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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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Spiderman Flag Horsham 25 Aug 19 8.47pm

Originally posted by Badger11

Tony Smith I don't know if you know him. He was on for an hour and answered questions from the public seems to know what he is talking about but it's a panel so not just him.

[Link]

I'm assuming this is the panel

[Link]

Yes know him very well...Great bloke (season ticket holder at QPR) Knows what he is talking about and is definately not a government lackie. Ran the Border Force side of things for the London Olympics

 
Invalid user 2019 Flag 26 Aug 19 5.08am

Conservatives surge to 12-point poll lead over Labour ahead of Brexit deadline - [Link] Chooo chooo

 
Invalid user 2019 Flag 26 Aug 19 5.13am

JohnRentoul: Average of the 7 most recent polls from different companies:

Con 33%
Lab 25%
Lib Dem 18%
Brexit 12%
Green 5%

A bit of a mixed bag with all recent polls. A clear trend of the tories hoovering up the Brexit Party vote though.

poll.jpg Attachment: poll.jpg (76.76Kb)

 
palace_in_frogland Flag In a broken dream 26 Aug 19 7.59am

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Yeah Steely, just like you cared what Catatonian people thought.

Who’s their leader, Cerys Matthews?

 
steeleye20 Flag Croydon 26 Aug 19 9.29am

Unless Stokes innings has affected my brain, the 39 billion divorce settlement which Johnston says we do not have to pay in the event of no-deal, is in fact already being paid.

I read some time ago it had been signed off and due to the first date of 31st March, had already started.

 
Badger11 Flag Beckenham 26 Aug 19 9.38am

Originally posted by steeleye20

Unless Stokes innings has affected my brain, the 39 billion divorce settlement which Johnston says we do not have to pay in the event of no-deal, is in fact already being paid.

I read some time ago it had been signed off and due to the first date of 31st March, had already started.

In full? Or is it monthly instalments. I think I read that once TM agreed an extension it meant that the cost also went up on a monthly basis which seems fair enough. If you rent you house and decide to stay longer..

I assume that Johnson is referring to the cost over the two year post Brexit implementation phase and he is saying that we will pay up to end of October and no more if there is no deal hence the 9bn?

 

One more point
steeleye20 Flag Croydon 26 Aug 19 9.43am

Originally posted by Badger11

In full? Or is it monthly instalments. I think I read that once TM agreed an extension it meant that the cost also went up on a monthly basis which seems fair enough. If you rent you house and decide to stay longer..

I assume that Johnson is referring to the cost over the two year post Brexit implementation phase and he is saying that we will pay up to end of October and no more if there is no deal hence the 9bn?

Nah, just making it up as he goes along !!!

 
Badger11 Flag Beckenham 26 Aug 19 9.49am

Originally posted by steeleye20

Nah, just making it up as he goes along !!!

Don't they all e.g.. Jeremy I will abolish student fees.

What about those who already pay? Err yeah sure that as well, no wait did I say that no I didn't mean everybody but hey the GE is over now so you can't change your vote.

 

One more point
Invalid user 2019 Flag 26 Aug 19 11.55am

Originally posted by steeleye20

Unless Stokes innings has affected my brain, the 39 billion divorce settlement which Johnston says we do not have to pay in the event of no-deal, is in fact already being paid.

I read some time ago it had been signed off and due to the first date of 31st March, had already started.

We have essentially been forced to listen to the same political talking points for the past three years so the actual details, unfortunately become a footnote rather than a headline. So who knows!

I 'think' though that the divorce bill, is what it says on the tin. This bill is for when we leave, and covers the EUs interpretation of what we owe for existing obligations, past and future. You're right though, in that as result of Brexit dragging on we have been in the EU longer than expectated and so logically will have already paid in ongoing fashion for some of these apparent obligations anyway.

Edited by dollardays (26 Aug 2019 12.11pm)

 
Invalid user 2019 Flag 26 Aug 19 12.08pm

Originally posted by palace_in_frogland

Who’s their leader, Cerys Matthews?

This could be a case for Mulder and Scully

 
Invalid user 2019 Flag 26 Aug 19 12.10pm

This apparently is the basis for the bill:

'In March 2018, the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published the UK's economic and fiscal outlook including details of the financial settlement which it estimated at £37.1 billion (€41.4 billion).[31][26] The estimated settlement was made up of:

£16.4bn (€18.5bn) towards the UK’s contribution to the EU budget to December 2020 (after offsetting for the UK rebate);
£18.2bn (€20.2bn) towards outstanding commitments for projects that have been signed off but not yet paid for by 2020 (The Reste à Liquider ("RAL" from successive Multiannual Financial Frameworks) to be paid up to 2028; and
£2.5bn (€2.7bn) for other financial liabilities, being an estimate for pension liabilities of €9.5bn offset by other assets totalling €6.8bn.[26] The payments towards the pension liabilities are estimated to be made until 2064.[26]

The OBR's updated estimate of the financial settlement in March 2019 was £37.8 billion (€41.8 billion).[3]

The UK would continue to benefit from all programmes as before the withdrawal until their closure under the condition that it respects the applicable EU legal rules'


I'm unsure of whether they're expecting us to pay even if we leave. To my mind when we're no longer in the EU and hence no longer part of many of these projects and commitments we shouldn't be on the hook for payments towards them.

