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June 5 2020 1.33pm

Post Corona World.

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag Chatham 03 May 20 3.58pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by Forest Hillbilly

The situation across the world has the potential for the following outcomes for many Governments.

* Increased surveillance, both on CCTV, monitored movements and internet usage.

* Huge amounts of personal data gathered.

* Harvesting of massive amounts of DNA data under the guise of 'testing'.

* Mass suppression of civil liberties

All under Governments guises of "We're protecting you. It's for your own good"


On the downside there will be mass unemployment and degradation of national economies.
Global movement will be massively restricted due to Government guidance and failing airlines/travel companies.

There will be massive financial 'winners' out of this,....but the world just got a big dose of George Orwell and environments are entering a dynamic state of change.

Edited by Forest Hillbilly (03 May 2020 3.23pm)

Bit like Venezuela and Cuba.
just perfect so you should be well pleased.

 

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 03 May 20 4.23pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by Forest Hillbilly

The situation across the world has the potential for the following outcomes for many Governments.

* Increased surveillance, both on CCTV, monitored movements and internet usage.

* Huge amounts of personal data gathered.

* Harvesting of massive amounts of DNA data under the guise of 'testing'.

* Mass suppression of civil liberties

All under Governments guises of "We're protecting you. It's for your own good"


On the downside there will be mass unemployment and degradation of national economies.
Global movement will be massively restricted due to Government guidance and failing airlines/travel companies.

There will be massive financial 'winners' out of this,....but the world just got a big dose of George Orwell and environments are entering a dynamic state of change.

Edited by Forest Hillbilly (03 May 2020 3.23pm)

I like the way you state this then say on the downside. LOL.

 


One more point

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View Forest Hillbilly's Profile Forest Hillbilly Flag in a hidey-hole 03 May 20 4.54pm Send a Private Message to Forest Hillbilly Add Forest Hillbilly as a friend

Obviously I was talking about the 'opportunities' from a government's perspective. (any national government, regardless of political orientation)

I think for the vast majority of working people, the world just got a whole lot 5hittier, and likely to get worse

Edited by Forest Hillbilly (03 May 2020 4.55pm)

 


,.,.,..,

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View the.universal's Profile the.universal 03 May 20 5.35pm Send a Private Message to the.universal Add the.universal as a friend

Originally posted by Forest Hillbilly

Obviously I was talking about the 'opportunities' from a government's perspective. (any national government, regardless of political orientation)

I think for the vast majority of working people, the world just got a whole lot 5hittier, and likely to get worse

Edited by Forest Hillbilly (03 May 2020 4.55pm)

Itís natural to speculate what will happen in future but overall things consistently get better over time. Coronavirus might put a dent in that but it wonít stop the ever present forward motion we have globally.

 


Vive le Roy!

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View Matov's Profile Matov Online Flag 04 May 20 1.42pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by the.universal

Itís natural to speculate what will happen in future but overall things consistently get better over time. Coronavirus might put a dent in that but it wonít stop the ever present forward motion we have globally.

Problem is how deep this dent will be?

Seeing all the noise being made, I do wonder if tensions with China will be ramped up to such a level that it leads to open armed conflict?

Perhaps a little hyperish but I can see a rather hawkish case to be made for looking to break China up or at least seeking to undermine its current regime. The Chinese play the long game and have accrued a lot of Western debt, along with playing silly games with currency and so on.

This might be an excuse to try and bring them down a peg or two. Yes, there are a lot of Chinese but the US is still the biggest dog militarily and it might be seen as a case of now or never.

Of course, all of this needs to be taken with a potentially huge pinch of salt and perhaps a result of my mind playing hysterical 'what if' game in terms of Real Politik but it is clear that globalisation, as it stands at the moment, China has enjoyed a lot of benefits. Covid potentially changes everything.

And a weakened West, with Chinese finance looking to take advantage, might allow a more gung-ho mentality to take root against it. Certainly, no polling benefits as things stand to by taking a Sinophile approach. In fact quite the opposite.

 

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards View Tom-the-eagle's Profile Tom-the-eagle Online Flag Croydon 04 May 20 1.50pm Send a Private Message to Tom-the-eagle Add Tom-the-eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Matov

Problem is how deep this dent will be?

Seeing all the noise being made, I do wonder if tensions with China will be ramped up to such a level that it leads to open armed conflict?

Perhaps a little hyperish but I can see a rather hawkish case to be made for looking to break China up or at least seeking to undermine its current regime. The Chinese play the long game and have accrued a lot of Western debt, along with playing silly games with currency and so on.

