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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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Mapletree Flag Croydon 05 Apr 19 11.56am

Originally posted by Matov

A swing from Labour to the Conservatives?

Edited by Matov (05 Apr 2019 11.11am)

Wouldn't that happen automatically with the low turnout?

 

Badger11 Flag Beckenham 05 Apr 19 12.10pm

Originally posted by Matov

Interesting to see the spin being put on that by-election. A swing from Labour to the Conservatives? With UKIP doubling their %.

The last bit is not a surprise but the first?

However, I fear it is all irrelevant and the Brexit fix is becoming increasingly clear, at least to my paranoid mind.

One thing I never got until now was why May ever bought her WA back to the table. The backstop meant it was doomed to failure. There is no way the DUP and the ERG* could ever support it. A no-go from day 1. I get why the EU insisted on it, because it allows them to effectively stop us making outside trade deals to the extent where we never truly leave. And that is the crux of this. They have to protect their own inefficient industry, with us as a cash cow by way of us proles being stuck with high prices whilst the banking elites get to fill their pockets.

So May knows it will not pass.

But she has to try hence the farce of the last couple of months.

Leaving her with no other choice than reaching out to Labour. To Corbyn, who I genuninely believe is a true leaver, who had his hands tied by his own party over a second referendum which May reluctantly agrees to with an exaggerated sigh.

Meaning that when this eventually becomes reality, and Remain wins the day, the blame with be laid at his door. May will go, a supposed 'Leaver' will replace her and spout off a load of BS about how the country needs time to heal before we can revisit the issue of actually leaving once again.

And then the status quo is back.

There is a sort of Machiavellian wonder to it all.

Question is, what then? LOL. Hell of a question.

Oh and the '*' bit concerning the ERG. I suspect that they worked out much of this a few weeks ago, hence why many started switching support, reasoning that the best way to scupper May's plan was to actually support her WA. Not sure I agree but now it makes at least a little sense.

Naturally, all of the above might be the rantings of a mad man (and this Brexit s*** does have a way of churning the old grey matter up, I will concede) but ever since the details of Mays proposed WA became clear it never made the slightest bit of sense because it was never going to happen in a million years. Now though I am convinced that it was never intended to do so.

Edited by Matov (05 Apr 2019 11.11am)

Matov your posts are getting better and better.

I hope your are wrong but I am now wondering if the conspiracy theorists deep state mob may have a point.

 


One more point

Pussay Patrol Flag 05 Apr 19 12.15pm

Originally posted by Teddy Eagle

Interesting response. First you dispute the figures then dismiss them anyway.

Just calling your bluff, always good to have the facts

 


Paua oouaarancì Irà chiyeah Ishé galé ma ba oo ah

johnno42000 Flag 05 Apr 19 12.16pm

I'm amazed anyone voted in Newport, not just after seeing that lot in parliament being unable to decide anything, but also because the terrible weather yesterday. Snow, sleet, hail, thunder, lightning, rain (that Noah would be shocked at), we had the lot. Even for us it was bad.

Edited by johnno42000 (05 Apr 2019 12.16pm)

 


'Lies to the masses as are like fly's to mollasses...they want more and more and more'

Teddy Eagle Flag 05 Apr 19 12.17pm

Originally posted by Pussay Patrol

Just calling your bluff, always good to have the facts

I’m fine with that but it wasn’t a bluff and you still dismissed the figures.

 

Matov Flag 05 Apr 19 1.02pm

Originally posted by Mapletree

Wouldn't that happen automatically with the low turnout?


Not really. A mid term Government in what should be a Labour safe seat? By-elections are protest votes. I appreciate that we all spin things but you should not have seen any swing to the Tories at all.


 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Matov Flag 05 Apr 19 1.52pm

Originally posted by Badger11

Matov your posts are getting better and better.

I hope your are wrong but I am now wondering if the conspiracy theorists deep state mob may have a point.

Made me smile given that I am seriously doubting my own sanity at the moment. But yes, the 'Deep State' narrative has been troubling me of late because I have always tended towards the history as cock-up rather than conspiracy theory but this issue of the back-stop has troubled me from the beginning.

I remember watching footage of the Parlimentary Brexit committe early on in the process in which they had the then Brexit Minister, David Davies, under scrutiny with this issue of the Irish border under the spotlight. And he was absolutely convincing that it all boiled down to an issue around the collection of VAT on goods entering the UK and then crossing over into Ireland. Purely a technical issue that was solvable if the political will was there.

