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August 22 2019 11.03pm

The Brexit Thread

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View Spiderman's Profile Spiderman Flag Horsham 12 Jun 19 8.40pm Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Originally posted by Maine Eagle

You have to have a screw loose to think no deal is not a huge disaster in waiting. People who think a "WTO" exit is a good idea are 1 - in a big minority and 2 - in cloud cuckoo land.

For May the writing was on the wall long ago that a no deal exit would not get through parliament, and I honestly think she didnt want to be the PM that shot the country in the foot and triggered the worst recession in recent memory.

Trying to run a negotiation with a threat of a mutually unpleasant outcome, which everyone knows is highly unlikely, to try to force your own agenda is not so easy.

I am not saying Theresa May didnt f*** up virtually every major decision, but dont listen to Farage when he makes it sound like concluding a WA with the EU is a piece of piss and he could have done so much better. He has burned all bridges long ago in the EU. You cannot secure good outcomes with people you have existing bad relationships with, it just doesnt work that way.

Dangling no deal could be moot soon, if a cross party group of MPs get their way, as they will legally block any possible method of no deal (prorogue etc).

Many MPs are quite seriously afraid of a new tory leader trying to force no deal through, so they want to stop that at all costs. Keeping it on the table as a negotiation point is secondary to that concern.

[Link]

Presumably this is your opinion. If fact, please supply a link.

 

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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe 12 Jun 19 9.47pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Spiderman

Presumably this is your opinion. If fact, please supply a link.

The part about WTO, ie a hard Brexit, is correct. Polling at the time of the vote and various data since details the fragmentation of the leave vote vs the singularity of the remain vote.

Leave means many things to different people and represented many different reasons for voting out - one of which was hard (wto) the others a Norway or Canada style deal etc.

This puts the hard Brexit crowd in the minority against the rest of the reasons for voting either leave or remain.

This is old ground.

When I get a chance Iíll dig out a few references for you but we have been here before. Not everyone that voted leave wanted a hard Brexit, and it incenses me when people claim that it did. Itís even more infuriating when they go so far as to say it represented a majority within the leave vote, and for some reason talk like their reason for voting leave is the same as everyone else that also voted leave. Iíve said it before and Iíll say it again, itís utter bollocks.

 


said the rabid giraffe whilst brandishing his throbbing member of reason, and twas ever thus.

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View Jimenez's Profile Jimenez Flag SELHURSTPARKCHESTER,DA BRONX 12 Jun 19 9.56pm Send a Private Message to Jimenez Add Jimenez as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

The part about WTO, ie a hard Brexit, is correct. Polling at the time of the vote and various data since details the fragmentation of the leave vote vs the singularity of the remain vote.

Leave means many things to different people and represented many different reasons for voting out - one of which was hard (wto) the others a Norway or Canada style deal etc.

This puts the hard Brexit crowd in the minority against the rest of the reasons for voting either leave or remain.

This is old ground.

When I get a chance Iíll dig out a few references for you but we have been here before. Not everyone that voted leave wanted a hard Brexit, and it incenses me when people claim that it did. Itís even more infuriating when they go so far as to say it represented a majority within the leave vote, and for some reason talk like their reason for voting leave is the same as everyone else that also voted leave. Iíve said it before and Iíll say it again, itís utter bollocks.

What isn't though is that through bad or worse we voted 52% to 48% to leave

 


Pro USA & Israel

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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe 12 Jun 19 10.09pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Jimenez

What isn't though is that through bad or worse we voted 52% to 48% to leave

Christ. Cheers for the truism.

Not what weíre talking about though is it.

We are talking about the validity of the claim that the no deal split of the leave vote is a minority or not.

Not whether we should or should not leave.

 


said the rabid giraffe whilst brandishing his throbbing member of reason, and twas ever thus.

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View Midlands Eagle's Profile Midlands Eagle Flag 13 Jun 19 6.08am Send a Private Message to Midlands Eagle Add Midlands Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC


We are talking about the validity of the claim that the no deal split of the leave vote is a minority or not.

I wouldn't mind betting that a huge majority of people are pretty clueless about exactly what a no deal exit actually means. Quite a few luminaries imply that it would be the end of the world whilst others say just the opposite that it would be a huge opportunity for the UK

Rather than chucking out sound bites it would be nice to see or read a proper debate about the merits or otherwise of a no deal exit amongst not just MPs but also prominent industrialists who would explain exactly the pros and cons of this type of exit.

My own view is that coverage of no deal disadvantages has been heavily influenced by vested interests and every time a vested interest complains about what no deal will mean for him and his industry there is no-one to put a counter argument

 

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 13 Jun 19 8.49am Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

I wouldn't mind betting that a huge majority of people are pretty clueless about exactly what a no deal exit actually means. Quite a few luminaries imply that it would be the end of the world whilst others say just the opposite that it would be a huge opportunity for the UK

Rather than chucking out sound bites it would be nice to see or read a proper debate about the merits or otherwise of a no deal exit amongst not just MPs but also prominent industrialists who would explain exactly the pros and cons of this type of exit.

