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Badger11 Beckenham 06 Aug 19 6.09pm
Originally posted by Matov The backstop is there to keep the UK as a captive market for EU goods. And especially Ireland. All you need to understand is that 85% of Southern Irelands exports cross that border compared to less than 0.5% of ours. And the UK have categorically stated that they will not impose a hard border and are even willing to waive any tarrifs that might be due. The issue is purely political and designed solely to retain the UK as the customer for a variety of EU companies. As I have said on many occasions I get why the EU are so keen. What I cannot, for the life of me, fathom is why May and her cohorts were so willing to acquiesce. Makes no sense from a British POV because you cannot allow a foreign power to have a veto over who you do or do not trade with. The border in economic terms is nothing to us. A blip. Even with the 'hardest' of borders in place there still would be no passports required because of the Common Travel Area agreement which was in place long before the EU was a twinkle in some old Europeans eye. This is solely about the EU wanting to cripple us from making new trade deals which will bring in cheaper goods for us and mean we buy less of their over-priced produce. Nothing more, nothing less. Good post. I wonder how exporters in the EU feel about this. publicly they will support the EU stance but privately? Germany industry calls the UK Treasure Island because the make so much money from us, if that goes down I am sure they will be asking questions. My guess is that after we leave and the Irish border is shown as not being a major problem the EU will come to the table. I don't want to screw the EU into the ground just a fair free trade deal where each side gets most of what they want. One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 06 Aug 19 6.09pm

Originally posted by Matov

The backstop is there to keep the UK as a captive market for EU goods. And especially Ireland.

All you need to understand is that 85% of Southern Irelands exports cross that border compared to less than 0.5% of ours. And the UK have categorically stated that they will not impose a hard border and are even willing to waive any tarrifs that might be due.

The issue is purely political and designed solely to retain the UK as the customer for a variety of EU companies.

As I have said on many occasions I get why the EU are so keen. What I cannot, for the life of me, fathom is why May and her cohorts were so willing to acquiesce. Makes no sense from a British POV because you cannot allow a foreign power to have a veto over who you do or do not trade with. The border in economic terms is nothing to us. A blip. Even with the 'hardest' of borders in place there still would be no passports required because of the Common Travel Area agreement which was in place long before the EU was a twinkle in some old Europeans eye.

This is solely about the EU wanting to cripple us from making new trade deals which will bring in cheaper goods for us and mean we buy less of their over-priced produce.

Nothing more, nothing less.

Good post. I wonder how exporters in the EU feel about this. publicly they will support the EU stance but privately? Germany industry calls the UK Treasure Island because the make so much money from us, if that goes down I am sure they will be asking questions.

My guess is that after we leave and the Irish border is shown as not being a major problem the EU will come to the table.

I don't want to screw the EU into the ground just a fair free trade deal where each side gets most of what they want.

One more point

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Matov 06 Aug 19 8.14pm
Originally posted by Badger11 I don't want to screw the EU into the ground just a fair free trade deal where each side gets most of what they want. You need to understand that for sections of the EU hierarchy Brexit represents a far bigger problem than just trade. I have always expressed a rather heretical view in Leaver circles that actually it would probably be in the UK's interest to continue to pay the EU 'x' amount every year just to maintain the status quo in terms of borders and so on, with of course us being free to do our own trade deals. The reality is that the UK is a wealthy nation, with a healthy commercial culture and is actually rather well positioned, for a variety of factors, to benefit more and more from increasing globalisation. You could even make an argument that perhaps we could still look to protect Irish agricultural imports into the UK market because once again, we do owe Ireland a duty of care of a sorts. And helping others build up their infrastructure and so on has a genuine long term benefit for the UK, even once we have left the EU but for those at the heart of the EU project, our departure represents a serious crisis of confidence. We leave and thrive and it throws a complete spanner into the wider EU project because others might want to join us. Hence the EU simply cannot allow us to depart without kicking up a huge stink. It needs to punish us and so far, has been aided and abetted in that by our Remainer political establishment. Absolute treachery by any measure in my opinion and May and her circle will be judged by history accordingly. Not only the worst PM ever but the one who actually sort to betray this country. Logic would dictate a trade deal and one that is easily done. But this is the EU. An institution that ups sticks every month to spend 4 days in Strasbourg for no logical reason. Absolute insanity that by itself tells you all you need to know about the dysfunction at the heart of it. Edited by Matov (06 Aug 2019 8.15pm) "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

