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September 20 2020 6.04am

Coronavirus

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View Forest Hillbilly's Profile Forest Hillbilly Flag in a hidey-hole 12 Sep 20 7.52pm Send a Private Message to Forest Hillbilly Add Forest Hillbilly as a friend

Because all the vulnerable people are already dead ?

Job Done.

You can do what you want with statistics. It's the raw data, and continuity in how it's gathered is the top priority

 


,.,.,..,

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag Chatham 12 Sep 20 8.11pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by Forest Hillbilly

Because all the vulnerable people are already dead ?

Job Done.

You can do what you want with statistics. It's the raw data, and continuity in how it's gathered is the top priority

Strangely that is probably what is being looked into.
If, and a big if deaths do not rise substantially then it may well allow a slow return to normality.
Long term issues,as posted about are also I would think be getting some observation.
If the outcome is minimal deaths and proof of a very low long term problem, very low then that could be enough for boris to call it a day on the restrictions. As it stands the infection numbers are rising so now it's just time which will enable some positive moves forwards.
It could be done by xmas or still be here in march.

 

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View BlueJay's Profile BlueJay Flag UK 13 Sep 20 12.40am Send a Private Message to BlueJay Add BlueJay as a friend


Smoking is clearly a big health negative. In fact other than becoming seriously obese, a long term alcoholic or drug addict I can't think of any bad health choice that virals it. My point stands though, that it's chalk and cheese. Smoking is an increasing drag on health over a course of time, most often decades. It's not an overnight disaster one way or the other, nor from any rational perspective is anything substantively negative going to happen to anyone as result of smoking for a period of weeks. That would be a real outlier of outliers.

I agree though that long term smoking will kill a serious percentage of those that partake, far more than covid. The flipside, making direct comparison a bit of a non start is that if covid does impact you very badly, you'll be struggling for your last breath after in 40 days rather than 40 years. One is an issue very much in the here and now, one is a long term health choice.

 

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View BlueJay's Profile BlueJay Flag UK 13 Sep 20 12.51am Send a Private Message to BlueJay Add BlueJay as a friend

Originally posted by Tim Gypsy Hill '64

By the way, you may have noticed that the media are now reporting positive tests instead of deaths. This is because positive tests are rising. Scary stuff. How about reporting deaths, which aren't rising

They will of course be rising, hopefully not to the numbers we saw before though. A combination of it already ripping through old folks homes (less to bump off), the weeks long delay in case rises leading to deaths (just as we saw first time around), and the number of cases still no doubt being substantively lower than they were in the first wave (due to testing not being anywhere near as widespread) no doubt all factor in.

My hope would be that we're not having 1000+ a day deaths again. For the reasons stated, and somewhat improved treatments, I think we'll fall short of that. It's worth noting based on the stats in other countries and here first time around, that the situation can change drastically within 5 or 6 weeks, so we perhaps shouldn't get too caught up on the nobody is dying train of thought.

Edited by BlueJay (13 Sep 2020 12.55am)

 

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View BlueJay's Profile BlueJay Flag UK 13 Sep 20 12.55am Send a Private Message to BlueJay Add BlueJay as a friend

Pfizer proposes expansion of late-stage coronavirus vaccine trialPfizer proposes expansion of late-stage coronavirus vaccine trial - [Link]

 

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View The Dolphin's Profile The Dolphin Flag 13 Sep 20 8.10am Send a Private Message to The Dolphin Add The Dolphin as a friend

We are testing more and testing more in hot spot areas as well so positive tests will naturally rise.
Hospitalisation and deaths will be the key and with the rise in cases being so recent we will not know the consequences for a week or more yet - that will be the acid test surely?
If positive tests don't return dire consequences then maybe we are getting to the situation where the virus can be lived with as such.
Let's hope that is the case anyway because we cannot afford full lockdown again!

 

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 13 Sep 20 8.35am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

I’ll add that the differences in human interaction in France and Spain compared to Britain will be a factor, especially a lot of older people who will find it easy to postpone hugging etc, contrary to left wing, govt control loving bed wetters and also the younger generation who can’t stop hugging each other as if they’re not going to see each other again for 2 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if our hospitalisations and deaths are much lower per different numbers.

Tourism in particularly Spain might also be a factor and of course you won’t hear their aggressive testing policy in hospitals on everyone inside a hospital,

If the high positives here (not illness or cases really or even infectious a lot of the time if it’s fragments of Covid from up to 6 months ago) do not result in deaths, it’ll be funny waiting for more ‘give it 2 weeks’ after a few too many people are in a pub or something.

