the Russian reasons for the war Steely.

While I'd agree with you that the invasion was wrong I think the earlier discussions in the thread go over all this exhaustively.

None of it matters obviously, it appears that both have decided upon blood until economic exhaustion and it's plebs like us who will suffer for the hubris of leaders.

I remember a quote from the first war which went something along the lines of these conflicts would cost far less blood and money if just the elites themselves got into the trenches and fought it out....instead of using their populations as cannon fodder.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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croydon proud Flag Any european country i fancy! 15 Nov 22 7.09pm

Newsflash. Newsflash, Newsflash!CP news understands from its reporters on the ground that Russia have sent a rocket in to Nato controlled Poland, 2 dead, this could be an error of judgement, a stray rocket so to speak, but could be serious- our eastern european correspondents will keep me, and you, updated! This is the end of this newsflash.

 

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 15 Nov 22 7.15pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by croydon proud

Newsflash. Newsflash, Newsflash!CP news understands from its reporters on the ground that Russia have sent a rocket in to Nato controlled Poland, 2 dead, this could be an error of judgement, a stray rocket so to speak, but could be serious- our eastern european correspondents will keep me, and you, updated! This is the end of this newsflash.

Itís just over the border in or by a farm. But yes, there will be a statement at least. How serious will the response be? Who knows? Not much as itís just over the border. Was that an accident? More I think the more I think it couldíve been decided to do it.

 


COYP

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