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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 03 Oct 19 10.55pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Do you not think they’re trying to make it difficult or even impossible?

No I don't.

I think they are very frustrated and incredibly patient.

If I was PM I would be finding a way to swallow my pride and get the "May" deal over the line because it's the only one that has a chance of flying.

I have never understood what the objections to the backstop are. We are already a sovereign state and leaving would just confirm that. The backstop is intended to be a temporary protection to be used only if the detailed negotiations run over time. Should they do that, and we believed that the reason was down to EU intransigence, then what would stop us simply enacting new UK legislation that removed our commitment to honour the backstop requirements and then default to the WTO rules?

Am I missing something?

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

Teddy Eagle Flag 03 Oct 19 11.10pm

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

No I don't.

I think they are very frustrated and incredibly patient.

If I was PM I would be finding a way to swallow my pride and get the "May" deal over the line because it's the only one that has a chance of flying.

I have never understood what the objections to the backstop are. We are already a sovereign state and leaving would just confirm that. The backstop is intended to be a temporary protection to be used only if the detailed negotiations run over time. Should they do that, and we believed that the reason was down to EU intransigence, then what would stop us simply enacting new UK legislation that removed our commitment to honour the backstop requirements and then default to the WTO rules?

Am I missing something?

Possibly the fact that if leaving was an easy thing to accomplish their whole house of cards might collapse?

 

Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 03 Oct 19 11.55pm

Originally posted by Teddy Eagle

Possibly the fact that if leaving was an easy thing to accomplish their whole house of cards might collapse?

I cannot think of another EU country where part of it is separated by a sea but has a border with another member. Where there is a long history of violence caused by those conditions.

Therefore any other country wanting to leave would not face these issues. I think we are unique in having them. Do you see any similar issues elsewhere?

So I don't see this as an attempt to just throw up barriers to discourage others.

As a side issue just imagine what might happen if, as it might very well in the not too distant future, Scotland holds another independence referendum with the nationalists promising to rejoin the EU? They would likely win but how on earth do we operate that border if the UK government accede to their wishes? Would Wales then want to follow suit? There's no evidence yet of a strong nationalist movement there but I can imagine it taking root after a successful Scottish rejoin. All hypothetical of course but Brexit is a big can of worms.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

Teddy Eagle Flag 04 Oct 19 12.19am

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

I cannot think of another EU country where part of it is separated by a sea but has a border with another member. Where there is a long history of violence caused by those conditions.

Therefore any other country wanting to leave would not face these issues. I think we are unique in having them. Do you see any similar issues elsewhere?

So I don't see this as an attempt to just throw up barriers to discourage others.

As a side issue just imagine what might happen if, as it might very well in the not too distant future, Scotland holds another independence referendum with the nationalists promising to rejoin the EU? They would likely win but how on earth do we operate that border if the UK government accede to their wishes? Would Wales then want to follow suit? There's no evidence yet of a strong nationalist movement there but I can imagine it taking root after a successful Scottish rejoin. All hypothetical of course but Brexit is a big can of worms.

I suspect the situation for Scotland would be complicated by the EUs concern over separatist movements throughout Europe but particularly in Spain and France. There is also the question of currency as Scotland would have to join the Euro if no special deal could be made and the SNP haven’t been keen on that.
For what it’s worth my feeling is that Scotland would vote to remain as part of the UK. If given the opportunity.

 

dreamwaverider Flag London 04 Oct 19 5.48am

THe issue we all must accept that was never considered when the referendum was made is that our current political system and complexities of the UK will never enable a Brexit.
Giving the referendum for leaving Europe was clearly not thought through. Probably because Cameron never thought the leave side would win.
With some 70% of politicians remainers coupled with the complexities of Ireland, it is very unlikely a solution for exit will be found in the foreseeable future.
If I am right, are we going to continue flogging a dead horse while all the while our domestic issues are not being given the attention they deserve? What will happen on 1 November when we haven’t left?

 

Midlands Eagle Flag 04 Oct 19 6.09am

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

I think you have just identified a basic misconception that exists in many minds at the moment. Certainly in those of some posters here but also in government.

It's not for the Irish or the EU as a whole to suggest a solution. They have laid out their requirements and we have to find a way to meet them.