This might be an excuse to try and bring them down a peg or two. Yes, there are a lot of Chinese but the US is still the biggest dog militarily and it might be seen as a case of now or never.

Of course, all of this needs to be taken with a potentially huge pinch of salt and perhaps a result of my mind playing hysterical 'what if' game in terms of Real Politik but it is clear that globalisation, as it stands at the moment, China has enjoyed a lot of benefits. Covid potentially changes everything.

And a weakened West, with Chinese finance looking to take advantage, might allow a more gung-ho mentality to take root against it. Certainly, no polling benefits as things stand to by taking a Sinophile approach. In fact quite the opposite.

[Link]

Couldnít agree more. Be interesting to see how things play out with China

 


"It feels much better than it ever did, much more sensitive." John Wayne Bobbit

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View Matov's Profile Matov Online Flag 04 May 20 2.19pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by Tom-the-eagle

[Link]

Couldnít agree more. Be interesting to see how things play out with China


Massively so. And with Australia, and to a lesser extent New Zealand, the Anglo nations most at risk of direct impact should it all get a bit lively. Any conflict, at least militarily, is Southern Hemisphere focused.

Oddly enough I suspect the actual 'cold' part of the conflict might be played out in Africa. China has spent the last couple of decades buying up huge swathes of the best agricultural and mineral resources across the continent, showing no hesitancy in bribing any and everybody. Essentially a form of economic imperialism without any real sense of even a pretence at 'duty of care'.

And the Chinese are as racist as f***. And I don't mean in the casually ludicrous manner that the term gets bandied about in the West. I mean proper 'classical' racism that does not even acknowledge Africans as human.

Even seen the Guardian touch on the current spate of racist attacks and behaviour going on in China against the tiny number of Africans who live there and in any other news cycle, it would be worthy of all sorts of (quite justified) righteous anger. Because that is what actual racism looks and plays out like. Indefensible behaviour.

So expect a lot of ire to be aimed at China for how it behaves in Africa. Been deserved for a long while.

 

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 07 May 20 8.20am Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

I am going to try and predict the fallout once we are over this crisis this is a punt nothing else as I doubt anyone can say with any certainty.:

- Working from home part time / full time will become the norm for millions.
- Companies with large office staff will downsize their premises or abandon plans for office expansion.
- Corporate real estate will take a big hit especially Canary Wharf.
- Mental health issues will rise with people working from home.
- Retail and hospitality in central London and other big cities will take a big hit as millions no longer commute to work on a daily basis and therefore do not spend money in that location.
- Conversely retail and hospitality locally may benefit in areas where people are working from home. I live in Beckenham I would guess the majority of adults here have office jobs if they all work from home that means a lot more people around during the day time so meeting up for a coffee at lunchtime.
- Rush hour on public transport maybe different less people but more social distancing.
- Train and bus fares to go up.
- Do we need HS2 if we are all working from home?
- Air travel will become more complicated and expensive.
- Holidaying in the UK or close by will become more popular. My brother sells canal boats and business is doing well I suspect caravan sales and holiday homes will also benefit.
- The world economy will bump along for the next 5 years as countries deal with crippling debt.
- The UK will largely become a cashless society.
- I have noticed far more pensioners embracing technology using contactless cards, video conferencing, self service tills, smart phones etc.
- UK banks will massively increase branch closures. Post office counters will go to the wall.
- The EU will be forced into making internal reforms it may not like just to survive. Some countries may abandon the euro or even leave the EU. The industrial northern European countries will face calls for an inner circle or breakaway EU ditching the southern and eastern countries.
- Entertainment and professional sport will undergo a massive shake up. Both will face a huge financial crisis and will have to cut back accordingly. The PL will try and distance itself from the EFL to save money. Many clubs in the EFL will go bust or cut salaries massively. The good times for average football players are over.
- Parliament will finally embrace new technology and family friendly working practices.
- Greta will partially get her way if more people work from home less commuting less pollution.

That's all for the moment I am sure there will be plenty of things good or bad that no one will predict.


Edited by Badger11 (07 May 2020 8.24am)

 


One more point

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View Matov's Profile Matov Online Flag 07 May 20 8.39am Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by Badger11


- The EU will be forced into making internal reforms it may not like just to survive. Some countries may abandon the euro or even leave the EU. The industrial northern European countries will face calls for an inner circle or breakaway EU ditching the southern and eastern countries.


