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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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leifandersonshair Flag Newport 06 May 16 12.46pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

The Remains don't deny that the EU is a mess that needs reforming. Sadly, they have deluded themselves , or are trying to fool us, that Britain can influence a big reform. This is a total fantasy of course since we have failed to do so up until now and our chances of ever doing so are diluted every time a new member joins.

The real truth is that Britain will become ever more marginalised in a United States of Europe and our democratic system will count for next to nothing in all the big decision making.

We have to make a stand now or see the process accelerated and the borders of Britain become meaningless. It is coming if we vote to stay in.

Any financial downturn will be short term and we will be stuck with being the European equivalent of Oregon.

It's a gamble either way. Brexit WILL impact on our economy,probably negatively, in the short term- I don't think anyone can deny that. The question is, will it be a brief blip, before the UK bounces back stronger than ever, or will it plunge us into economic turmoil?

And unfortunately, no one knows. Markets are volatile by nature. It's equally easy to see a UK economy, 12 months after Brexit, slowly recovering or plunging out of control into a deep recession.

 

Kermit8 Flag Hevon 06 May 16 12.58pm

Originally posted by leifandersonshair

It's a gamble either way. Brexit WILL impact on our economy,probably negatively, in the short term- I don't think anyone can deny that. The question is, will it be a brief blip, before the UK bounces back stronger than ever, or will it plunge us into economic turmoil?

And unfortunately, no one knows. Markets are volatile by nature. It's equally easy to see a UK economy, 12 months after Brexit, slowly recovering or plunging out of control into a deep recession.

Fair points. Brexit will take two years once ignited and then we have the years on top of that to sign off the multitude of newly-negotiated trade deals.

There will be a blip - how strong no-one knows - but can't see it being brief because of the time scales.

Edited by Kermit8 (06 May 2016 12.59pm)

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


davenotamonkey Flag 06 May 16 1.14pm

Originally posted by Kermit8

For you monkey. Add this lot up.

Comes to around trillion. For the WHOLE world.

[Link]

Lol

swiss_ftas.png Attachment: swiss_ftas.png (57.48Kb)

 

Kermit8 Flag Hevon 06 May 16 1.25pm

Ha -ha - Who made that up? Very professional.

I think you need a lie-down.

Here are the official Swiss trade figures not quickly tapped into excel by some spotty financially-challenged geek.

You will notice the lack of the word 'trillions'

I hope anyway

[Link]

Never come into the room without the figures. I'm oot.

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 06 May 16 1.30pm

Originally posted by leifandersonshair

It's a gamble either way. Brexit WILL impact on our economy,probably negatively, in the short term- I don't think anyone can deny that. The question is, will it be a brief blip, before the UK bounces back stronger than ever, or will it plunge us into economic turmoil?

And unfortunately, no one knows. Markets are volatile by nature. It's equally easy to see a UK economy, 12 months after Brexit, slowly recovering or plunging out of control into a deep recession.

One has to ask if the economic question is really more important than the future of our sovereignty and democracy.

 

johnfirewall Flag 06 May 16 2.03pm

Originally posted by Kermit8

Ha -ha - Who made that up? Very professional.

I think you need a lie-down.

Here are the official Swiss trade figures not quickly tapped into excel by some spotty financially-challenged geek.

You will notice the lack of the word 'trillions'

I hope anyway

[Link]

Never come into the room without the figures. I'm oot.

'in CHF million'

i.e. 29'752 (000,000)

Although I've no idea what a Swiss Franc is worth.

 

davenotamonkey Flag 06 May 16 2.22pm

Originally posted by Kermit8


It's not irrelevant (no ports) and you've lost the financial plot man. The question you need to find the answer to - in order to present a logical case - is what percentage of that trillions can Switzerland reasonably expect to tap into rather than give the false impression that they have access to all of the markets therein.

I like the rants though. They make you seem intelligent even if non-sensical.

Edited by Kermit8 (06 May 2016 12.28pm)

Poor landlocked Switzerland, with their US$ 84,700 GDP/capita (UK: US$45,600 GDP/capita) - how on earth do the manage trading outside of the EU?

Can you explain why ports are necessary for low-volume high-value goods exports and services that the Swiss export? Or have I missed all the Swiss copper and potassium mines shipping out to China? Do financial services arrive on a big barge? Does Swiss Re (2nd largest global re-insurer) pack all their documentation into shipping containers? Hahahaha. And I've lost the plot, right? Like it or not, as we move towards a progressively digital, globalised economy, geographical location and the 19th/20th Century infrastructural constructs the EU still hangs desperately onto will become less and less important. The Swiss already demonstrate that.