The UK is leaving the EU and not the EU leaving the UK. The EU wants the UK to leave in a way which causes them, and us, the least harm

So if we leave the EU without a deal who's problem does the Irish border become then as we will have fulfilled our obligations to the Irish by not having border checks and the problem becomes that of the EU

 

sickboy Flag Deal or Croydon 04 Oct 19 7.09am

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

So if we leave the EU without a deal who's problem does the Irish border become then as we will have fulfilled our obligations to the Irish by not having border checks and the problem becomes that of the EU

The irish will cave in for another large loan, never to be repaid.
Very high standard of living for a country with the begging bowl out permanently.
They hate the English but not our money.

 

Midlands Eagle Flag 04 Oct 19 7.20am

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

I cannot think of another EU country where part of it is separated by a sea but has a border with another member. Where there is a long history of violence caused by those conditions.

I must have had it wrong for all these years as I thought that the history of violence was due to mutually religious hatred

 

sickboy Flag Deal or Croydon 04 Oct 19 7.26am

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

I must have had it wrong for all these years as I thought that the history of violence was due to mutually religious hatred

Glad to see you're finally falling into line midland.

 

Badger11 Flag Beckenham 04 Oct 19 7.40am

As predicted Remainers are putting the blame solely on Johnson's head without a breath of criticism of the EU.

Question: when was the last time a prominent Remainer actually criticised the EU? Leavers criticise their side all the time and most of us are realistic to know that our politicians are far from perfect.

It would be nice just occasionally to hear an EU supporter voice the mildest of criticism of their side that maybe just maybe the EU could be a little more proactive?

Back to the issue in hand if the EU never wanted a deal then they have played a blinder. If however they do want a deal then it is not enough to keep saying to the UK government not good enough go away and came back with another idea. How about about making your own suggestions on what is acceptable other than the back stop which our Parliament has rejected 3 times.

Still all to play for but no deal looking increasingly likely.

Edited by Badger11 (04 Oct 2019 8.16am)

 


One more point

Midlands Eagle Flag 04 Oct 19 7.51am

Originally posted by Badger11

Still all to play for but no deal looking increasingly likely.

If we leave without a deal and the EU refuse to put up any borders in Ireland I think that I will change professions and become a smuggler as there will be fortunes to be made smuggling goods over the non existent border.

No doubt the more dim witted remainers will start spouting off that it was Boris's plan all along as he's backed by an international smuggling ring

 

palace_in_frogland Flag In a broken dream 04 Oct 19 8.02am

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

If we leave without a deal and the EU refuse to put up any borders in Ireland I think that I will change professions and become a smuggler as there will be fortunes to be made smuggling goods over the non existent border.

No doubt the more dim witted remainers will start spouting off that it was Boris's plan all along as he's backed by an international smuggling ring

Smuggling hedges across the herbaceous border?

 

Badger11 Flag Beckenham 04 Oct 19 8.18am

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

If we leave without a deal and the EU refuse to put up any borders in Ireland I think that I will change professions and become a smuggler as there will be fortunes to be made smuggling goods over the non existent border.

No doubt the more dim witted remainers will start spouting off that it was Boris's plan all along as he's backed by an international smuggling ring

If we leave without a deal don't be surprised if the EU suddenly realises that there is a way to manage the Irish border problem after all.

 


One more point

martin2412 Flag Living The Dream 04 Oct 19 8.55am

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

MPs should always act on their convictions. They are entitled to change their minds in the light of new knowledge or greater experience. Parties can leave MPs just as much as MPs can leave parties. Promises made yesterday can become inappropriate tomorrow. Events change things and MPs need not to wear boots of clay.

They should be prosecuted if they don't act according to their consciences.

MP's should not be allowed to leave the Conservative Party for example, and then be allowed to be a Liberal Democrat MP. Their constituents voted them in as Conservative, not Lib Dem.

If they want to leave then fair enough, but they should wait until a general election and canvass votes for their new party before they can become an MP for them.

Under the current system Chuka Umunna is just an MP for hire.

 

Teddy Eagle Flag 04 Oct 19 9.56am

Originally posted by palace_in_frogland

Smuggling hedges across the herbaceous border?

