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December 6 2019 1.02pm

The Election Thread

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View jeeagles's Profile jeeagles Flag 30 Oct 19 12.53pm Send a Private Message to jeeagles Add jeeagles as a friend

Trying to work out whats going to happen.

During the last election, the economy was still faltering, Corbyn was at the peak of his popularity, the Tories were making no real progress on Brexit, and tried to put through a ridiculous manifesto. The Tories should have been slaughtered, but they still managed to hang on because Corbyn was so unpopular.

For the current election.

I'd expect the Tories have a manifesto for the center ground, more spending on prisons, police, and infrastructure. They've got a clear Brexit policy. I'd expect them to win back some of the seats lost to Labour. Something like 60% of Tory constituencies voted leave. Out of the 40% that wanted to remain there is a chance that Lib Dem might make some gains, but I think voters in these constituencies won't have strong enough views on Brexit to change there vote. I'd imagine that the Brexit party wont challenge the tories. Boris is also a proven election winner.

Labour, going to produce a real left wing manifesto, will offer a second referendum, no clear policy on Brexit, no funds to run a campaign.... These guys are going to get pummeled. Attacked by the Brexit party in their leave seats and lib dem in moderate remain seats. Their manifesto won't appeal to the center ground, and who wants yet another referendum after this election.

Lib Dem, have a clear policy on brexit and fighting back on their 2015 wipe out. Some people will still critise them for the broken tuition fee promise, but most of those will have finished university now and not care anymore. I'd expect strong gains like in 2010.

Brexit Party...They'll be more successful than UKIP and I'd imagine will only target labour.

SNP. I'm not sure about how well these will do. They say Scotland voted remain, but not all of Scotland voted to remain. If they are promoting an IndyRef2 and and EUref2 the voters are likely to get sick of them.

DUP. Not sure is voters in NI change their mind, but they

 

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View jeeagles's Profile jeeagles Flag 30 Oct 19 12.54pm Send a Private Message to jeeagles Add jeeagles as a friend

Originally posted by Badger11

Who will win?

There is already talk amongst the opposition parties about tactical voting and unofficial alliances and no doubt many of the electorate are coming to the same conclusion. Meanwhile the Brexit party can be king makers.

All this means is that the polls can't be trusted. Boris may have a lead but if the opposition can get their act together in key marginal constituencies it will count for nothing.

At the last GE Labour increased their share of the vote however it was in areas where they already had strong support so an MP with a 5,000 majority won with a 10,000 majority. They didn't win overall because they failed elsewhere.

This time tactical voting is going to play a far more significant role than eve before.

Corbyn will try and move the GE from Brexit to more traditional issues such as NHS and housing. Boris will play the parliament let the country down so give me the majority I need card.

My hope is that we get an overall winner with a mandate to govern.

A lot of those votes were won from former UKIP voters too.

 

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View W12's Profile W12 Flag 30 Oct 19 1.05pm Send a Private Message to W12 Add W12 as a friend

Until a party like UKIP, English Democrats or For Britain are able to put their case on a level playing field I don't give a crap about party politics.

For now I will vote for whoever can help us leave the EU in entirety as it's just the first battle in a long war.

 

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View Painter's Profile Painter Flag Croydon 30 Oct 19 1.18pm Send a Private Message to Painter Add Painter as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

Boring.

Corbyn already started with his tedious whine on the NHS.

Change the record comrade. Surely no one with an ounce of intelligence buys his baloney.

If his friend Tony Blair hadn't allowed 300k people a year to migrate to Britain, maybe the NHS would be under less strain.

Comrade Corbyns strategy was laid out for all in today’s Question Time exchange. He is going to stay as far away as possible in talking about Brexit and as you say bang on about thr NHS, Police and anything a Home related.
Boris is in a difficult position as he has to defend Mays record not his own.
Then you have the Farage factor, he will see this as an opportunity to get some power, just like old Cleggy did.

 

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 30 Oct 19 1.33pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by steeleye20

Monster Raving Loony are the dark horse in the GE 2019 election.

They are bound to score with their popular brexit policies:-

1. Make Germany pay for German measles.

2. Make Spain pay for Spanish flu.

3. Make foreigners pay to use the English Channel.

These are far more attractive to voters than Johnsons deal where the UK submits to EU law and pays them billions of pounds year in and year out, for precisely nothing.

Revoke and repent, you have nothing to lose but your veto.

Your separated at birth twin probably canvasses for them.

 


COYP

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View topcat's Profile topcat Flag Holmesdale / Surbiton 30 Oct 19 1.48pm Send a Private Message to topcat Add topcat as a friend

Originally posted by chris123

Last time Labour indicated they'd ditch tuition fees, which was very popular. I wonder if they do the same this time.

I'm sure that they will say whatever they thing will get people to vote for them.

 


It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses.

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View topcat's Profile topcat Flag Holmesdale / Surbiton 30 Oct 19 1.57pm Send a Private Message to topcat Add topcat as a friend

Originally posted by Dannyh.V2

Is it ?

It's not is it, it is however Parliaments fault as a whole. Having the leave voters win, and then not leaving was parliaments fault and not just the Conservative Government.