Edited by Badger11 (07 May 2020 8.24am)


Firstly, enjoyed reading the predictions. Lot of food for thought in those.

But as to the EU, I expect to see a doubling down. Essentially the EU is inextricably linked to the Euro especially now with our departure given the size of our economy and us not involved.

With the catch 22 due to loom large. The Northern European nations need more than ever to export goods in huge numbers. And they need to do that in a currency that makes that relatively cheap when compared to what the costs would be if they had retained their previous one.

And the way you keep that currency undervalued? Making sure the southern euro nations remain poor.

They are not going to relinquish that without a huge fight. If Italy, for example, decides to leave the EU then they will invariably have to leave the Euro. And if they do that then the whole rotten edifice will implode.

I expect the EU to double down in terms of pushing for even more integration. Resistance will come from Holland and Germany, both of whom benefit immensely from the current misbalance of power.

The EU is simply incapable of reform. Has no interest in it nor the institutional ability to be flexible enough.


Edited by Matov (07 May 2020 8.41am)

 

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 07 May 20 9.21am Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by Matov


Firstly, enjoyed reading the predictions. Lot of food for thought in those.

But as to the EU, I expect to see a doubling down. Essentially the EU is inextricably linked to the Euro especially now with our departure given the size of our economy and us not involved.

With the catch 22 due to loom large. The Northern European nations need more than ever to export goods in huge numbers. And they need to do that in a currency that makes that relatively cheap when compared to what the costs would be if they had retained their previous one.

And the way you keep that currency undervalued? Making sure the southern euro nations remain poor.

They are not going to relinquish that without a huge fight. If Italy, for example, decides to leave the EU then they will invariably have to leave the Euro. And if they do that then the whole rotten edifice will implode.

I expect the EU to double down in terms of pushing for even more integration. Resistance will come from Holland and Germany, both of whom benefit immensely from the current misbalance of power.

The EU is simply incapable of reform. Has no interest in it nor the institutional ability to be flexible enough.


Edited by Matov (07 May 2020 8.41am)

I think this is the most likeliest outcome but it will depend will their voters see the EU as a liferaft ot the Titanic.

 


One more point

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View DanH's Profile DanH Online Flag SW2 07 May 20 9.21am Send a Private Message to DanH Add DanH as a friend

Originally posted by Badger11

I am going to try and predict the fallout once we are over this crisis this is a punt nothing else as I doubt anyone can say with any certainty.:

- Working from home part time / full time will become the norm for millions.
- Companies with large office staff will downsize their premises or abandon plans for office expansion.
- Corporate real estate will take a big hit especially Canary Wharf.
- Mental health issues will rise with people working from home.
- Retail and hospitality in central London and other big cities will take a big hit as millions no longer commute to work on a daily basis and therefore do not spend money in that location.
- Conversely retail and hospitality locally may benefit in areas where people are working from home. I live in Beckenham I would guess the majority of adults here have office jobs if they all work from home that means a lot more people around during the day time so meeting up for a coffee at lunchtime.
- Rush hour on public transport maybe different less people but more social distancing.
- Train and bus fares to go up.
- Do we need HS2 if we are all working from home?
- Air travel will become more complicated and expensive.
- Holidaying in the UK or close by will become more popular. My brother sells canal boats and business is doing well I suspect caravan sales and holiday homes will also benefit.
- The world economy will bump along for the next 5 years as countries deal with crippling debt.
- The UK will largely become a cashless society.
- I have noticed far more pensioners embracing technology using contactless cards, video conferencing, self service tills, smart phones etc.
- UK banks will massively increase branch closures. Post office counters will go to the wall.
- The EU will be forced into making internal reforms it may not like just to survive. Some countries may abandon the euro or even leave the EU. The industrial northern European countries will face calls for an inner circle or breakaway EU ditching the southern and eastern countries.
- Entertainment and professional sport will undergo a massive shake up. Both will face a huge financial crisis and will have to cut back accordingly. The PL will try and distance itself from the EFL to save money. Many clubs in the EFL will go bust or cut salaries massively. The good times for average football players are over.
- Parliament will finally embrace new technology and family friendly working practices.
- Greta will partially get her way if more people work from home less commuting less pollution.

That's all for the moment I am sure there will be plenty of things good or bad that no one will predict.


Edited by Badger11 (07 May 2020 8.24am)

I can see a lot of the above happening. Will be fascinating to see how what happens at the micro level with the change in behaviours affects the wider macro economy. Can see a huge boost for local economies for a lot of the reasons that you have stated above.

 


Tw@tter:

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