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February 7 2023 6.30pm

Relegation run in

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View YT's Profile YT Online Flag Oxford 29 Apr 18 7.25am Send a Private Message to YT Add YT as a friend

Originally posted by DualCitizenUSA

For the pedants (who include me, I remember Oldham) we need 2 points to be mathematically certain of staying up.

Swansea can get 42 and Southampton can get 41. But their game in hand is against each other, so one of them is going to drop at least 2 points. That would put at best (for them) one of them on maximum 39 points.

If Southampton beat Swansea, Swansea’s max is 39
If Swansea beat Southampton, Southampton’s max is 38
If they draw, Southampton’s max is 39.

So 40 points is mathematical safety.

Edited by DualCitizenUSA (29 Apr 2018 7.01am)

Edited by DualCitizenUSA (29 Apr 2018 7.16am)

Correct...but more likely 39 will be sufficient, allowing for goal difference?

Edited by YT (29 Apr 2018 7.26am)

 


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View Vim Fuego's Profile Vim Fuego Flag Haywards Heath 29 Apr 18 7.26am Send a Private Message to Vim Fuego Add Vim Fuego as a friend

Originally posted by daven

Mathematically we are not safe yet, but statistically we are. Having said that I see no reason why we cant finish with two more wins and not look down but up.
We have averaged over a point a game since Roy took over,if we had that over the first seven games then we would be looking at finishing with 49 points.
So 44 point finish is not out of the question.

How can you be statistically safe but mathematically not safe?

 

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View Vim Fuego's Profile Vim Fuego Flag Haywards Heath 29 Apr 18 7.26am Send a Private Message to Vim Fuego Add Vim Fuego as a friend

Originally posted by DualCitizenUSA

For the pedants (who include me, I remember Oldham) we need 2 points to be mathematically certain of staying up.

Swansea can get 42 and Southampton can get 41. But their game in hand is against each other, so one of them is going to drop at least 2 points. That would put at best (for them) one of them on maximum 39 points.

If Southampton beat Swansea, Swansea’s max is 39
If Swansea beat Southampton, Southampton’s max is 38
If they draw, Southampton’s max is 39.

So 40 points is mathematical safety.

Edited by DualCitizenUSA (29 Apr 2018 7.01am)

Edited by DualCitizenUSA (29 Apr 2018 7.16am)

Thanks for saving me the time to work it out.

 

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View DualCitizenUSA's Profile DualCitizenUSA Flag Portland, OR 29 Apr 18 7.27am Send a Private Message to DualCitizenUSA Add DualCitizenUSA as a friend

Originally posted by daven

Mathematically we are not safe yet, but statistically we are. Having said that I see no reason why we cant finish with two more wins and not look down but up.
We have averaged over a point a game since Roy took over,if we had that over the first seven games then we would be looking at finishing with 49 points.
So 44 point finish is not out of the question.

We’ve got 38 points in 32 games under Roy, and since the October international break (after 7 games/7 losses) it’s 38 points in 29 games. And since that break we’ve only lost twice to teams outside the top six (Newcastle and Everton away).

I agree with you. While I’m still haunted by 92-93 so won’t celebrate until we’re mathematically safe, the chances of us going down are minuscule. Our last two games in 92-93 were Man City and Arsenal (both away). Man City were decent that season and Arsenal won the League Cup/FA Cup double.

Stoke and West Brom don’t quite pose the same threat. So yes have a great chance of 11th or 12th.

 

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View Alexi_the_Eagle's Profile Alexi_the_Eagle Flag Haydock 29 Apr 18 7.29am Send a Private Message to Alexi_the_Eagle Add Alexi_the_Eagle as a friend

This post has been merged from a topic called 'We are Safe !!' by Midlands Eagle

Mathematically, we are safe. Swansea, Southampton, Stoke, and (to a lesser extent) Huddersfield, won’t win all their remaining games and overtake us. That, of which i’m confident.

Still, I’d love it if West Ham went down instead.

