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Next manager

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TheBigToePunt Flag 24 Jan 24 2.10pm Send a Private Message to TheBigToePunt Add TheBigToePunt as a friend

Originally posted by Nicholas91

It would have been thematic with other exchanges on here plus I really hate the usage of extremes, especially when subtlety has been deliberately used, so I am often aggressively dismissive of them.

I recognise the gamble of discarding/replacing Roy. Equally, I recognise and would also be inclined to believe that the limited resource he has to work with is the primary issue too. I am also happy to concede that changing manager could be as disastrous as it could be revolutionary for us.

At this stage however I would be willing to take the gamble. That's just my stance, I'm not saying it is correct nor that others should be aligned with me on it.

My ideal situation is 4/5 points from the next three, perhaps a signing or two, and a smoother and more optimistic road ahead, with Roy. I'm not hugely confident of this however and am braced for us further sliding downhill.

I am more confident of Roy being shifted than I am of all our players returning and staying fit and/or us signing a winger, central midfielder and full back(s) to strengthen our depleted first team.

Fair enough, thanks.

All I am trying to do is understand why a person might advocate what, as you say, is a big risky gamble.

If a fan thinks the players are individually better than they are showing, and/or capable of sustaining different and better football then I could understand why changing the manager becomes a gamble worth taking. I would disagree with them on all three points, but I could understand it.

You seem not to be saying any of that, though. Hence me respectfully asking the question.

 

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French eagle Flag 24 Jan 24 2.13pm Send a Private Message to French eagle Add French eagle as a friend

The top and bottom of it has Roy lost the dressing room ? If yes it's over if not then buckle down and play for the shirt !

 

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Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 24 Jan 24 2.21pm Send a Private Message to Willo Add Willo as a friend

Originally posted by TheBigToePunt

Precisely.

Of course, what we don't know is what (if anything) is happening behind the scenes. Parish famously sacked De Boer in record time, and didn't give very long at all to Warnock, either, but yet he doesn't have a 'trigger-happy' reputation particularly.

I think that is because, in the case of FDB it soon became apparent that the manager's methods were all awfully wrong, and that in the case of Warnock, he just wasn't up to the job at that level (something his career has proved).

I think that is part and parcel of SP being in the building - the decisions to sack the manager are not taken on the basis of runs of results and form alone, as they would be with an absentee owner. I imagine Parish speaks with people, gets the vibe, and to some extent listens to his key staff (the players).

We don't know if Vieria got the boot partly because of Parish's sense of relationships behind the scenes (it is rumoured, though who knows?). One thing for sure, twice Parish has turned to Roy to take over and steady the ship, on about four occasions he has given him a new contract when perhaps it was not obvious that he would, so he must trust the way he runs things.

Thats not certain to protect Roy from the chop of course, but it might be a key difference between Roy and those who got the chop.

Warnock was appointed 2 games into the season with the team 19th on 0 pts.
He lasted 16 PL games and when he departed the team were 18th on 15 pts.
After 2 games under Interim Manager Keith Millen, Pardew was appointed with the team 18th on 17 pts.
We ended the season in 10th place.

 

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TheBigToePunt Flag 24 Jan 24 2.32pm Send a Private Message to TheBigToePunt Add TheBigToePunt as a friend

Originally posted by Canterbury Palace


Again I sort of agree in parts.

There was a definite huge shift in our play when Roy came in last season and, regardless of whether his tactics were fundamentally different, it was by a distance the best we've played under him.

You could attribute it to things getting very bad under Vieira and a new manager bounce but we're not playing the same now as we did then.

The situation feels similar, things have gone stale and I'm not sure he knows how to change it. His overall demeanour in post-defeat interviews suggests that he's not enjoying it and maybe, at his age, it's becoming a hassle he could do without.

You're right about the old guard all playing in that way but I think the Premier League has moved past them now. Roy and Sam have taken teams down in recent seasons and obviously we are in danger this time.

Teams like Brighton and Brentford have come up and been successful playing progressive football. Both have finished higher than us despite us being in the league a longer and having more resources.

The issue with Roy now is that he is probably the most experienced active manager in world football, so it's difficult to credibly criticise his methods which are born out of decades of knowhow.

However, that also creates a stubborness and inflexibility within him that means he refuses to give fringe players a fair chance or adjust his tactics, despite players like AWB and Mitchell who he was forced to play through injury in the past, eventually going on to become first teamers.