 


COYP

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 13 Sep 20 10.39am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

[Link]

Carl Heneghan on the rule of 6 and more of the government’s mish mash handling.

 


COYP

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View BlueJay's Profile BlueJay Flag UK 13 Sep 20 6.04pm Send a Private Message to BlueJay Add BlueJay as a friend

Face masks could be giving people Covid-19 immunity, researchers suggest - [Link] More on the viral load school of thought. Just a hypothesis from an expert in the field but possibly worth noting.


Quote

Face masks may be inadvertently giving people Covid-19 immunity and making them get less sick from the virus, academics have suggested in one of the most respected medical journals in the world.

The commentary, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, advances the unproven but promising theory that universal face mask wearing might be helping to reduce the severity of the virus and ensuring that a greater proportion of new infections are asymptomatic.

If this hypothesis is borne out, the academics argue, then universal mask-wearing could become a form of variolation (inoculation) that would generate immunity and “thereby slow the spread of the virus in the United States and elsewhere” as the world awaits a vaccine.

It comes as increasing evidence suggests that the amount of virus someone is exposed to at the start of infection - the “infectious dose” - may determine the severity of their illness. Indeed, a large study published in the Lancet last month found that “viral load at diagnosis” was an “independent predictor of mortality” in hospital patients.

Wearing masks could therefore reduce the infectious dose that the wearer is exposed to and, subsequently, the impact of the disease, as masks filter out some virus-containing droplets.

Better still, as data has emerged in recent weeks suggesting that there can be strong immune responses from even mild or asymptomatic coronavirus infection, researchers say that any public health strategy that helps reduce the severity of the virus - such as mask wearing - should increase population-wide immunity as well.

This is because even a low viral load can be enough to induce an immune response, which is effectively what a typical vaccine does.

While this hypothesis needs to be backed up with more clinical study, experiments in hamsters have hinted at a connection between dose and disease. Earlier this year, a team of researchers in China found that hamsters housed behind a barrier made of surgical masks were less likely to get infected by the coronavirus. And those who did contract the virus became less sick than other animals without masks to protect them.

Some observations found in humans seem to support this as well. In a coronavirus outbreak on a closed Argentinian cruise ship, for example, where passengers were provided with surgical masks and staff with N95 masks, the rate of asymptomatic infection was 81 per cent. This is compared with 20 per cent in earlier cruise ship outbreaks without universal masking.

Still, Dr Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease physician at the University of California, San Francisco, and one of the paper’s authors, has stressed that the commentary has its limitations and should not be construed as anything other than a theory.

“To test the variolation hypothesis, we will need more studies comparing the strength and durability of SARS-CoV-2–specific T-cell immunity between people with asymptomatic infection and those with symptomatic infection, as well as a demonstration of the natural slowing of SARS-CoV-2 spread in areas with a high proportion of asymptomatic infections,” she told the Sunday Telegraph.

“However, it is true that the proportion of asymptomatic infection being increased by masking might increase the proportion of the population who achieve at least short-term immunity to the virus while we await a vaccine.”

Dr Julian Tang, Honorary Associate Professor of Respiratory Sciences at the University of Leicester, has shared Dr Gandhi’s cautious optimism.

“This idea of 'variolation' - a term originally derived from the smallpox pre-vaccine era - is quite feasible and may add to the protective physical effects of universal masking - by low level stimulation of the wearer's immune system as it is exposed to low levels of airborne SARS-CoV-2, which can induce an immune response but without any overt infection and disease,” she said.

She added: “This is after all the response to a typical vaccine - where the recipient's immune systems are stimulated, subclinically, to produce protective immune responses to combat the infection if exposed at a future date.

“Of course, more formal studies are required to confirm this effect, and there are likely natural experiments ongoing around the world at the moment.”


This could be another contributing factor to add to the list of how future infections pan out.

 

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View BlueJay's Profile BlueJay Flag UK 13 Sep 20 6.14pm Send a Private Message to BlueJay Add BlueJay as a friend

Once the numbers are really on the up, there's an argument that testing become a bit whack-a-mole anyway, but with a backlog of 185,000 tests already and swabs being sent to to Italy and Germany perhaps that's even more true now [Link]

 

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View Eden Eagle's Profile Eden Eagle Flag Kent 13 Sep 20 7.50pm Send a Private Message to Eden Eagle Add Eden Eagle as a friend

A surgeon explaining why face masks do not work

[Link]

If there is any value to the masks then these should be changed frequently and put on with care - so not sure using the same one for days on end or leaving them in the glove box of your car for next time you visit the supermarket has the same effect?