My own view is that coverage of no deal disadvantages has been heavily influenced by vested interests and every time a vested interest complains about what no deal will mean for him and his industry there is no-one to put a counter argument

Good post. A leaked civil service memo stating we're not ready for a no deal Brexit! How convenient it's leaked at this time.

I agree I have yet to hear a good debate on the pros and cons of a no deal Brexit. Those that oppose it appear not to want Brexit in any form so not really an unbiased view.

 


One more point

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 13 Jun 19 8.56am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Reminds me of 2010 after the election in Westminster square when several politicians didnít know the difference between the U.K. debt and the budget deficit.

 


COYP

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 13 Jun 19 9.21am Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Are we seeing movement at last.

Last night a Labour motion to rule out a no deal Brexit was defeated. If Mr Bercow follows his own rules that particular motion cannot be resubmitted during this parliament.

Supporting the government were the DUP and some Labour rebels. The number of Tory rebels who voted against it were down on previous similar votes.

This morning I heard a Remain Labour MP (his is in a Leave constituency) who voted with the government. Ignoring the political double talk I thought he voted against his own party to save his own skin.

Is reality starting to sent in. Normally there are around 20+ Tory rebels last night there were around 10.

So what happens now.

I am not saying that last night's defeat for the Remainers means it's over and we leave without a deal.
However I think this has done the new Tory PM a big favour. If the PM is seen to be reasonable in trying to re-negotiate a new deal and the EU is seen as inflexible then I do think that enough MPs will ultimately vote for a no deal.*

I assume that the EU will realise this and will not want to be seen as a villain so maybe they will also be reasonable.


*Labour's position if you can make sense of it is that they will negotiate a better deal. If the EU refuse to re-negotiate then that position is a hollow one.

Edited by Badger11 (13 Jun 2019 9.24am)

 


One more point

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View W12's Profile W12 Flag 13 Jun 19 10.00am Send a Private Message to W12 Add W12 as a friend

The debate for me is whether no deal is any more damaging than not getting *fully* out of the EU in a meaningful way (remain, BRINO, Canada, Norway, blah blah).

If you are like me and see globalism and mass migration as an existential threat to the UK and the wider west then I would take almost any level of economic pain to achieve this. It's just not about money for me.

Even though getting out of the EU is only a first step to resolving the fundamental issues in this country it's an essential one.

 

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View DanH's Profile DanH Flag SW2 13 Jun 19 10.36am Send a Private Message to DanH Add DanH as a friend

Originally posted by W12

The debate for me is whether no deal is any more damaging than not getting *fully* out of the EU in a meaningful way (remain, BRINO, Canada, Norway, blah blah).

If you are like me and see globalism and mass migration as an existential threat to the UK and the wider west then I would take almost any level of economic pain to achieve this. It's just not about money for me.

Even though getting out of the EU is only a first step to resolving the fundamental issues in this country it's an essential one.

You lot are really finding quite eloquent ways to be b*stards now aren't you. Really quite impressive.

 


Tw@tter:

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View Wisbech Eagle's Profile Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 13 Jun 19 10.54am Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by W12

The debate for me is whether no deal is any more damaging than not getting *fully* out of the EU in a meaningful way (remain, BRINO, Canada, Norway, blah blah).

If you are like me and see globalism and mass migration as an existential threat to the UK and the wider west then I would take almost any level of economic pain to achieve this. It's just not about money for me.

Even though getting out of the EU is only a first step to resolving the fundamental issues in this country it's an essential one.

Funny how people see things isn't it?

I see globalisation as an inevitable consequence of human and technological evolution and to attempt to stand against it as futile as King Canute commanding the tide.

If you face the inevitable then you must do your best to harness it's power to your advantage, and not retreat into a corner moaning about how things used to be better.

No-one wants uncontrolled immigration but some immigration, when currently our birthrate is falling and our life expectancy increasing, is essential. If circumstances change then we too must adapt and change.

 

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View DanH's Profile DanH Flag SW2 13 Jun 19 10.56am Send a Private Message to DanH Add DanH as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Funny how people see things isn't it?

I see globalisation as an inevitable consequence of human and technological evolution and to attempt to stand against it as futile as King Canute commanding the tide.

If you face the inevitable then you must do your best to harness it's power to your advantage, and not retreat into a corner moaning about how things used to be better.

No-one wants uncontrolled immigration but some immigration, when currently our birthrate is falling and our life expectancy increasing, is essential. If circumstances change then we too must adapt and change.

Exactly. Adapt or die. Or complain on the internet and die.

 


Tw@tter:

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