I don't know what the answer is and perhaps you're right and a new manager will make it worse but at the moment it feels as though there's more of a potential upside than a downside.

Edited by Canterbury Palace (24 Jan 2024 2.08pm)

No doubt about it - Roy does exactly what he says on the tin!

Regards your final paragraph, I think this is where I am a little at odds with one or two in this conversation.

For me, recognising that one is bored, dissatisfied, frustrated, or fearful of what might next occur in any particular situation is only the first part of the process. The second part is having some sort of idea (even only in very vague terms) of a better alternative, and establishing that it seems at least feasible. I feel like, generally speaking, far too many people speak very clearly and convincingly on the first element, but seem not even to have given thought to the second (not true in every case, of course).

Changing a manager isn't just a gamble - it's a strategic decision. The normal way to plot a course through the decision is to think about where one wants to end up, whether it would be better, and if it could be possible.

All of which leads me back to my original point - I just don't see that we have the players to play noticeably better football very often. I think that when we occasionally do play nice stuff it is form, not method, and there is a good reason why nobody has managed, in a decade, to do anything much better than we have seen this season.

I get the urge to change (Christ knows I've had enough of the Premier League version of football generally myself, and find this ten year stay at the top has actually done more to kill my love of supporting Palace than anything) but that's me just seeing the problem, and not considering a viable solution.

 

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TheBigToePunt Flag 24 Jan 24 2.35pm Send a Private Message to TheBigToePunt Add TheBigToePunt as a friend

Originally posted by Willo

Warnock was appointed 2 games into the season with the team 19th on 0 pts.
He lasted 16 PL games and when he departed the team were 18th on 15 pts.
After 2 games under Interim Manager Keith Millen, Pardew was appointed with the team 18th on 17 pts.
We ended the season in 10th place.

Yep, so a bad manager can certainly hold good players back.

I see no evidence that is what we have at the moment, though.

 

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Nicholas91 Flag The Democratic Republic of Kent 24 Jan 24 2.41pm Send a Private Message to Nicholas91 Add Nicholas91 as a friend

Originally posted by TheBigToePunt

Fair enough, thanks.

All I am trying to do is understand why a person might advocate what, as you say, is a big risky gamble.

If a fan thinks the players are individually better than they are showing, and/or capable of sustaining different and better football then I could understand why changing the manager becomes a gamble worth taking. I would disagree with them on all three points, but I could understand it.

You seem not to be saying any of that, though. Hence me respectfully asking the question.

I would suggest that the current situation being highly unsatisfactory for many alongside an inability to see any improvement would drive the want for change which again would point most toward the most likely/achievable solution.

Again, I am not suggesting this is correct and may well just be a simplistic and highly flawed conclusion but I have been drawn into taking this position, in lieu of an alternative one I have more faith in bringing the aforementioned change. It is the short-termism of football at it's best of course but nonetheless not something I am immune to.

With equal emphasis, I completely understand the position you seem to be taking and am not arguing against it nor dismissing it, seeing the logic in the argument for keeping Roy.

 


Now Zaha's got a bit of green grass ahead of him here... and finds Ambrose... not a bad effort!!!!

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NEILLO Flag Shoreham-by-Sea 24 Jan 24 2.49pm Send a Private Message to NEILLO Add NEILLO as a friend

Originally posted by TheBigToePunt

No doubt about it - Roy does exactly what he says on the tin!

Regards your final paragraph, I think this is where I am a little at odds with one or two in this conversation.

For me, recognising that one is bored, dissatisfied, frustrated, or fearful of what might next occur in any particular situation is only the first part of the process. The second part is having some sort of idea (even only in very vague terms) of a better alternative, and establishing that it seems at least feasible. I feel like, generally speaking, far too many people speak very clearly and convincingly on the first element, but seem not even to have given thought to the second (not true in every case, of course).

Changing a manager isn't just a gamble - it's a strategic decision. The normal way to plot a course through the decision is to think about where one wants to end up, whether it would be better, and if it could be possible.

All of which leads me back to my original point - I just don't see that we have the players to play noticeably better football very often. I think that when we occasionally do play nice stuff it is form, not method, and there is a good reason why nobody has managed, in a decade, to do anything much better than we have seen this season.

I get the urge to change (Christ knows I've had enough of the Premier League version of football generally myself, and find this ten year stay at the top has actually done more to kill my love of supporting Palace than anything) but that's me just seeing the problem, and not considering a viable solution.