"false impression they have access to all the markets therein".

I need present no such logical case. They have access. That is fact (not even one of those, ahem, "exaggerated facts", s******). Their clear success at trade and consequent wealth (for a very small country) is evidence enough. They can expand and grow to develop in those markets as they feel fit, according to their own national trading strategy (compare and contrast: we get handed down agreements we have had a 1/28th say in). This is, to say the least, a complete irrelevance to the point: we do not need the EU to negotiate trade agreements on our behalf, indeed it's sclerotic pace in conducting such negotiations is very likely harming our potential growth.

I will add as a final point on this subject that such is our regulatory convergence (by definition) with the EU (and by extension conformity to trade agreements it has negotiated with powerhouses such as San Marino) the typical protracted negotation-stage of harmonising of standards will be... well, non-existent. I imagine this significantly shortens the timescale to reach trade agreements. Put into English: "Hey, San Marino - remember that deal you have with the EU? Well, we've just left, and all our standards and regulations are the same. Fancy some free trade on the same basis as before?"

I don't even know why I'm bothering. Your argument has just taken a final lurch to the incredulous. I now have to demonstrate to you that free-trade access to nearly 6X the market wealth that the EU currently has is a "bad thing". I have demonstrated that nations outside the EU are able to conclude trade deals much faster than the EU. I have demonstrated that, on Brexit, we do not lose trade agreements we do not already have.

You are utterly blinded by your dogmatic ideology, and it is frightening. All you have left is to snidely suggest I am "nonsensically ranting" and wrapping up facts as "exaggerated facts", while at each stage I have (with progressive exasperation) responded to your points. You are deaf to them, as you are to reason and factual evidence. Take off the blinkers and look beyond your myopic horizons.

 

elgrande Flag bedford 06 May 16 3.15pm

Originally posted by davenotamonkey

Poor landlocked Switzerland, with their US$ 84,700 GDP/capita (UK: US,600 GDP/capita) - how on earth do the manage trading outside of the EU?

Can you explain why ports are necessary for low-volume high-value goods exports and services that the Swiss export? Or have I missed all the Swiss copper and potassium mines shipping out to China? Do financial services arrive on a big barge? Does Swiss Re (2nd largest global re-insurer) pack all their documentation into shipping containers? Hahahaha. And I've lost the plot, right? Like it or not, as we move towards a progressively digital, globalised economy, geographical location and the 19th/20th Century infrastructural constructs the EU still hangs desperately onto will become less and less important. The Swiss already demonstrate that.

"false impression they have access to all the markets therein".

I need present no such logical case. They have access. That is fact (not even one of those, ahem, "exaggerated facts", s******). Their clear success at trade and consequent wealth (for a very small country) is evidence enough. They can expand and grow to develop in those markets as they feel fit, according to their own national trading strategy (compare and contrast: we get handed down agreements we have had a 1/28th say in). This is, to say the least, a complete irrelevance to the point: we do not need the EU to negotiate trade agreements on our behalf, indeed it's sclerotic pace in conducting such negotiations is very likely harming our potential growth.

I will add as a final point on this subject that such is our regulatory convergence (by definition) with the EU (and by extension conformity to trade agreements it has negotiated with powerhouses such as San Marino) the typical protracted negotation-stage of harmonising of standards will be... well, non-existent. I imagine this significantly shortens the timescale to reach trade agreements. Put into English: "Hey, San Marino - remember that deal you have with the EU? Well, we've just left, and all our standards and regulations are the same. Fancy some free trade on the same basis as before?"

I don't even know why I'm bothering. Your argument has just taken a final lurch to the incredulous. I now have to demonstrate to you that free-trade access to nearly 6X the market wealth that the EU currently has is a "bad thing". I have demonstrated that nations outside the EU are able to conclude trade deals much faster than the EU. I have demonstrated that, on Brexit, we do not lose trade agreements we do not already have.

You are utterly blinded by your dogmatic ideology, and it is frightening. All you have left is to snidely suggest I am "nonsensically ranting" and wrapping up facts as "exaggerated facts", while at each stage I have (with progressive exasperation) responded to your points. You are deaf to them, as you are to reason and factual evidence. Take off the blinkers and look beyond your myopic horizons.