06 Aug 19 8.14pm

Originally posted by Badger11

I don't want to screw the EU into the ground just a fair free trade deal where each side gets most of what they want.

You need to understand that for sections of the EU hierarchy Brexit represents a far bigger problem than just trade.

I have always expressed a rather heretical view in Leaver circles that actually it would probably be in the UK's interest to continue to pay the EU 'x' amount every year just to maintain the status quo in terms of borders and so on, with of course us being free to do our own trade deals. The reality is that the UK is a wealthy nation, with a healthy commercial culture and is actually rather well positioned, for a variety of factors, to benefit more and more from increasing globalisation.

You could even make an argument that perhaps we could still look to protect Irish agricultural imports into the UK market because once again, we do owe Ireland a duty of care of a sorts. And helping others build up their infrastructure and so on has a genuine long term benefit for the UK, even once we have left the EU but for those at the heart of the EU project, our departure represents a serious crisis of confidence. We leave and thrive and it throws a complete spanner into the wider EU project because others might want to join us.

Hence the EU simply cannot allow us to depart without kicking up a huge stink. It needs to punish us and so far, has been aided and abetted in that by our Remainer political establishment. Absolute treachery by any measure in my opinion and May and her circle will be judged by history accordingly. Not only the worst PM ever but the one who actually sort to betray this country.

Logic would dictate a trade deal and one that is easily done. But this is the EU. An institution that ups sticks every month to spend 4 days in Strasbourg for no logical reason. Absolute insanity that by itself tells you all you need to know about the dysfunction at the heart of it.

Edited by Matov (06 Aug 2019 8.15pm)

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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Badger11 Beckenham 06 Aug 19 9.10pm
Originally posted by Matov You need to understand that for sections of the EU hierarchy Brexit represents a far bigger problem than just trade. I have always expressed a rather heretical view in Leaver circles that actually it would probably be in the UK's interest to continue to pay the EU 'x' amount every year just to maintain the status quo in terms of borders and so on, with of course us being free to do our own trade deals. The reality is that the UK is a wealthy nation, with a healthy commercial culture and is actually rather well positioned, for a variety of factors, to benefit more and more from increasing globalisation. You could even make an argument that perhaps we could still look to protect Irish agricultural imports into the UK market because once again, we do owe Ireland a duty of care of a sorts. And helping others build up their infrastructure and so on has a genuine long term benefit for the UK, even once we have left the EU but for those at the heart of the EU project, our departure represents a serious crisis of confidence. We leave and thrive and it throws a complete spanner into the wider EU project because others might want to join us. Hence the EU simply cannot allow us to depart without kicking up a huge stink. It needs to punish us and so far, has been aided and abetted in that by our Remainer political establishment. Absolute treachery by any measure in my opinion and May and her circle will be judged by history accordingly. Not only the worst PM ever but the one who actually sort to betray this country. Logic would dictate a trade deal and one that is easily done. But this is the EU. An institution that ups sticks every month to spend 4 days in Strasbourg for no logical reason. Absolute insanity that by itself tells you all you need to know about the dysfunction at the heart of it. Edited by Matov (06 Aug 2019 8.15pm) In principle I agree they want money for their EU projects and we want access to the single market. This is the type of negotiation we should be having. Leaving the politics to one side we both have vested interests we want to protect so reasonable people should be able to make a reasonable deal. I am not an anti EU fanatic so if money is the key then as long as it is a reasonable amount it is an idea worth exploring. One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 06 Aug 19 9.10pm

Originally posted by Matov

You need to understand that for sections of the EU hierarchy Brexit represents a far bigger problem than just trade.

