You are absolutely correct that it is the state-by-state numbers that determine the Presidency. These national polls are good to get a high-level snapshot of public opinion, though.

Trump won the election by winning the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - each by a few thousand votes out of millions cast. The total count for votes cast in these states for both Trump and Clinton is 13,233,376, with Trump getting a total of 77,744 votes more than Clinton. In none of these states was the margin of Trump's win greater than 1%.

Voters in these states bought in to his economic populism - including promises to raise taxes on the wealthy and never cut social security benefits. Pennsylvania is also home to the coal industry, which Trump famously championed. Well the one major bill that he might yet get to sign this year reneges on all those promises.

A poll from August this year - which notably pre-dates the tax bill that will be felt bigly by voters in these states - had Trump's approval at 33%, 36% and 33% respectively. [Link]

Compared to his vote percentage in those three states during the election of 47%, 47% and 48% respectively, that's an "unpresidented" drop in a single year.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

Roy Moore praises the era of slavery, putin and says America is the focus of evil - [Link]

We've all paid a heavy price to protect the IOUSA petro-dollar.

The sooner it ends the better.

Buy Litecoin.

I, too, think he'll win. I also think he'll serve in the Senate until he retires or dies (such is the state of incumbency in Congress).

The immediate calculus is that his vote may well be needed to pass the reconciled tax bill that will come back to the Senate for a re-vote some time this month. That's the devil's bargain the Republican Party is making right now - the same devil's bargain they made when they embraced and enabled Trump as President. Tax cuts uber alles!

Don't forget that Obamacare repeal was just a tax cut in disguise. They were going to leave the Act mostly in place and just eliminate the things that paid for it, like taxes and the individual mandate. That failed by a single vote; the current tax cut bill passed 51-49 in the Senate, including outgoing Alabama Senator Luther Strange's vote "aye". If Strange is replaced by Jones, not Moore, they're at 50-50 which is still a win with the tie being broken by Mike Pence, but it puts them in a vote crunch that gives any one Republican Senator extraordinary leverage to extract a high price for his or her vote.

Even with Moore, a single flip (like Susan Collins of Maine) puts them back in the tie scenario. Without Moore, the bill would die the death of Obamacare repeal. Unlike Obamacare repeal, there isn't a time bar on them bringing this up again (and again and again) if they need to. But I'm not sure they can implement it for 2018 if it's not signed before the end of 2017.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

I see what you're saying, and I agree that structures are in place that essentially redistribute wealth to the rich, for instance, whoever is in power. That said, the presidency previous to Obama did that on an unthinkably huge scale and waved bye bye to several trillion that could've been used to improve the lives of Americans, instead of achieve the opposite abroad.

And yes, giving Obama the Nobel Peace prize was ridiculous.

Edited by wordup (08 Dec 2017 9.59pm)

Trillions shifted hands during the Iraq years and not in the direction of anyone in need. Then again, if I'm wrong and wrong. The wealth gap in greater than ever so certainly no-one has been or is looking out for 'the little guy'. The passing of this latest tax bill is proof of that too. Though it's of course clouded by throwing an emotionally comforting bone via trumps twitter account to those who can be kept onside and disadvantaged at the same time. But the latest approval polls tell us all we need to know.

Since you seem to have an out of the box view of things or are not easily swayed by 'teams', what steps do you think need to be taken to everyone the lot of the average person?

The USA unemployment rate is at is lowest level since the year 2000. The fall in unemployment may have started under previous administration but it's continued to fall under Trump.

Now ask yourself, if you had a family to feed and where on the breadline, what would you care more about:
- Getting a job
- Claims that the president has acted inappropriately towards some rich women.

The Democrats need to sort themselves out and realise that jobs are more important to people than anything else.

Mate, the Republicans have literally just lost an election in one of the most Republican states in the US.

Have you seen Trump's tax legislation? It's a disgrace. As is his healthcare plan.

The man is the biggest plutocrat in populist clothing since Nero. I feel sorry for the US middle and working classes.

But down he goes.

"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]