Brilliant, you can pull your trousers up now Kermit..... I think he's done with you.

 


always a Norwood boy, where ever I live.

Charlie Croker Flag Hampshire 06 May 16 3.25pm

I have a view I'm not prepared to share on here - BUT I worked the election yesterday and it's amazing how many came in hoping to vote for the EU referendum and then made an obvious comment that "Leave" would be their vote.

Now, casting aside the fact that they can't even read a calendar, and that it's based on a small % of the total possible votes in that small ward (low turnout), but I think it might be closer than some think . . .

 


“My experience of life is that it is not divided up into genres; it’s a horrifying, romantic, tragic, comical, science-fiction cowboy detective novel. You know, with a bit of pornography if you’re lucky."

davenotamonkey Flag 06 May 16 3.47pm

Originally posted by Kermit8

Ha -ha - Who made that up? Very professional.

I think you need a lie-down.

Here are the official Swiss trade figures not quickly tapped into excel by some spotty financially-challenged geek.

You will notice the lack of the word 'trillions'

I hope anyway

[Link]

Never come into the room without the figures. I'm oot.


Who "made it up"? The IMF - it is their 2015 GDP figures. How they are entered is irrelevant. They are the figures. You are welcome to check them here:

[Link]

Perhaps you are confusing trade volume with market values. I will say it again, because you are struggling:

The Swiss have free trade access to markets with a combined GDP $US40tn
The EU has free trade access to markets with a combined GDP $US7tn

To give you some idea of scale (again, because you are struggling, and it's in my nature to help those that struggle to understand) - the Gross World Product (GWP) is about US$78.28tn.

Rather than fixate on this lost battle of yours, contemplate the war: this point was raised to demonstrate the glacial and constrained nature of international trade under the EU. Quibbling over how good or bad the Swiss have it is largely moot. The figures support my assertions: restrictive, geographically protectionist customs unions like the EU are a thing of yesteryear. Agile dynamic economies thrive by forging links quickly with emerging economies. We need to get with the modern world and stop trying to shoehorn it into 1950s economic constructs.

You are, indeed, "oot"

 

JohnyBoy Flag 06 May 16 4.38pm

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

Its the 1998 Human Rights Act, an act of the UK Parliament. Arguably the act actually makes the UK less dependent on the European court, as prior to this rights based legislation could not be resolved in UK courts (only the European Court).

The establishment of the act simply means that the UK courts could deal with cases, directly, and only needs to refer them up to the European Court of Human Rights.

There is absolutely no need for a Bill of Rights, as UK citizens already have a series of rights, defined in law, and would still require an independent court of arbitration to review conflicts within law (which must be political neutral - which is why the European court makes sense, as it can always appoint judges unaffiliated to the country and parties in question, that has a specialisation in constitutional law, as well as providing a large pool of judges to choose from), with the costs deferred across all of the member states.

Thank you again Jamie, you are a wealth of knowledge

 

JohnyBoy Flag 06 May 16 5.24pm

Originally posted by davenotamonkey

Yes, most people's day-to-day experience is exposure to the UK laws that merely rubberstamp EU law. So indeed you likely are very ignorant of it...

...Otherwise you would have presumably heard of the EU Mortgage Credit Directive (2014/17/EU) rather than the UK law that makes us "compliant". I'm sure it's a great directive though. It's prevented the great unwashed from securing cheaper mortgages. Great, eh? Don't worry - it also impacts conveyancing, but "yip" it's not even mentioned.

[Link]

Then, of course, there's the Cross-Border Conveyancing Reference Framework. Also nothing to do with the EU, no, it really isn't "dude".