Edited by Matov (06 Aug 2019 8.15pm)

In principle I agree they want money for their EU projects and we want access to the single market.

This is the type of negotiation we should be having. Leaving the politics to one side we both have vested interests we want to protect so reasonable people should be able to make a reasonable deal. I am not an anti EU fanatic so if money is the key then as long as it is a reasonable amount it is an idea worth exploring.

One more point

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Matov 06 Aug 19 9.42pm
Originally posted by Badger11 In principle I agree they want money for their EU projects and we want access to the single market. This is the type of negotiation we should be having. Leaving the politics to one side we both have vested interests we want to protect so reasonable people should be able to make a reasonable deal. I am not an anti EU fanatic so if money is the key then as long as it is a reasonable amount it is an idea worth exploring. Problem is that the EU is a political project. You only need to look at the single currency and the inclusion of Greece in the first place to understand what is driving the entire madness. The EU is a wounded Animal. I know the Remainer narrative is that it is a unified body but the truth is that it is bleeding from almost every orifice and has huge contradictions at its very heart, any one of which could cause it to implode. I can only comment on the Croatian position but from what I hear, most Croatians loathe the EU but, and this is the part that most Brits fail to comprehend, have such little faith in their own national Government given the rampant corruption that even a place as venal and self-serving as Brussels appears a better option than their own domestic politicians. And I suspect a similar notion is prevalent in many of smaller EU nations. Ireland is a perfect example. From its POV the EU gave it a proper road network and has contributed massively to its success. Whereas its own politicians effectively screwed it over, time and time again and bailed out its banks by lumbering its population with a horrendous debt. That is the EU's strength in that millions deem it less horrendous than their own political leaders. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

06 Aug 19 9.42pm

Originally posted by Badger11

In principle I agree they want money for their EU projects and we want access to the single market.

Problem is that the EU is a political project. You only need to look at the single currency and the inclusion of Greece in the first place to understand what is driving the entire madness.

The EU is a wounded Animal. I know the Remainer narrative is that it is a unified body but the truth is that it is bleeding from almost every orifice and has huge contradictions at its very heart, any one of which could cause it to implode. I can only comment on the Croatian position but from what I hear, most Croatians loathe the EU but, and this is the part that most Brits fail to comprehend, have such little faith in their own national Government given the rampant corruption that even a place as venal and self-serving as Brussels appears a better option than their own domestic politicians.

And I suspect a similar notion is prevalent in many of smaller EU nations. Ireland is a perfect example. From its POV the EU gave it a proper road network and has contributed massively to its success. Whereas its own politicians effectively screwed it over, time and time again and bailed out its banks by lumbering its population with a horrendous debt.

That is the EU's strength in that millions deem it less horrendous than their own political leaders.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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dynamicdick Dormansland 06 Aug 19 10.26pm
Originally posted by Matov You need to understand that for sections of the EU hierarchy Brexit represents a far bigger problem than just trade. I have always expressed a rather heretical view in Leaver circles that actually it would probably be in the UK's interest to continue to pay the EU 'x' amount every year just to maintain the status quo in terms of borders and so on, with of course us being free to do our own trade deals. The reality is that the UK is a wealthy nation, with a healthy commercial culture and is actually rather well positioned, for a variety of factors, to benefit more and more from increasing globalisation. You could even make an argument that perhaps we could still look to protect Irish agricultural imports into the UK market because once again, we do owe Ireland a duty of care of a sorts. And helping others build up their infrastructure and so on has a genuine long term benefit for the UK, even once we have left the EU but for those at the heart of the EU project, our departure represents a serious crisis of confidence. We leave and thrive and it throws a complete spanner into the wider EU project because others might want to join us. Hence the EU simply cannot allow us to depart without kicking up a huge stink. It needs to punish us and so far, has been aided and abetted in that by our Remainer political establishment. Absolute treachery by any measure in my opinion and May and her circle will be judged by history accordingly. Not only the worst PM ever but the one who actually sort to betray this country. Logic would dictate a trade deal and one that is easily done. But this is the EU. An institution that ups sticks every month to spend 4 days in Strasbourg for no logical reason. Absolute insanity that by itself tells you all you need to know about the dysfunction at the heart of it. Edited by Matov (06 Aug 2019 8.15pm) Excellent words. Bring back Brolin
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dynamicdick

