The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)
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 Stuk  Top half 14 Dec 18 11.58pm |
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Looking at the total imports for 2017, New Zealand shipped 22% less sheep meat, which totalled 52,000 tonnes
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| Stuk Top half 15 Dec 18 12.11am |
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Declining EU sales of sheep meat are a particular concern for UK producers, with around 30% of UK sheep meat production exported to EU. In addition, production in the UK and across the EU may rise this year, which could compound these difficulties. However, international trade could help balance the market. EU and UK exports have been growing to Asia, and lower import levels might be anticipated. New Zealand has fewer lambs available to slaughter for the rest of this season, and the US and China may prove more attractive export markets, especially as their demand is reportedly strong
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| Mapletree Croydon 15 Dec 18 12.18am |
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Originally posted by Stuk
You're already down to less than 70% there using your own, old and incorrect, figures. Everything will readjust regardless of however we leave. Who's talking instantly either? My data is at least 8 months more current than yours. I suggest you buy a new calculator. I make it just over 70 percent As a fellow pedant, you are correct I was 5% out. It doesn’t change the fact almost all of our sheep exports are to the EU, would cease in April and there will be a mass exit from sheep farming in advance of that. If new markets can be found ‘sometime in the future’ the supply won’t be in place. There is no slack to sustain weeks let alone years of negative profit.
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| Mapletree Croydon 15 Dec 18 12.28am |
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We exported 65,442 tonnes of sheep year to date as of October Of that 62,235 went to the EU That is the scale of the issue. Try finding a way to replace that market overnight Linking this to my earlier thread. Sheep in its own right is a bigger market than fishing Pork is bigger than sheep Beef is four times the size of sheep Edited by Mapletree (15 Dec 2018 12.50am)
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Jimenez  SELHURSTPARKCHESTER,DA BRONX 15 Dec 18 12.52am |
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Pro USA & Israel |
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| Stuk Top half 15 Dec 18 1.17am |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
My data is at least 8 months more current than yours. I suggest you buy a new calculator. I make it just over 70 percent As a fellow pedant, you are correct I was 5% out. It doesn’t change the fact almost all of our sheep exports are to the EU, would cease in April and there will be a mass exit from sheep farming in advance of that. If new markets can be found ‘sometime in the future’ the supply won’t be in place. There is no slack to sustain weeks let alone years of negative profit. I rounded up to the nearest thousand, but half a percent out is still ten times closer than your 5% out. 30% exports is nowhere near "almost all". No one is assuming things reset overnight, or even in weeks or months, unless they're stupid or implicitly trying to make an invalid point. This is a long term issue not a quick fix.
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| braunstoneagle the middle of bumf*** nowhere... 15 Dec 18 8.38am |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
We exported 65,442 tonnes of sheep year to date as of October Of that 62,235 went to the EU That is the scale of the issue. Try finding a way to replace that market overnight Linking this to my earlier thread. Sheep in its own right is a bigger market than fishing Pork is bigger than sheep Beef is four times the size of sheep Edited by Mapletree (15 Dec 2018 12.50am) at least there wouldnt be a meat shortage after brexit...every cloud.
‘Football isn’t instant coffee. You have to work at it. You must grow the bean, grind it.’ Ian Holloway |
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cryrst  The garden of England 15 Dec 18 8.44am |
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Lots of towns and cities used to get money from the EU development fund back from brussles.
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| Mapletree Croydon 15 Dec 18 9.54am |
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Originally posted by cryrst
Lots of towns and cities used to get money from the EU development fund back from brussles. No A no deal Brexit results in an immediate 75% drop in financial support A deal Brexit results in support being reduced to zero over 7 years Currently three quarters of sheep farmers would go out of business without state support
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| steve1984 15 Dec 18 9.55am | |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
If new markets can be found ‘sometime in the future’ the supply won’t be in place. There is no slack to sustain weeks let alone years of negative profit. Best we begin a marketing campaign for mutton then. But of course I'm joking, the best mutton breeds are different to lamb.
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| steve1984 15 Dec 18 9.58am | |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
We exported 65,442 tonnes of sheep year to date as of October Of that 62,235 went to the EU That is the scale of the issue. Try finding a way to replace that market overnight Linking this to my earlier thread. Sheep in its own right is a bigger market than fishing Pork is bigger than sheep Beef is four times the size of sheep Edited by Mapletree (15 Dec 2018 12.50am) I agree. So much hot air spouted about growth markets and practically nothing about volume markets. I guess it's because very few people have ever worked in business and have experience of protecting one whilst pursuing the other.
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| Mapletree Croydon 15 Dec 18 10.00am |
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Originally posted by Stuk
I rounded up to the nearest thousand, but half a percent out is still ten times closer than your 5% out. 30% exports is nowhere near "almost all". No one is assuming things reset overnight, or even in weeks or months, unless they're stupid or implicitly trying to make an invalid point. This is a long term issue not a quick fix. Let’s try again Almost all of our EXPORTS are to the EU Much of what we export would never be saleable in the UK as it is not to our tastes Without exporting those elements of the sheep, each individual sheep would no longer be financially viable.
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