There was already a freedom of movement agreement in place, pre-dating the EU, with Southern Ireland and less than half of 1% of the UK's export cross at that border. Any hardening of it impacts directly on Ireland in a vastly disproportionate way to the UK and there was zero pressure on us to do anything other than keep it flowing.

And the notion of there being no border checks as things stands is utter nonsense. Both sides are policed with customs patrols. Just look up the issue of heating oil being bought in the north and taken to the south. The Irish customs are all over that. And once again, the UK are far more easy going than the Republic.

Yet May comes back with that backstop. Knowing that the DUP would never support it along with a significant amount of her own back benchers. It was a no-go from day 1.

So the only conclusion is that she never wanted it to pass.

And she got her way.

Perhaps I have lost the plot. Perhaps I need to don a tin-foil hat and write letters in green ink. But I just cannot arrive at any other conclusion given the evidence on the table in open view.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Maine Eagle Flag USA 05 Apr 19 2.00pm

Originally posted by becky

Or, if the case is upheld in the High Court that the extension was not lawful, and we automatically left by default on 29th March, since anything since that date cannot be applied retrospectively.

That would be something.

Is this being reviewed by some high court judge?

As May just asked to delay to June 30, and now apparently is ok with fighting euro elections, I don’t think the powers that be are seriously considering that we already left the EU.

 


Trump lost. Badly. Hahahahahahaha.

Maine Eagle Flag USA 05 Apr 19 2.12pm

Originally posted by Matov

Interesting to see the spin being put on that by-election. A swing from Labour to the Conservatives? With UKIP doubling their %.

The last bit is not a surprise but the first?

However, I fear it is all irrelevant and the Brexit fix is becoming increasingly clear, at least to my paranoid mind.

One thing I never got until now was why May ever bought her WA back to the table. The backstop meant it was doomed to failure. There is no way the DUP and the ERG* could ever support it. A no-go from day 1. I get why the EU insisted on it, because it allows them to effectively stop us making outside trade deals to the extent where we never truly leave. And that is the crux of this. They have to protect their own inefficient industry, with us as a cash cow by way of us proles being stuck with high prices whilst the banking elites get to fill their pockets.

So May knows it will not pass.

But she has to try hence the farce of the last couple of months.

Leaving her with no other choice than reaching out to Labour. To Corbyn, who I genuninely believe is a true leaver, who had his hands tied by his own party over a second referendum which May reluctantly agrees to with an exaggerated sigh.

Meaning that when this eventually becomes reality, and Remain wins the day, the blame with be laid at his door. May will go, a supposed 'Leaver' will replace her and spout off a load of BS about how the country needs time to heal before we can revisit the issue of actually leaving once again.

And then the status quo is back.

There is a sort of Machiavellian wonder to it all.

Question is, what then? LOL. Hell of a question.

Oh and the '*' bit concerning the ERG. I suspect that they worked out much of this a few weeks ago, hence why many started switching support, reasoning that the best way to scupper May's plan was to actually support her WA. Not sure I agree but now it makes at least a little sense.

Naturally, all of the above might be the rantings of a mad man (and this Brexit s*** does have a way of churning the old grey matter up, I will concede) but ever since the details of Mays proposed WA became clear it never made the slightest bit of sense because it was never going to happen in a million years. Now though I am convinced that it was never intended to do so.

Edited by Matov (05 Apr 2019 11.11am)

You give May too much credit. Not sure she is shrewd or savvy enough for this Machiavellian scheme. My thoughts that she is a double agent, on a snape vibe, are more considered in jest than reality.

When she announced the great idea of tea with Jezza she said it would have to be tied to her deal. Even then, and I assume now, she believes it could pass.

Politics is brinkmanship at its most extreme. Did you see Drax try to absolve himself of guilt for voting aye on MV3 with a point of order the next morning? He felt so guilty and compromised that he apologizes the next morning, yet he was ok voting for it the night before.

Her core strategy since day 1 was threaten a no deal, I think she might have thought the DUP and enough non tories would back her WA to avoid that, but it didn’t work out that way.

So now she is asking for June 30, and the media expect a counter offer of 1 year, but flexible enough to end early if there is an agreement on something.

She also now states in her letter of today that we would be prepared to fight euro elections.

2 things she vowed would never happen. She has really built a lot of bipartisan trust and credibility.......

I just think she is stubborn, a poor leader, and a weak and dimwitted negotiator.

 


Trump lost. Badly. Hahahahahahaha.

Pussay Patrol Flag 05 Apr 19 2.13pm

Imagine what £66bn could do for our NHS

[Link]

 


Paua oouaarancì Irà chiyeah Ishé galé ma ba oo ah

becky Flag over the moon 05 Apr 19 2.19pm

Originally posted by Maine Eagle

That would be something.