Dormansland 06 Aug 19 10.26pm

Originally posted by Matov

You need to understand that for sections of the EU hierarchy Brexit represents a far bigger problem than just trade.

Edited by Matov (06 Aug 2019 8.15pm)

Excellent words.

Bring back Brolin

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deleted user 07 Aug 19 2.32am
The odds for no deal are shortening up, which I'd say matches the landscape right now. If that's how it pans out I wonder if we'll reach a place where we press the pause button with immigration. As an issue it's reached the point where it's viewed in either a light of, you either love foreigners so much you want to let millions of people in, or you openly or secretly hate them and don't want anyone moving here. Obviously those positions don't accurately reflect most peoples view though, so I can see sense in just pausing and creating a sense of stasis. A 'this is who we are' moment for the country that dampens down the rhetoric, and gets us into a place mentally where we view immigration policy as a long term decision and option, rather than an obligation that tells us something profoundly negative about who we are if we aren't beckoning people in by the thousand. Of course the more cynical side of me says that whatever the outcome, the deal, the no deal, nothing will change in that regard anyway. That removing one obstacle just reveals another.
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deleted user

07 Aug 19 2.32am

The odds for no deal are shortening up, which I'd say matches the landscape right now.

If that's how it pans out I wonder if we'll reach a place where we press the pause button with immigration. As an issue it's reached the point where it's viewed in either a light of, you either love foreigners so much you want to let millions of people in, or you openly or secretly hate them and don't want anyone moving here. Obviously those positions don't accurately reflect most peoples view though, so I can see sense in just pausing and creating a sense of stasis. A 'this is who we are' moment for the country that dampens down the rhetoric, and gets us into a place mentally where we view immigration policy as a long term decision and option, rather than an obligation that tells us something profoundly negative about who we are if we aren't beckoning people in by the thousand.

Of course the more cynical side of me says that whatever the outcome, the deal, the no deal, nothing will change in that regard anyway. That removing one obstacle just reveals another.

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deleted user 07 Aug 19 3.11am
Originally posted by topcat Whatever the outcome the majority will be unhappy although I suspect a few will make a (financial) killing in ways that I can't comprehend. I certainly wouldn't argue with you there. There's always a financial angle and you can bet that whatever the outcome if the country loses out they still gain.
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deleted user

07 Aug 19 3.11am

Originally posted by topcat

Whatever the outcome the majority will be unhappy although I suspect a few will make a (financial) killing in ways that I can't comprehend.

I certainly wouldn't argue with you there. There's always a financial angle and you can bet that whatever the outcome if the country loses out they still gain.

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deleted user 07 Aug 19 3.18am
Originally posted by Badger11 The EU is standing firm and will not renegotiate the backstop or re-open the deal. [Link] An expected stand off at this point really.
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deleted user

07 Aug 19 3.18am

Originally posted by Badger11

The EU is standing firm and will not renegotiate the backstop or re-open the deal.

[Link]

An expected stand off at this point really.