 


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View southnorwoodhill's Profile southnorwoodhill Flag 29 Apr 18 8.23am Send a Private Message to southnorwoodhill Add southnorwoodhill as a friend

Originally posted by Alexi_the_Eagle

Still, I’d love it if West Ham went down instead.

This would be the perfect result

 

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View CambridgeEagle's Profile CambridgeEagle Flag Sydenham 29 Apr 18 8.38am Send a Private Message to CambridgeEagle Add CambridgeEagle as a friend

Originally posted by Alexi_the_Eagle

This post has been merged from a topic called 'We are Safe !!' by Midlands Eagle

Mathematically, we are safe. Swansea, Southampton, Stoke, and (to a lesser extent) Huddersfield, won’t win all their remaining games and overtake us. That, of which i’m confident.

Still, I’d love it if West Ham went down instead.

I usually like having London sides in the prem as it's an easy trip, but I'm not going to their terrible ground again and it would be hilarious seeing them in the Championship playing there. Their fixtures aren't easy.

 

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View Bullhorn76's Profile Bullhorn76 Flag Darlington 29 Apr 18 8.52am Send a Private Message to Bullhorn76 Add Bullhorn76 as a friend

Meanwhile in the uddersfield forum ....http://downatthemac.proboards.com/thread/109351/1pt-needed-same , I don’t think link is working but basically they think a point will do it how does that work then when they’re on 35 now ?

Edited by Bullhorn76 (29 Apr 2018 8.54am)

 

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View bexleydave's Profile bexleydave Flag Barnehurst 29 Apr 18 9.01am Send a Private Message to bexleydave Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add bexleydave as a friend

Originally posted by Alexi_the_Eagle

This post has been merged from a topic called 'We are Safe !!' by Midlands Eagle

Mathematically, we are safe. Swansea, Southampton, Stoke, and (to a lesser extent) Huddersfield, won’t win all their remaining games and overtake us. That, of which i’m confident.

Still, I’d love it if West Ham went down instead.

No we are not; as explained above, currently mathematical safety is 40 points. However, it would require an extraordinary set of circumstances for us to be relegated now and so is extremely unlikely.

 


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View YT's Profile YT Online Flag Oxford 29 Apr 18 9.02am Send a Private Message to YT Add YT as a friend

Originally posted by Bullhorn76

Meanwhile in the uddersfield forum ....http://downatthemac.proboards.com/thread/109351/1pt-needed-same , I don’t think link is working but basically they think a point will do it how does that work then when they’re on 35 now ?

Edited by Bullhorn76 (29 Apr 2018 8.54am)

It won’t work. And furthermore they won’t overtake us. No chance on the evidence of MOTD and given their tough fixtures. Stoke and West Brom can’t overtake us, ergo we are safe.

Edited by YT (29 Apr 2018 9.03am)

 


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View steeleye20's Profile steeleye20 Flag Croydon 29 Apr 18 9.19am Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

I haven't seen it mentioned, apart from RH post-match interview, that our gpal average is better than the others, at -13.

So being level with us on 38 would not be enough in practice, Hudds etc. would need 39 points.

Hudds are -29 Swansea and Stoke not much better goal diff.

I expect, behind the scenes, RH and staff will have been scrutinising every nuance of the relegation battle, and feel that the others have an impracticable task.

It hasn't been dour because Palace have played good football not just all behind the ball and hoof.


 

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View steeleye20's Profile steeleye20 Flag Croydon 29 Apr 18 9.21am Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

Originally posted by steeleye20

I haven't seen it mentioned, apart from RH post-match interview, that our goal average is better than the others, at -13.

So being level with us on 38 would not be enough in practice, Hudds etc. would need 39 points.

Hudds are -29 Swansea and Stoke not much better goal diff.

I expect, behind the scenes, RH and staff will have been scrutinising every nuance of the relegation battle, and feel that the others have an impracticable task.

It hasn't been dour because Palace have played good football not just all behind the ball and hoof.


 

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