Hasn’t Jacob R-M got something to do with hedges? Or is that the Privet Councillor?

 

becky Flag over the moon 04 Oct 19 9.58am

Originally posted by palace_in_frogland

Smuggling hedges across the herbaceous border?

Yeh, but just think of all that lovely cheap smuggled tarmac the 'travellers' will be able to bring in to do your driveway with.....

 


A stairway to Heaven and a Highway to Hell give some indication of expected traffic numbers

Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 04 Oct 19 10.17am

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

So if we leave the EU without a deal who's problem does the Irish border become then as we will have fulfilled our obligations to the Irish by not having border checks and the problem becomes that of the EU

I guess both would have problems as trade, and people, flow both ways.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 04 Oct 19 10.24am

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

I must have had it wrong for all these years as I thought that the history of violence was due to mutually religious hatred

Of course it is the hatred which underlies it but the partition of Ireland and the fight of the republicans to reunite the country has been the motivation for the violence. Reinstating a border whose lines have become more blurred is thought to be a threat to continuing peace by people close to the matter.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 04 Oct 19 10.56am

Originally posted by Badger11


Still all to play for but no deal looking increasingly likely.

Edited by Badger11 (04 Oct 2019 8.16am)

Why? I think an extension followed by a GE is much more likely.

If this "final offer" is rejected, as seems inevitable to me, then it seems that the gap is far too large in basic understanding of what is required for there to be any realistic prospect of tweaks making any difference. I truly hope I am wrong.

If I am right then we will be down to finding out what Parliament will decide to do. This government are not in control of matters.

Elsewhere in this thread I have read suggestions that as EU law is superior to UK law that the triggering of Article 50 would stand above the requirements of the Benn Act. This is the relevant clause in Article 50:-

"3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period."

The key phrase being "in agreement with the Member State concerned".

UK law applies to all, so if the PM is required to ask for an extension then he is obliged by law to do so. That applies whether Johnson is still the PM or has been replaced.

My conclusion therefore is that this is all electioneering and not a serious attempt at finding a deal. Johnson is setting up the scene (choreographed by his stage designer Cummings) ready for his next big performance as the martyr who tried to do what "we" wanted, but was blocked at every turn. This is all about him. He is entertaining in an Arthur Daley kind of way but I wouldn't buy a car from him either.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

W12 04 Oct 19 11.07am

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Why? I think an extension followed by a GE is much more likely.

If this "final offer" is rejected, as seems inevitable to me, then it seems that the gap is far too large in basic understanding of what is required for there to be any realistic prospect of tweaks making any difference. I truly hope I am wrong.

If I am right then we will be down to finding out what Parliament will decide to do. This government are not in control of matters.

Elsewhere in this thread I have read suggestions that as EU law is superior to UK law that the triggering of Article 50 would stand above the requirements of the Benn Act. This is the relevant clause in Article 50:-

"3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period."

The key phrase being "in agreement with the Member State concerned".

UK law applies to all, so if the PM is required to ask for an extension then he is obliged by law to do so. That applies whether Johnson is still the PM or has been replaced.

My conclusion therefore is that this is all electioneering and not a serious attempt at finding a deal. Johnson is setting up the scene (choreographed by his stage designer Cummings) ready for his next big performance as the martyr who tried to do what "we" wanted, but was blocked at every turn. This is all about him. He is entertaining in an Arthur Daley kind of way but I wouldn't buy a car from him either.

I tend to agree (which is weird in itself).

The only doubt I have with this reading of the situation is that Boris has said he will not ask for an extension under any circumstances. Brexiteers like myself will see this as a clear betrayal if he goes back on his words and he won't be forgiven. That would potentially open the door to a Corbyn or Farage government as the vote would be salami sliced.

Almost equally likely though is that as they are now so out of touch, they will vote through a highly compromised version of May's deal thinking that this will appease the country (it will not).

Can't see a no deal unless we extend and then Farage gets a majority so an extension may be the best bet for people who want rid of all the EU institutions.

Personally I would dissolve the union with Scotland which would immediately remove us from the EU, revoke all the terrible laws passed by Blair and give us billions back per year in tax revenue and reduced public spending. Also just to see the look on Blackford's face.

 

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