Ok so i have spent my day going through the conveyancing which i had to do because this is a large chunk of change for me. I also kept a little eye out for the 40% nay 70% of eu law. I had to go through a few covenants, building contracts and a niggly border dispute with a neighbour who was throwing the book at my vendor because of a 3inch intrusion from a planter ffs!!. At the end i spoke to my lawyer and said i had a few wording changes but nothing significant. But i could have asked (from davemonkeys advice) hang on what about the european credit mortgage thingy but knew he would reply with "listen Johnyboy stop talkin out of your elbow, you are not even arranging a mortgage" and that would be something with the mortgage company, not conveyancing right? Right so i didnt ask. But then i thought i better tell Paul (cos he has done my legals for 20 years) ....but Paul surely atleast 40% nay 70% of this contract is missing because i cant find any mention of the eu cross border underpants law or any other eu law for that matter. I am sure that there may be some overarching eu law that protects consumers and prevents unfair practice but i honestly could not find one. So what should i do with davesmonkey advice .....i should maybe ask Paul but you can probably imagine his response. You know what i should probably change my lawyer for being too uk centric.
But ....in defence i do have a credit agreement for my mobile, although all the key stuff is ofcourse under uk law of contract but again there is an overarching agreement under eu law that will force mobile companies to lower their roaming charges but surely thats a good thing right?
And then i thought about 6 months ago i had to do jury service and sat on 3 jurys and i swear not once did i hear any mention of eu laws in the charges that the 3 defendents faced....although again there are some overarching pesky european human rights laws right? Well youd probably hope so? But it remains true to say 99% oc my day to day experience of legal matters are completely unaffected by eu law.
And then i just thought this 40% nay 70% claim distorts the so called facts.
Take Hoofs example that we will all be living under Sharia law if we vote remain. I took it as a joke hence my shiraz reply...it was a joke right? But what is happening is that we taking these extremely remote possibilities and using this to push their case. Some could say that there is also a possibility that Hoof will have a sex change, start supporting Brighton and start dancing classes. Highly unlikely in my opinion and i know he will calling me silly and facetious (should actually take it as a compliment Hoof cos i think you are the least likely poster on here to start dance classes)....but it is not impossible is it. But then if i start using this tiny possibility as the basis for my case, i should be told that i am at best exaggerrating or actually being completely misleading or even offensive. And so it is with all this legal talk of 40% nay 70% of our laws coming from the eu and i will bet any of you 50 lap dances (your up Hoof -first gig) if you can tell me that in your DAY TO DAY experience of legal matters you are severely or negtively impacted by eu law. I defer to my more learned legal friends ofcourse!!

 

leifandersonshair Flag Newport 06 May 16 5.56pm

Originally posted by Charlie Croker

I have a view I'm not prepared to share on here - BUT I worked the election yesterday and it's amazing how many came in hoping to vote for the EU referendum and then made an obvious comment that "Leave" would be their vote.

Now, casting aside the fact that they can't even read a calendar, and that it's based on a small % of the total possible votes in that small ward (low turnout), but I think it might be closer than some think . . .

Those stupid and ill informed enough to not even know when a crucial vote is suggests they have no clue about the arguments- they've probably made up their minds because they 'don't want any more foreigners here' and will ignore any facts, on both sides.

I'm not saying you're wrong, merely that it's depressing such muppets could make a difference!

 

Hoof Hearted 07 May 16 11.15am

Originally posted by leifandersonshair

Those stupid and ill informed enough to not even know when a crucial vote is suggests they have no clue about the arguments- they've probably made up their minds because they 'don't want any more foreigners here' and will ignore any facts, on both sides.

I'm not saying you're wrong, merely that it's depressing such muppets could make a difference!

"Muppets" as you amusingly refer to them (I'm sure someone will be offended on their behalf).... exist on all sides of the political spectrum.

For years voters in places like South Wales, Sunderland and Glasgow have turned up in their numbers to vote Labour without knowing about manifesto's or anything else except the message drummed in to their feeble minds "Labour is for the working classes".

Now those "muppets" aren't voting the way you want, they are to be despised and ridiculed.

Maybe a lot of them have now realised that when they voted for Tony Blair in 97 and later Brown - they had shafted the working classes by allowing millions of foreigners into our country driving down wages and causing house price rises and delays in seeing your GP, or getting your kids in a local school etc.

You can't blame the "muppets" for waking up and smelling the coffee.

 

dannyh Flag wherever I lay my hat....... 07 May 16 11.39am

Originally posted by elgrande

Brilliant, you can pull your trousers up now Kermit..... I think he's done with you.

Back up you mean

Kerm you are still well and truly owned.

 


"It's not the bullet that's got my name on it that concerns me; it's all them other ones flyin' around marked 'To Whom It May Concern.'"

davenotamonkey Flag 07 May 16 6.22pm

Originally posted by dannyh

Back up you mean

Kerm you are still well and truly owned.

Tell you what was really interesting from my exchanges with him: the word "sn1gger" is verboten on here!

That was about all that was interesting about it...

 

davenotamonkey Flag 07 May 16 6.45pm

Originally posted by npn

Would it?