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Matov 07 Aug 19 7.24am
Originally posted by dollardays An expected stand off at this point really. We are in a phoney war until September. Lots of spinning and even journalists making s*** up to fill column inches or dead airspace. But then...could be interesting. I suspect Johnson will try to set the agenda. Saw a report being quoted from Bloomberg that sources from within the German Government are quietly confident that Parliament will somehow block 'No Deal'. But I am still at 90% certain that we are heading for another General Election as I cannot see anyway around it. Johnson needs to reboot the party anyway in terms of getting rid of a swathe of current MP's and even if he loses, I suspect he will remain in charge and look to ride the wave of rage that will come about if we do not leave. Because this what Remainers don't seem to grasp. Brexit only goes away after we leave. Yes, they can subsequently campaign for us to rejoin and that is a perfectly legitimate political ambition but if they scupper the vote from June 2016 then Brexit just continues to fester away, infecting any and every aspect of British political life. There is no return to the status quo. Everything changed on June 23rd 2016. And the sooner people understand that the better. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

07 Aug 19 7.24am

Originally posted by dollardays

An expected stand off at this point really.

We are in a phoney war until September. Lots of spinning and even journalists making s*** up to fill column inches or dead airspace.

But then...could be interesting.

I suspect Johnson will try to set the agenda. Saw a report being quoted from Bloomberg that sources from within the German Government are quietly confident that Parliament will somehow block 'No Deal'.

But I am still at 90% certain that we are heading for another General Election as I cannot see anyway around it. Johnson needs to reboot the party anyway in terms of getting rid of a swathe of current MP's and even if he loses, I suspect he will remain in charge and look to ride the wave of rage that will come about if we do not leave.

Because this what Remainers don't seem to grasp. Brexit only goes away after we leave. Yes, they can subsequently campaign for us to rejoin and that is a perfectly legitimate political ambition but if they scupper the vote from June 2016 then Brexit just continues to fester away, infecting any and every aspect of British political life. There is no return to the status quo. Everything changed on June 23rd 2016. And the sooner people understand that the better.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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deleted user 07 Aug 19 11.58am
Originally posted by Matov We are in a phoney war until September. Lots of spinning and even journalists making s* up to fill column inches or dead airspace. But then...could be interesting. I suspect Johnson will try to set the agenda. Saw a report being quoted from Bloomberg that sources from within the German Government are quietly confident that Parliament will somehow block 'No Deal'. But I am still at 90% certain that we are heading for another General Election as I cannot see anyway around it. Johnson needs to reboot the party anyway in terms of getting rid of a swathe of current MP's and even if he loses, I suspect he will remain in charge and look to ride the wave of rage that will come about if we do not leave. He definitely seems to be setting the stage for that in my view. No doubt they are weighing up the options. My concern would be that it'll be a repeat of the last one. Another finely balanced national waste of time, but than of course its down to the individual who to vote for and BoJo is certainly a different proposition to May. Quote** Because this what Remainers don't seem to grasp. Brexit only goes away after we leave. Yes, they can subsequently campaign for us to rejoin and that is a perfectly legitimate political ambition but if they scupper the vote from June 2016 then Brexit just continues to fester away, infecting any and every aspect of British political life. There is no return to the status quo. Everything changed on June 23rd 2016. And the sooner people understand that the better. This is very well put. You can't put the genie back in the bottle. It's better for those vehemently against Brexit to take it on the chin, see what the next few years offer and then evaluate from there. I do feel like we've been set on the same path for so long that it's just become 'what life is', when really whoever you are and whatever your personal politics are, it's good for them to be tested by other realities, outcomes and political climates, as it helps formulate a more complete view of the world.
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deleted user

07 Aug 19 11.58am

Originally posted by Matov

We are in a phoney war until September. Lots of spinning and even journalists making s*** up to fill column inches or dead airspace.

But then...could be interesting.

He definitely seems to be setting the stage for that in my view. No doubt they are weighing up the options. My concern would be that it'll be a repeat of the last one. Another finely balanced national waste of time, but than of course its down to the individual who to vote for and BoJo is certainly a different proposition to May.

Quote
Because this what Remainers don't seem to grasp. Brexit only goes away after we leave. Yes, they can subsequently campaign for us to rejoin and that is a perfectly legitimate political ambition but if they scupper the vote from June 2016 then Brexit just continues to fester away, infecting any and every aspect of British political life. There is no return to the status quo. Everything changed on June 23rd 2016. And the sooner people understand that the better.