Having read the various exchanges on here, I largely agree with the points you have been making.

The bit that I have highlighted made me think that actually to sack Hodgson now and bring a new manager in is far more gamble than strategy.

We don't know of course, but it's entirely possible that any new man coming in now would do so based more on their ready availability rather than being a longer term strategic fit. After all, Roy was only here until the summer and then you would like to think that Parish would be starting to consider candidates with a view to appointing prior to next pre season.

Looking at the clubs relegated over the last season or so, history suggests that changing manager and avoiding relegation is an exception rather than the rule.

But getting back to Palace, if Hodgson oversees a win over Sheffield United then according to reports, his job will be safe. Next up after that are arch rivals Brighton and bogey team Chelsea. What's the expectation from those games ?

 


Old, Ungifted and White

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PatrickA Flag London 24 Jan 24 2.56pm Send a Private Message to PatrickA Add PatrickA as a friend

If we take 3 points from the next 3 games against Sheffield Utd, Brighton and Chelsea that would put us on 24 points from 24 games.
A point a game average is usually enough to stay up and 38 points is likely to be enough this season as the current bottom 3 are unlikely to hit this number.
Looking at this I think that it’s likely Roy will stay until the end of the season unless we cave in against Sheffield United.
Personally I wouldn’t be averse to a change of manager to give the newcomer a chance to bed in and have the whole summer to work on what’s needed for next season.
We surely don’t want a to let the situation to drift and appoint a new manager after pre season training starts (we have history here).
However, I acknowledge that this pre-supposes that there is a preferred candidate ready and willing to take the job now.

 

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Midlands Eagle Flag 24 Jan 24 2.59pm Send a Private Message to Midlands Eagle Add Midlands Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by TheBigToePunt

I think that is part and parcel of SP being in the building - the decisions to sack the manager are not taken on the basis of runs of results and form alone, as they would be with an absentee owner. I imagine Parish speaks with people, gets the vibe, and to some extent listens to his key staff (the players).

Like him or not I believe that Simon Jordan was correct when he said that chairmen should not speak to players

 

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TheBigToePunt Flag 24 Jan 24 3.02pm Send a Private Message to TheBigToePunt Add TheBigToePunt as a friend

Originally posted by NEILLO

Having read the various exchanges on here, I largely agree with the points you have been making.

The bit that I have highlighted made me think that actually to sack Hodgson now and bring a new manager in is far more gamble than strategy.

We don't know of course, but it's entirely possible that any new man coming in now would do so based more on their ready availability rather than being a longer term strategic fit. After all, Roy was only here until the summer and then you would like to think that Parish would be starting to consider candidates with a view to appointing prior to next pre season.

Looking at the clubs relegated over the last season or so, history suggests that changing manager and avoiding relegation is an exception rather than the rule.

But getting back to Palace, if Hodgson oversees a win over Sheffield United then according to reports, his job will be safe. Next up after that are arch rivals Brighton and bogey team Chelsea. What's the expectation from those games ?

Well, it's the 24th Jan now and that is, I think, significant. I think there is a big difference between appointing a new manager before the Jan window and after. In the latter case, you really are just rolling the dice - partly because you can't help the manager by changing the squad, and partly because, as you say, you are only getting what happens to be available and willing, which is rarely the guy you want.

I expect Palace to go into all three games prepared to have less of the ball than they might like (even against Sheff Utd, who are in a genuine must-win position and may take the initiative and more risks therefore, which we can capitalise on). I'd take 4 points from the three games.

 

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TheBigToePunt Flag 24 Jan 24 3.05pm Send a Private Message to TheBigToePunt Add TheBigToePunt as a friend

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

Like him or not I believe that Simon Jordan was correct when he said that chairmen should not speak to players

100% agree, and I'm sure Parish generally doesn't. At the same time, he'd have to go to unusual lengths to have no idea how any of them felt about things.

 

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Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 24 Jan 24 3.12pm Send a Private Message to Willo Add Willo as a friend

Originally posted by TheBigToePunt

100% agree, and I'm sure Parish generally doesn't. At the same time, he'd have to go to unusual lengths to have no idea how any of them felt about things.

He might get the smallest disclosures akin to Parisian belles displaying glimpses of their inner thighs.

Edited by Willo (24 Jan 2024 3.16pm)

 

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