Not questioning the validity of your argument, necessarily, just interested to hear why/how a pre-written agreement would need to change because of a change in the EU membership

“There’s absolutely no connection between the peace process and the European Union ... I think this is just scaremongering.”

“Well, nobody’s actually spelt out [the alleged threat to peace] – they go around saying it would cause a problem, but they haven’t said how it would cause a problem.

“I do not see that there is a problem, and I’d love to see people pointing out just what the difficulty is.

“I think it’s just grabbing at anything they can find to try and make an argument.”

-- Lord David Trimble, former First Minister of Northern Ireland, Chairman of the Good Friday Agreement, recipient of the Nobel peace prize for his important role in the GFA negotiations.

I think these quotes epitomise the Remain campaign in a nutshell: non-specific threats and scaremongering, fear of what "might" happen based on either clear misinformation or selective reporting of events (as was very evident in the taxpayer-funded "leaflet".

 

Kermit8 Flag Hevon 07 May 16 7.23pm

Originally posted by davenotamonkey

Tell you what was really interesting from my exchanges with him: the word "sn1gger" is verboten on here!

That was about all that was interesting about it...


Yeah, of course. That is why you wrote 3,000 words or summat in reply, Because you weren't 'interested'.

I repeat - if you think Switzerland have the potential to drum up $40trillion dollars worth of trade because they don't belong to a 'bloc' all I can say is Ralph Wiggum would make a better economist. And that's being cruel to Ralph. So can Costa Rica in that case and The Faroe Islands. They aren't in a 'bloc' either.

Thank fvck you are on the 'out' side. Keep up the good work.

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


leifandersonshair Flag Newport 07 May 16 7.42pm

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

"Muppets" as you amusingly refer to them (I'm sure someone will be offended on their behalf).... exist on all sides of the political spectrum.

For years voters in places like South Wales, Sunderland and Glasgow have turned up in their numbers to vote Labour without knowing about manifesto's or anything else except the message drummed in to their feeble minds "Labour is for the working classes".

Now those "muppets" aren't voting the way you want, they are to be despised and ridiculed.

Maybe a lot of them have now realised that when they voted for Tony Blair in 97 and later Brown - they had shafted the working classes by allowing millions of foreigners into our country driving down wages and causing house price rises and delays in seeing your GP, or getting your kids in a local school etc.

You can't blame the "muppets" for waking up and smelling the coffee.

Not voting the way I want? No, I'm merely saying it's depressing that such ignorant people, regardless of where they stand on the political spectrum (and there will be plenty on left, right and central!) or whether they will vote in or out, can (and probably will) have such a big say.

Basically, the silly, uninformed people who have made their minds up- either way- based on half truths, fear, what some bloke down the pub said, what the Sun or Mirror says, or what x politician who they sort of fancy said.

I know you're solidly right wing, Hoof, and no doubt will be voting Out. I'm left leaning, and will be voting In. I have no doubt you have considered the various arguments before making your choice- I know I have. Sad to say, a dozen 'muppets' will probably turn up on polling day and completely invalidate our votes!

That's the trouble with democracy though- everyone has a say, even the muppets

Edited by leifandersonshair (07 May 2016 7.42pm)

 

Hoof Hearted 08 May 16 10.55am

Originally posted by leifandersonshair

Not voting the way I want? No, I'm merely saying it's depressing that such ignorant people, regardless of where they stand on the political spectrum (and there will be plenty on left, right and central!) or whether they will vote in or out, can (and probably will) have such a big say.

Basically, the silly, uninformed people who have made their minds up- either way- based on half truths, fear, what some bloke down the pub said, what the Sun or Mirror says, or what x politician who they sort of fancy said.

I know you're solidly right wing, Hoof, and no doubt will be voting Out. I'm left leaning, and will be voting In. I have no doubt you have considered the various arguments before making your choice- I know I have. Sad to say, a dozen 'muppets' will probably turn up on polling day and completely invalidate our votes!

That's the trouble with democracy though- everyone has a say, even the muppets

Edited by leifandersonshair (07 May 2016 7.42pm)

The intelligent voters will drill down on detail and work out the pros and cons and how it will affect them, their family, the environment, the economy etc.

The "Muppets" as you continue to amusingly refer to those less engaged in politics, are motivated by simple stark messages that they can identify with or paint pictures in their minds.

Right now, the threat of the country being overrun worries them more than the economy suffering... hence vote Out/Leave.

The remain camp need to up the ante to convince them.

 

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