Corbyn asking for election after election, then only agreeing to one after an extension to Brexit was asked for. The DUP being the typical small minded short angry man of politics, and lets not forget the house of Lords whom 80 percent are receiving ridiculous pensions from the EU itself who pushed through the bill barring the way for a no deal brexit, effectively meaning we were going into negotiations with one armed tied behind our back.

It is the money grabbing self serving lying conniving shytehawk remainers across all parties that have delayed what the public voted for, not just the ones in the Tory Party.

Yes, it is. David Cameron started it by asking for a yes/no answer to something that obviously isn't a yes/no question and then made is worse by having a referendum that wasn't legally binding,

May could have got a deal through but decided to hold an unnecessary general election and lost the majority.

Even then May could have got a deal through if the Tory party wasn't imploding. May's deal that the Tory hardliners wouldn't vote for is very similar to the one that BJ was pushing for.

All the Tories fault.

 


It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses.

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 30 Oct 19 2.28pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by jeeagles

Trying to work out whats going to happen.

During the last election, the economy was still faltering, Corbyn was at the peak of his popularity, the Tories were making no real progress on Brexit, and tried to put through a ridiculous manifesto. The Tories should have been slaughtered, but they still managed to hang on because Corbyn was so unpopular.

For the current election.

I'd expect the Tories have a manifesto for the center ground, more spending on prisons, police, and infrastructure. They've got a clear Brexit policy. I'd expect them to win back some of the seats lost to Labour. Something like 60% of Tory constituencies voted leave. Out of the 40% that wanted to remain there is a chance that Lib Dem might make some gains, but I think voters in these constituencies won't have strong enough views on Brexit to change there vote. I'd imagine that the Brexit party wont challenge the tories. Boris is also a proven election winner.

Labour, going to produce a real left wing manifesto, will offer a second referendum, no clear policy on Brexit, no funds to run a campaign.... These guys are going to get pummeled. Attacked by the Brexit party in their leave seats and lib dem in moderate remain seats. Their manifesto won't appeal to the center ground, and who wants yet another referendum after this election.

Lib Dem, have a clear policy on brexit and fighting back on their 2015 wipe out. Some people will still critise them for the broken tuition fee promise, but most of those will have finished university now and not care anymore. I'd expect strong gains like in 2010.

Brexit Party...They'll be more successful than UKIP and I'd imagine will only target labour.

SNP. I'm not sure about how well these will do. They say Scotland voted remain, but not all of Scotland voted to remain. If they are promoting an IndyRef2 and and EUref2 the voters are likely to get sick of them.

DUP. Not sure is voters in NI change their mind, but they

Good analysis

I think you are right on Labour they face being challenged by the Lib Dems on one side and The Brexit party on the other. The Tories won't lose many votes to Labour but will take a hit from the Lib Dems and maybe from the Brexit party.

I think the Lib Dems will do pretty well scooping up the Remain voters. I suspect there will also be the odd freak result for the minor parties.

Overall I feel the country will not blame Boris for the Brexit fiasco and as long as he produces a centre ground manifesto I think he will get an overall majority. Corbyn will then resign and Momentum will finally get to place the leader they really want at the head of the party.

 


One more point

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View Midlands Eagle's Profile Midlands Eagle Online Flag 30 Oct 19 2.48pm Send a Private Message to Midlands Eagle Add Midlands Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Badger11

Overall I feel the country will not blame Boris for the Brexit fiasco and as long as he produces a centre ground manifesto I think he will get an overall majority. Corbyn will then resign and Momentum will finally get to place the leader they really want at the head of the party.

I can't see how anyone with more than two brain cells could blame Boris for the Brexit fiasco and when it comes to the TV debates he should make mincemeat out the two opposition loonies

 

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View Spiderman's Profile Spiderman Flag Horsham 30 Oct 19 2.55pm Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

I can't see how anyone with more than two brain cells could blame Boris for the Brexit fiasco and when it comes to the TV debates he should make mincemeat out the two opposition loonies

Exactly. Love watching him at PMQs, took the SNP to the cleaners today....brilliant

 

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 30 Oct 19 3.08pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Article about MPs standing down.

Some of them it is because of age or genuine outside interests. I will let you make your up mind up about the rest.

Hint they were the loudest ones telling us they represented the views of their constituencies (they just don't fancy putting that to the test).

[Link]

 


One more point

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View Tom-the-eagle's Profile Tom-the-eagle Flag Croydon 30 Oct 19 3.14pm Send a Private Message to Tom-the-eagle Add Tom-the-eagle as a friend

Labour are a f@cking joke.

They are meant to be the party of the people but have become the party of the minority’s.

As a professional landlord I could be f@cked as Labour are proposing a ‘tenants right to buy scheme’ where tenants could then buy my houses off me at a discounted rate!

[Link]

Never mind I have spent the past 20 years working my ass off.

My Mrs would also be f@cked as she works at a private school. Labour also want to abolish these which I find ludicrous as private school parents pay for their own kids tuition and so effectively cost the state nothing.

I’m not particularly pro Tory but the current Labour bunch are Marxist bellends.

 


"It feels much better than it ever did, much more sensitive." John Wayne Bobbit

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