Is this being reviewed by some high court judge?

As May just asked to delay to June 30, and now apparently is ok with fighting euro elections, I don’t think the powers that be are seriously considering that we already left the EU.

The claim has been made, and a case has been sent to the High Court with a request for a speedy hearing on the matter. A former Appeal Court Judge has agreed that there is a case to be made

[Link]

 


A stairway to Heaven and a Highway to Hell give some indication of expected traffic numbers

Maine Eagle Flag USA 05 Apr 19 2.22pm

Originally posted by Pussay Patrol

Imagine what £66bn could do for our NHS

[Link]

Even if it’s only half of that, it’s still pretty sobering stuff.

One thing which stymies investment, expansion and growth, is uncertainty.

 


Trump lost. Badly. Hahahahahahaha.

Matov Flag 05 Apr 19 2.28pm

Originally posted by Maine Eagle

You give May too much credit. Not sure she is shrewd or savvy enough for this Machiavellian scheme. My thoughts that she is a double agent, on a snape vibe, are more considered in jest than reality.

When she announced the great idea of tea with Jezza she said it would have to be tied to her deal. Even then, and I assume now, she believes it could pass.

Politics is brinkmanship at its most extreme. Did you see Drax try to absolve himself of guilt for voting aye on MV3 with a point of order the next morning? He felt so guilty and compromised that he apologizes the next morning, yet he was ok voting for it the night before.

Her core strategy since day 1 was threaten a no deal, I think she might have thought the DUP and enough non tories would back her WA to avoid that, but it didn’t work out that way.

So now she is asking for June 30, and the media expect a counter offer of 1 year, but flexible enough to end early if there is an agreement on something.

She also now states in her letter of today that we would be prepared to fight euro elections.

2 things she vowed would never happen. She has really built a lot of bipartisan trust and credibility.......

I just think she is stubborn, a poor leader, and a weak and dimwitted negotiator.

I want to believe all of what you claim about May, I really do. But you do not achieve high political office in any country by being as stupid as you claim she is.

It simply does not wash. Personally, and here I accept I am right into the conspiracy s***, I suspect her husband has played a huge role in all of this because they are in many ways a real 'power' couple. I accept that I am socially conservative with old fashioned views but I inherently distrust the motives of any politician who does not have children. I know that can be pulled to pieces in all sorts of ways but that is my gut instinct and nothing will ever change that.

May is shrewd, with an incredibly thick skin (by all political conventions she should have gone even though she won the leadership challenge because of the amount of votes cast against her) and she does not come back to us with a deal that she knows is going to fail without having a bloody good reason.

The DUP alone are reason it is a non-starter. And the DUP are the real deal when it comes to politics. This is not a game for them and I am sure they all still have to check underneath their cars for bombs along with knowing both victims and perpetrators of terrorist killings. They are a cut above your usual self serving political types we get in the UK. I am not defending them, and have never understood all that sectarian nonsense but they don't back down easily. She would have known that.

Yes, some of the ERG did back it but I suspect they worked out what was happening. Again, these are not silly people (nobody who makes it Parliament should ever be underestimated) and I believe worked it out too late.

Revoking A50 was never a goer. They need a second referendum to offer them at least a veneer of democratic accountability. May gets the Labour Party to give her that, with the backlash shared equally between them both.

In someways it deserves kudos for the cunning.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

becky Flag over the moon 05 Apr 19 2.31pm

Originally posted by Matov

I want to believe all of what you claim about May, I really do. But you do not achieve high political office in any country by being as stupid as you claim she is.

It simply does not wash. Personally, and here I accept I am right into the conspiracy s***, I suspect her husband has played a huge role in all of this because they are in many ways a real 'power' couple. I accept that I am socially conservative with old fashioned views but I inherently distrust the motives of any politician who does not have children. I know that can be pulled to pieces in all sorts of ways but that is my gut instinct and nothing will ever change that.

May is shrewd, with an incredibly thick skin (by all political conventions she should have gone even though she won the leadership challenge because of the amount of votes cast against her) and she does not come back to us with a deal that she knows is going to fail without having a bloody good reason.

The DUP alone are reason it is a non-starter. And the DUP are the real deal when it comes to politics. This is not a game for them and I am sure they all still have to check underneath their cars for bombs along with knowing both victims and perpetrators of terrorist killings. They are a cut above your usual self serving political types we get in the UK. I am not defending them, and have never understood all that sectarian nonsense but they don't back down easily. She would have known that.