 

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View Tim Gypsy Hill '64's Profile Tim Gypsy Hill '64 Flag Stoke sub normal 13 Sep 20 8.16pm Send a Private Message to Tim Gypsy Hill '64 Add Tim Gypsy Hill '64 as a friend

Originally posted by BlueJay

Face masks could be giving people Covid-19 immunity, researchers suggest - [Link] More on the viral load school of thought. Just a hypothesis from an expert in the field but possibly worth noting.


Quote

Face masks may be inadvertently giving people Covid-19 immunity and making them get less sick from the virus, academics have suggested in one of the most respected medical journals in the world.

The commentary, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, advances the unproven but promising theory that universal face mask wearing might be helping to reduce the severity of the virus and ensuring that a greater proportion of new infections are asymptomatic.

If this hypothesis is borne out, the academics argue, then universal mask-wearing could become a form of variolation (inoculation) that would generate immunity and “thereby slow the spread of the virus in the United States and elsewhere” as the world awaits a vaccine.

It comes as increasing evidence suggests that the amount of virus someone is exposed to at the start of infection - the “infectious dose” - may determine the severity of their illness. Indeed, a large study published in the Lancet last month found that “viral load at diagnosis” was an “independent predictor of mortality” in hospital patients.

Wearing masks could therefore reduce the infectious dose that the wearer is exposed to and, subsequently, the impact of the disease, as masks filter out some virus-containing droplets.

Better still, as data has emerged in recent weeks suggesting that there can be strong immune responses from even mild or asymptomatic coronavirus infection, researchers say that any public health strategy that helps reduce the severity of the virus - such as mask wearing - should increase population-wide immunity as well.

This is because even a low viral load can be enough to induce an immune response, which is effectively what a typical vaccine does.

While this hypothesis needs to be backed up with more clinical study, experiments in hamsters have hinted at a connection between dose and disease. Earlier this year, a team of researchers in China found that hamsters housed behind a barrier made of surgical masks were less likely to get infected by the coronavirus. And those who did contract the virus became less sick than other animals without masks to protect them.

Some observations found in humans seem to support this as well. In a coronavirus outbreak on a closed Argentinian cruise ship, for example, where passengers were provided with surgical masks and staff with N95 masks, the rate of asymptomatic infection was 81 per cent. This is compared with 20 per cent in earlier cruise ship outbreaks without universal masking.

Still, Dr Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease physician at the University of California, San Francisco, and one of the paper’s authors, has stressed that the commentary has its limitations and should not be construed as anything other than a theory.

“To test the variolation hypothesis, we will need more studies comparing the strength and durability of SARS-CoV-2–specific T-cell immunity between people with asymptomatic infection and those with symptomatic infection, as well as a demonstration of the natural slowing of SARS-CoV-2 spread in areas with a high proportion of asymptomatic infections,” she told the Sunday Telegraph.

“However, it is true that the proportion of asymptomatic infection being increased by masking might increase the proportion of the population who achieve at least short-term immunity to the virus while we await a vaccine.”

Dr Julian Tang, Honorary Associate Professor of Respiratory Sciences at the University of Leicester, has shared Dr Gandhi’s cautious optimism.

“This idea of 'variolation' - a term originally derived from the smallpox pre-vaccine era - is quite feasible and may add to the protective physical effects of universal masking - by low level stimulation of the wearer's immune system as it is exposed to low levels of airborne SARS-CoV-2, which can induce an immune response but without any overt infection and disease,” she said.

She added: “This is after all the response to a typical vaccine - where the recipient's immune systems are stimulated, subclinically, to produce protective immune responses to combat the infection if exposed at a future date.

“Of course, more formal studies are required to confirm this effect, and there are likely natural experiments ongoing around the world at the moment.”


This could be another contributing factor to add to the list of how future infections pan out.

More fcuking guesswork. It's a coronavirus. We have tons of historic data about them. They don't have 'second waves'. The curve of this one matches all previous recorded coronaviruses. As stated earlier, all the vulnerable are already killed off by it. Or at least most of them. The death rate will indeed rise over the coming months, as it has every year since viruses existed. Some years are worse than others, I'll speculate that this seasons deaths will be lower than average as the vulnerable are now too scared to go anywhere or meet anyone.

So don't kill your grannie. Just don't ever see her again and she'll die anyway.

Edited by Tim Gypsy Hill '64 (13 Sep 2020 8.19pm)

 


Systematically dragged down by the lawmakers

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