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March 3 2024 5.28am

Reasons We Won't Go Down

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View ex hibitionist's Profile ex hibitionist Flag Hastings 07 Feb 24 12.05pm Send a Private Message to ex hibitionist Add ex hibitionist as a friend

Originally posted by stancummins

i actually got 8/1 with skybet and you have forgotten forest who are 13/8


I had a look expecting 3-1 to be the best price - 8-1 is such outstanding value that all notions of loyalty are annihilated. I think we're even money - Luton, Brentford, Forest, Everton ain't going down.

 

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View Canterbury Palace's Profile Canterbury Palace Flag Whitstable 07 Feb 24 12.20pm Send a Private Message to Canterbury Palace Add Canterbury Palace as a friend

As an extension my original post, not really a reason that we'll stay up but maybe something positive that could come of this.

In previous seasons we've seen young players flourish when given a chance because Roy has had no other option, such as AWB and Mitchell.

I still believe that Franca, Ahamada and Ozoh, in particular, have something to offer. I realise Roy would rather crawl through fire than play them ordinarily but we're getting to a point where Schlupp can only play so many positions at once.

If he goes against everything we know about him and says "f*** it" and throws them into the starting line up, maybe at least one of them will step up and prove his worth. At the very least, they'll by motivated to prove a point.

I am clutching at straws at this point, admittedly.

 


We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold...

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View Elphers40's Profile Elphers40 Flag Northants 07 Feb 24 12.44pm Send a Private Message to Elphers40 Add Elphers40 as a friend

Canterbury Palace.

I am greatly appreciative of your efforts to highlight the “silver linings” that are available if we look hard enough for them.

All the points you raise make it all the more sensible to get the new man in now (rather than wait till the end w the season).

Let’s hope SP decides to grow a pair.

 

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View doombear's Profile doombear Flag Too far from Selhurst Park 07 Feb 24 3.30pm Send a Private Message to doombear Add doombear as a friend

Originally posted by eaglesdare

4 wins and a few s***housed draws will do. if we cant manage that we deserve to go down.


We have 15 games left to play. We've only managed 3 wins and 3 draws in our last 15 and we had Eze and Olise for the last 2 wins. in other words we had one win in that run without the two of them being on the pitch and that one win (Burnley) saw Eze come on for the last 30 minutes to provide the assist for Mitchell's last minute goal.

If we look at the 15 games to come and the results in the reverse fixtures earlier this season, we had

- 2 wins v Wolves (h) and Man U (away)
- 4 draws v Fulham (h), Forest (h), West Ham (away) and Man C (away)
- 9 (yes NINE) defeats.

I'm sorry but, with our best 4 players out for the next month at least and two of them likely not to feature again this season, I'm not at all sure from where you, and those who say we'll survive with Hodgson still in charge, think we're going to get the necessary points.

Edited by doombear (07 Feb 2024 3.31pm)

 

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View eagleman13's Profile eagleman13 Flag On The Road To Hell & Alicante 07 Feb 24 3.54pm Send a Private Message to eagleman13 Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add eagleman13 as a friend

Originally posted by pizzapat

this is what we said when Oldham had to play 3 games in a week to stay up

All we had to do, was get 1 point, failed by 1 goal I believe. Palace eh?

 


I'm a blind man, i'm a blind man, now my room is cold,
When a blind man cries, Lord, he feels it from his soul.
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View rikz's Profile rikz Flag Croydon 07 Feb 24 4.42pm Send a Private Message to rikz Add rikz as a friend

Eze and olise, oh no they're both injured again

 

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View ex hibitionist's Profile ex hibitionist Flag Hastings 08 Feb 24 12.22pm Send a Private Message to ex hibitionist Add ex hibitionist as a friend

the only reason we are 8-1 to go down and not evens must be that both Forest and Everton are expected to have more points deducted.

 

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View Canterbury Palace's Profile Canterbury Palace Flag Whitstable 08 Feb 24 1.05pm Send a Private Message to Canterbury Palace Add Canterbury Palace as a friend

Originally posted by ex hibitionist

the only reason we are 8-1 to go down and not evens must be that both Forest and Everton are expected to have more points deducted.


I used to be an odds compiler for a few of the big bookies and, although things might seem absolutely hopeless right now, we really are nowhere nearly as likely to go down as people think, as the odds reflect.

First of all we're only 8/1 at one bookmaker and are as short as 5/1 elsewhere. That means that the bookies rate us between 11% and 16% to go down as a range.

As fans, our tendency is to automatically see the worst case scenario. We've won twice in 12 games, have key injuries etc.

From a neutral perspective, though, you could say that after 11 games we were 9 points clear of relegation and, despite our terrible form, we're still five points clear 12 grim games later.

