The implication that immigration is linked to crime or social cohesion is as I expect you are aware a questionable cause fallacy, as correlation does not imply causation. The other problem with this argument is that crime in the UK has over the past 40 years fallen quite dramatically.

Edited by kuge (13 Sep 2021 3.05pm)

Still in denial it seems.

How statistics are gathered has changed...Also I think you're referring to 'crime surveys' rather than Police statistics which increases since 2014. Crime surveys are flawed....for example, half of all knife crime happens in London, so a national crime survey isn't going to reflect the concerns there because outside of cities it's less common.

Unfortunately for your contention, crimes like homicides can't be mucked around with and the pretense clearly fails. Go and look at the historical data for England and Wales from say 1940, note the population size and then compare it to now.

Also the 'correlation does not imply causation' excuse doesn't work because it happens pretty much in every region hit by high immigration. Also the higher crime rate follows certain groups around independent of the country they reside in.

Indeed, even when you filter...which is a far more sensible immigration policy....the rate of crime from certain groups is still higher.

It's too late for the UK, but what you advocate for Japan kind of suggests you really don't like them.

Edited by Stirlingsays (13 Sep 2021 3.46pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Sorry cryst, not quite true anymore. If you were over 21 before 2002 & held a full GB license, then yes you can. A 7.5t vehicle is now classed as a Class 4 LGV(as is anything 5t & over).

This operation, will make the 'Charge Of The Light Brigade' seem like a simple military exercise.

The Krays were notorious because their crimes were relatively rare.

Today, the Krays would not even be famous ( nor infamous ). Their story would be swallowed up in the crimewave of Croydon, London or whereverthef..ck.

Kayla did Anfield & Old Trafford

I am not in denial I am just looking at the data.

Correlation does not imply causation is not an excuse, it’s a central tenet of statistical logic.

Immigration causes crime (direct causation), crime causes immigration (reverse causation), immigration and crime are both caused by something else, immigration causes crime and crime causes immigration (cyclic causation), there is no connection between immigration and crime therefore the correlation is a coincidence.

I agree that it is very important to seduce the cause of something before we can seek t change it.
As Aristotle wrote, "we do not have knowledge of a thing until we have grasped its why, that is to say, its cause”.

Regarding crime figures, they have clearly fallen and they continue to fall.
You suggest that the methods of collecting and interpreting data have changed.
That may well be true but there is no date available that shows crime rising.

[Link]

In relation to homicide.

This link shows that homicide has been falling since all records began.

[Link]

In the UK in 2017 the last year for which complete data is available there were 355 homicides.
In 1990 there were 614 homicides, in 1995 there were 574 homicides, in 2000 there were 466 homicides and in 2010 there were 398 homicides.

Out of interest in 2017, the 355 homicides compares to 2,678 road deaths, 5,777 suicides and 179,856 cancer deaths.

Just to be clear I love Japan. I love the people, the culture, the food and the language. In general the Japanese tend to be rather xenophobic. And as is not uncommon they are most antagonistic towards Koreans, the people that are culturally closest to them. Westerners are generally admired but there is an underlying sense that they also find western attitudes rather coarse.

There is, however, a growing realisation especially amongst the young who are facing an enormous tax burden to support an ageing population, that without immigration the country will cease to function.

Without immigration, in 60 years the country will be near enough empty. If you want to look at some really frightening data check out the birth rate in Japan. The population has been falling since 2015 and nothing other than immigration will arrest this.

[Link]

As someone with an economics background, Stirling's understanding and use of statistics to try and support his arguments makes me want to weep.

There's no point though - he's a lost cause. There will always be something he tries to use to shoehorn in to fit his ideology no matter how tenuous or statistically illiterate.

The statistics are there provided from the home office on homicides and it can't be faked unlike other stats.

They go back to 1898.....it can be deliberately shown so that a comparison can be made pre and post immigration.

Yet you don't address the statistics that prove a considerable increase in murder rates since the first wave of immigrants grew into adults with its mostly increases to this day......considerably higher rates than the population. These relative increases will also show the same for other violent crime.

It's not just the immigration importation of significantly different cultures, it's social liberalism on families (family breakup/missing fathers) and I suspect that increases in wealth inequality also plays a role....though the stats show different rates for different groups there also and that's even controlled for wealth if you bother to look.

Also I have to say, your waffle over causation doesn't hide the fact that often correlation is the cause. That fallacy is there only as a correct ballast against faulty assumptions. It is not there to dismiss the obvious.

The evidence is so overwhelmingly against you that it just comes across as a leftist defending the ideology because you know that your fellow denialists are watching.

Edited by Stirlingsays (13 Sep 2021 5.16pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Here is a snippet taken from the home office's look at trends in homicide that itself admits the increases in murder rate against population size....though it is careful not to look into the reasons for it.

[Link]

What do trends in homicide look like?

There were 671 offences currently recorded as homicides in the year ending March 2019.1 This was 33 fewer (5% decrease) than in the previous year (Appendix Table 1).

To put the number of homicides in context, incidence rates show the volume of offences as a proportion of the resident population. The incidence rate for homicide remains very low, with 11.4 homicides recorded per million population during the year ending March 2019, a similar rate to the previous two years.

The number of homicides increased from around 300 per year in the early 1960s to over 700 per year in the early years of this century. This was at a faster rate than population growth over the same period, with the rate of homicide increasing from around 6 per million population in the early 1960s to 15.2 by the year ending March 2002.2 However, from the peak in this year, the volume of homicides generally decreased while the population of England and Wales continued to grow. The rate of homicide fell to 8.9 per million population in the year ending March 2015, before increasing until the year ending March 2018 (12.0). The latest year shows the first fall in homicides since the year ending March 2015, and a slight decrease in the homicide rate (Figure 1).'

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Since 1997 category C1 is up to 7500kg looking at dvla website.