This is very well put. You can't put the genie back in the bottle. It's better for those vehemently against Brexit to take it on the chin, see what the next few years offer and then evaluate from there. I do feel like we've been set on the same path for so long that it's just become 'what life is', when really whoever you are and whatever your personal politics are, it's good for them to be tested by other realities, outcomes and political climates, as it helps formulate a more complete view of the world.

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W12 07 Aug 19 3.26pm
Originally posted by Matov We are in a phoney war until September. Lots of spinning and even journalists making s* up to fill column inches or dead airspace. But then...could be interesting. I suspect Johnson will try to set the agenda. Saw a report being quoted from Bloomberg that sources from within the German Government are quietly confident that Parliament will somehow block 'No Deal'. But I am still at 90% certain that we are heading for another General Election as I cannot see anyway around it. Johnson needs to reboot the party anyway in terms of getting rid of a swathe of current MP's and even if he loses, I suspect he will remain in charge and look to ride the wave of rage that will come about if we do not leave. Because this what Remainers don't seem to grasp. Brexit only goes away after we leave. Yes, they can subsequently campaign for us to rejoin and that is a perfectly legitimate political ambition but if they scupper the vote from June 2016 then Brexit just continues to fester away, infecting any and every aspect of British political life**. There is no return to the status quo. Everything changed on June 23rd 2016. And the sooner people understand that the better. Personally I believe it's infected the river upstream in terms of our actual culture. A Nationalist v Globalist chasm has opened up and don't see any easy way to put the genie back into the bottle.
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W12 07 Aug 19 3.26pm

Originally posted by Matov

We are in a phoney war until September. Lots of spinning and even journalists making s*** up to fill column inches or dead airspace.

But then...could be interesting.

Because this what Remainers don't seem to grasp. Brexit only goes away after we leave. Yes, they can subsequently campaign for us to rejoin and that is a perfectly legitimate political ambition but if they scupper the vote from June 2016 then Brexit just continues to fester away, infecting any and every aspect of British political life. There is no return to the status quo. Everything changed on June 23rd 2016. And the sooner people understand that the better.

Personally I believe it's infected the river upstream in terms of our actual culture. A Nationalist v Globalist chasm has opened up and don't see any easy way to put the genie back into the bottle.

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Matov 07 Aug 19 5.51pm
Originally posted by W12 Personally I believe it's infected the river upstream in terms of our actual culture. A Nationalist v Globalist chasm has opened up and don't see any easy way to put the genie back into the bottle. Not so sure. Is the Remain postion truly globalist? The EU is essentially a protection racket, looking to ensure that a series of European industries are effectively offered protection against the slings and arrows of increasingly globalised trade. The EU want that backstop because they don't want the UK to sign trade deals with other countries. One of the reasons I supported Leave is because I believe that due to globalisation the notion of supranational organisations such as the EU are an anachronism. In the 20th century there was perhaps an argument but now? No. Its time has passed. Also how would you marry up the Common Agricultural Policy with your Nationalist/Globalist narrative? The CAP is perhaps the most nationalist policy out there and lays at the very heart of why the EU not only exists but how it operates. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

07 Aug 19 5.51pm

Originally posted by W12

Personally I believe it's infected the river upstream in terms of our actual culture. A Nationalist v Globalist chasm has opened up and don't see any easy way to put the genie back into the bottle.

Not so sure. Is the Remain postion truly globalist? The EU is essentially a protection racket, looking to ensure that a series of European industries are effectively offered protection against the slings and arrows of increasingly globalised trade.

The EU want that backstop because they don't want the UK to sign trade deals with other countries.

One of the reasons I supported Leave is because I believe that due to globalisation the notion of supranational organisations such as the EU are an anachronism. In the 20th century there was perhaps an argument but now? No. Its time has passed.

Also how would you marry up the Common Agricultural Policy with your Nationalist/Globalist narrative? The CAP is perhaps the most nationalist policy out there and lays at the very heart of why the EU not only exists but how it operates.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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