That doesn't suggest that the clubs below us are tearing up trees so much that a few wins wouldn't put us safe.

Additionally you could argue that those two wins have actually come in our last four games. Obviously getting battered by Arsenal and Brighton either side of them is what sticks out but, based on that four game run, winning alternate games is more than enough to stay up. In fact we've only lost 3 of our last 7 overall.

They'll also acknowledge that, despite our key injuries at the moment, we still have several players in our first team that would walk into sides below us.

Finally, as I mentioned in my opening post, they'll factor in that we have some winnable games approaching before a horrible end to the season. If we don't get points from them, then expect those odds to tumble quickly.

So basically, the odds are probably about right however bad things might seem. It's odds on next manager markets that you want to ignore as they are genuinely absolute guesswork, regardless of how many people think they have inside knowledge. They truly don't.

Edited by Canterbury Palace (08 Feb 2024 1.06pm)

 


We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold...

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View eaglesdare's Profile eaglesdare Flag 08 Feb 24 1.12pm Send a Private Message to eaglesdare Add eaglesdare as a friend

I am sure we will be fine. we have to get out act together sooner or later.

 

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View Houston Eagle's Profile Houston Eagle Flag Houston 08 Feb 24 1.58pm Send a Private Message to Houston Eagle Add Houston Eagle as a friend

Since gaining promotion we have been in similar situations and survived although this year has a more sinister feel.

The task on paper seems easy to just win 4 more games(we have actually won 2 out of last 4) but our eyes and brains tell us something different based on player, management and board commitment!

I think we will survive and Parish can push the reset button albeit 1 year too late!

 

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View Nubes's Profile Nubes Flag London 08 Feb 24 3.21pm Send a Private Message to Nubes Add Nubes as a friend

Modern football - modern fans mentality! (Pessimism and revelling in criticism)

When we came up - we were battling for every point and lacked real quality. Luton are in the mould we were in - in those early seasons.

I think if we lose to Chelsea, then and thereafter the ‘real’ Crystal Palace supporters and fan base will have to step forward and help the players, team and management to move forward with getting results through hard work, grit and determination.

I didn’t ever think we would go down - with Ollie’s start, FDB, start and last season with Viera’s no shots in 3 games scenario etc.

I don’t think we will go down this season. If and when things get a little more desperate regarding the table - I believe we will do what we always do and put in the necessary performances to get enough points, even with the injuries to key players.

As a fan base we are used to adversity, Stockport, Sheffield Wednesday etc, we will naturally click into supporting the team to get them over the line.

I have no doubt about that!

 

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View DANGERCLOSE's Profile DANGERCLOSE Flag london 14 Feb 24 9.54am Send a Private Message to DANGERCLOSE Add DANGERCLOSE as a friend

Originally posted by Canterbury Palace

We're a shambles and it's about as depressing as I can remember at the moment. So I decided to try and be positive and look for reasons that we'll be safe. Here's what I came up with.

1) 5 points clear. The obvious one but despite our wretched form, many of the teams below us are in a bad way too. Realistically another 10/12 points from our final 15 games will probably be enough and, as bad as we are, we're averaging more than that per game.

2) 6 teams competing for one spot. Sheff Utd are basically down, aren't they? And the same can be said for Burnley who are seven points from safety. Realistically it is probably between Fulham, us, Brentford, Forest, Luton and Everton for that last spot. We only need to finish above one of them.

3) Points deductions. The possibility of points deductions to Everton and or Forest could be enough to finish one of them off at a key point to the season.

4) Upcoming fixtures. Here are the next fixtures for the clubs in the mire.

Palace: Chelsea, Everton, Burnley, Spurs, Luton, Newcastle
Fulham: Bournemouth, Villa, United, Brighton, Wolves, Tottenham
Brentford: Wolves, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham, Chelsea, Arsenal
Forest: Newcastle, West Ham, Villa, Liverpool, Brighton, Luton
Luton: Sheff Utd, Man Utd, Liverpool, Villa, Palace, Forest
Everton: City, Palace, Brighton, West Ham, United, Liverpool

I reckon we definitely have the kindest run out of that lot and it's tough to see where the likes of Brentford, Forest and Everton are getting many points from.

5) Injuries to key players. These should dry up now as all of our key players are already injured.

I'm not sure I've convinced myself but given that most of our 'famous' wins tend to come when things are looking bleak, I'm hoping that we're somehow going to beat Everton and Burnley and then suddenly things would look a lot rosier.

Edited by Canterbury Palace (06 Feb 2024 9.16am)


3) Points deductions. The possibility of points deductions to Everton and or Forest could be enough to finish one of them off at a key point to the season.

I hope so

 

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