Edited by dollardays (26 Aug 2019 12.14pm)

 
dannyboy1978 Flag 26 Aug 19 12.19pm

As the EU want this 39 billion that Johnson is threatening to hold back then why doesn't the 39 billion get devided by each deal on the table. If a deal is concluded we release the money. If no deal is concluded we hold back the money.
Or is that to simple?

 
Invalid user 2019 Flag 26 Aug 19 12.37pm

Originally posted by dannyboy1978

As the EU want this 39 billion that Johnson is threatening to hold back then why doesn't the 39 billion get devided by each deal on the table. If a deal is concluded we release the money. If no deal is concluded we hold back the money.
Or is that to simple?

At least this way there is an incentive to fashion a deal that actually works for us. Or if not, pull the plug. The trouble with the last three years is that Theresa May was so conflicted and weak on the idea of delivering Brexit that she was a walk over in negotiations. With a different leader over that period, I'm pretty sure there would have been a better deal on the table.


 
Matov Flag 26 Aug 19 4.11pm

Originally posted by dollardays

This apparently is the basis for the bill:

'In March 2018, the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published the UK's economic and fiscal outlook including details of the financial settlement which it estimated at £37.1 billion (€41.4 billion).[31][26] The estimated settlement was made up of:

£16.4bn (€18.5bn) towards the UK’s contribution to the EU budget to December 2020 (after offsetting for the UK rebate);
£18.2bn (€20.2bn) towards outstanding commitments for projects that have been signed off but not yet paid for by 2020 (The Reste à Liquider ("RAL" from successive Multiannual Financial Frameworks) to be paid up to 2028; and
£2.5bn (€2.7bn) for other financial liabilities, being an estimate for pension liabilities of €9.5bn offset by other assets totalling €6.8bn.[26] The payments towards the pension liabilities are estimated to be made until 2064.[26]

The OBR's updated estimate of the financial settlement in March 2019 was £37.8 billion (€41.8 billion).[3]

The UK would continue to benefit from all programmes as before the withdrawal until their closure under the condition that it respects the applicable EU legal rules'


I'm unsure of whether they're expecting us to pay even if we leave. To my mind when we're no longer in the EU and hence no longer part of many of these projects and commitments we shouldn't be on the hook for payments towards them.

Edited by dollardays (26 Aug 2019 12.14pm)

My understanding is that we have a legal obligation of around 7 billion based on projects we have signed off on but that the rest was calculated on the transition period of the proposed WA.

No WA, not payment for the non-existent transition period.

 

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
Invalid user 2019 Flag 26 Aug 19 4.37pm

Originally posted by Matov

My understanding is that we have a legal obligation of around 7 billion based on projects we have signed off on but that the rest was calculated on the transition period of the proposed WA.

No WA, not payment for the non-existent transition period.

Cheers Matov! We can always rely on you to bring the Brexit knowledge.

 
becky Flag over the moon 26 Aug 19 4.54pm

Originally posted by Matov

My understanding is that we have a legal obligation of around 7 billion based on projects we have signed off on but that the rest was calculated on the transition period of the proposed WA.

No WA, not payment for the non-existent transition period.

.....and we'll still be expecting a large cheque for the balance to close our account with the European Central Bank too, thank you!

 

A stairway to Heaven and a Highway to Hell give some indication of expected traffic numbers
ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 26 Aug 19 6.06pm

Originally posted by becky

.....and we'll still be expecting a large cheque for the balance to close our account with the European Central Bank too, thank you!

We've been waiting for our rebate since Thatcher. I think it's safe to say we've written that off.

 

Red and Blue Army!
dannyboy1978 Flag 26 Aug 19 6.47pm

Oh but we must remain in this political union NO MATTER WHAT!!!!

[Link]

 
Stirlingsays Flag 26 Aug 19 7.00pm

Originally posted by dannyboy1978

Oh but we must remain in this political union NO MATTER WHAT!!!!

[Link]

Mother Merkel decided to offer Cameron nothing on freedom of movement on the renegotiation and now Germany get to enjoy the fruits of her decisions as she leaves.

How lucky they were to vote in the East German Merkel....More than a million new Muslims up...before suddenly deciding borders actually mattered and losing the British because of her and France's insistence that certain EU rules are set in stone.

....unless they apply to Germany meeting its budget, or indeed real audits of the EU finances.... or Greek finances before joining....amongst the numerous other eyes averted rule breaks that this cartel ignores.

Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Aug 2019 7.03pm)

 

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)
Invalid user 2019 Flag 27 Aug 19 2.06am

Compiled UK opinion polls 2010-2019

Of course, opinion polls are just indicators so take them with a pinch of salt. It's fascinating to see the political rollercoaster ride of the last 19 years in this form though.

polls.png Attachment: polls.png (553.56Kb)

 
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