Yes, some of the ERG did back it but I suspect they worked out what was happening. Again, these are not silly people (nobody who makes it Parliament should ever be underestimated) and I believe worked it out too late.

Revoking A50 was never a goer. They need a second referendum to offer them at least a veneer of democratic accountability. May gets the Labour Party to give her that, with the backlash shared equally between them both.

In someways it deserves kudos for the cunning.

May is childless through natural causes not choice.

 


A stairway to Heaven and a Highway to Hell give some indication of expected traffic numbers

Penge Eagle Flag Beckenham 05 Apr 19 2.35pm

Originally posted by Pussay Patrol

Imagine what £66bn could do for our NHS

[Link]

If we actually left, then we'd save £39bn on the Brexit divorce bill immediately. Then you have no more annual contributions to the EU going forward – which is £9bn net. That pays for a lot of UNITED KINGDOM public services you keep going on about.

Edited by Penge Eagle (05 Apr 2019 2.35pm)

 

Pussay Patrol Flag 05 Apr 19 2.37pm

Originally posted by Maine Eagle

Even if it’s only half of that, it’s still pretty sobering stuff.

One thing which stymies investment, expansion and growth, is uncertainty.

Exactly, 350m a week for the NHS and 200m left over. The folly of Brexit laid bare.

Post Brexit it'll be an even bigger number which I reckon will equate to another decade of austerity

 


Paua oouaarancì Irà chiyeah Ishé galé ma ba oo ah

Penge Eagle Flag Beckenham 05 Apr 19 2.40pm

Originally posted by Pussay Patrol

Exactly, 350m a week for the NHS and 200m left over. The folly of Brexit laid bare.

Post Brexit it'll be an even bigger number which I reckon will equate to another decade of austerity

It depends what the government of the day decides to do with the money. It could be Labour! And that's the whole point of Brexit. The UK decides how to spend our taxes – not Brussels.

 

Maine Eagle Flag USA 05 Apr 19 2.43pm

Originally posted by Matov

I want to believe all of what you claim about May, I really do. But you do not achieve high political office in any country by being as stupid as you claim she is.

It simply does not wash. Personally, and here I accept I am right into the conspiracy s***, I suspect her husband has played a huge role in all of this because they are in many ways a real 'power' couple. I accept that I am socially conservative with old fashioned views but I inherently distrust the motives of any politician who does not have children. I know that can be pulled to pieces in all sorts of ways but that is my gut instinct and nothing will ever change that.

May is shrewd, with an incredibly thick skin (by all political conventions she should have gone even though she won the leadership challenge because of the amount of votes cast against her) and she does not come back to us with a deal that she knows is going to fail without having a bloody good reason.

The DUP alone are reason it is a non-starter. And the DUP are the real deal when it comes to politics. This is not a game for them and I am sure they all still have to check underneath their cars for bombs along with knowing both victims and perpetrators of terrorist killings. They are a cut above your usual self serving political types we get in the UK. I am not defending them, and have never understood all that sectarian nonsense but they don't back down easily. She would have known that.

Yes, some of the ERG did back it but I suspect they worked out what was happening. Again, these are not silly people (nobody who makes it Parliament should ever be underestimated) and I believe worked it out too late.

Revoking A50 was never a goer. They need a second referendum to offer them at least a veneer of democratic accountability. May gets the Labour Party to give her that, with the backlash shared equally between them both.

In someways it deserves kudos for the cunning.

Some fair points but bear in mind she became PM at a fairly unique time with some fairly unique characters in the mix. This was not your average leader election.

That brings me on to your point that you have to be a smart cookie to be a politician.....

Boris Johnson, whilst not a village idiot, is not exactly Einstein.

There are a lot of MPs and there are definitely some turkeys in there.

As for not being able to achieve high political office in ANY country unless you are not as thick as 2 short planks, I am not so sure about that one either

 


Trump lost. Badly. Hahahahahahaha.

Stirlingsays Flag 05 Apr 19 3.05pm

Originally posted by Maine Eagle

Even if it’s only half of that, it’s still pretty sobering stuff.

One thing which stymies investment, expansion and growth, is uncertainty.


So why have we been doing well economically compared to many in the EU?

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Maine Eagle Flag USA 05 Apr 19 3.09pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays


So why have we been doing well economically compared to many in the EU?

I am not comparing us to anyone.

I am just saying that if the reporting is true, and brexit uncertainty has cost us 550 million quid a week (a catchy line to put on a bus??) ......then I could understand that, as uncertainty is kryptonite to investment.

 


Trump lost. Badly. Hahahahahahaha.

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