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September 20 2020 5.17am

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 13 Sep 20 8.32pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Tim Gypsy Hill '64

More fcuking guesswork. It's a coronavirus. We have tons of historic data about them. They don't have 'second waves'. The curve of this one matches all previous recorded coronaviruses. As stated earlier, all the vulnerable are already killed off by it. Or at least most of them. The death rate will indeed rise over the coming months, as it has every year since viruses existed. Some years are worse than others, I'll speculate that this seasons deaths will be lower than average as the vulnerable are now too scared to go anywhere or meet anyone.

So don't kill your grannie. Just don't ever see her again and she'll die anyway.

Edited by Tim Gypsy Hill '64 (13 Sep 2020 8.19pm)

Good points.

Not that common sense exists in public policy anymore.

 

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 13 Sep 20 10.46pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Tim Gypsy Hill '64

More fcuking guesswork. It's a coronavirus. We have tons of historic data about them. They don't have 'second waves'. The curve of this one matches all previous recorded coronaviruses. As stated earlier, all the vulnerable are already killed off by it. Or at least most of them. The death rate will indeed rise over the coming months, as it has every year since viruses existed. Some years are worse than others, I'll speculate that this seasons deaths will be lower than average as the vulnerable are now too scared to go anywhere or meet anyone.

So don't kill your grannie. Just don't ever see her again and she'll die anyway.

Edited by Tim Gypsy Hill '64 (13 Sep 2020 8.19pm)

Worth another repost and you’ll have read my thoughts on the different cultures of older people in Britain compared to Southern Europe and France.

 


COYP

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View BlueJay's Profile BlueJay Flag UK 14 Sep 20 1.44am Send a Private Message to BlueJay Add BlueJay as a friend

Originally posted by Tim Gypsy Hill '64

More fcuking guesswork. It's a coronavirus. We have tons of historic data about them. They don't have 'second waves'. The curve of this one matches all previous recorded coronaviruses. As stated earlier, all the vulnerable are already killed off by it. Or at least most of them. The death rate will indeed rise over the coming months, as it has every year since viruses existed. Some years are worse than others, I'll speculate that this seasons deaths will be lower than average as the vulnerable are now too scared to go anywhere or meet anyone.

So don't kill your grannie. Just don't ever see her again and she'll die anyway.

Edited by Tim Gypsy Hill '64 (13 Sep 2020 8.19pm)

SARS and MERS certainly did a number on people in various ways that other coronaviruses didn't, so they're not all identical in every way. The same with immunity, with some coronaviruses it's short-lived, for others it lasts for years and so that feeds into how these viruses can spread. When something is new and as contagious as covid-19, opinion stated as fact doesn't really mean much, because it will be what it will be one way or the other. It has unique characteristics (for starters, in the worldwide picture it's starting to look like covid-19 might not be particularly seasonal, instead 'just' extremely contagious) and exactly how the next few months will pan out isn't something that is known.

If you read the article you'd see that there is good logic (inoculating against viruses is nothing new) and more specific emerging data around viral load so it's something worth registering as a possibility at least to those open to information and seeing where it leads in future studies. Inoculating against smallpox was 'guesswork' has history to it, combine that with the pertinent studies and and it Point being for the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain situations, it's possible at least that you're putting yourself in a better situation in numerous ways. To me that is useful for people to consider, be aware of, and for further studies to be done. Sharing studies and developing thoughts from those well known in the field perhaps conveys something of value that blanket 'no i'm right, you're wrong' b0llock swinging fails to.


Edited by BlueJay (14 Sep 2020 3.48am)

 

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View Teddy Eagle's Profile Teddy Eagle Flag 14 Sep 20 10.30am Send a Private Message to Teddy Eagle Add Teddy Eagle as a friend

[Link]

 

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 14 Sep 20 10.32am Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

I'm on the bus with 30 people, going into work where I'll be in a room with ten, with over 100 in it.
But tomorrow for my son's birthday, I'm only allowed six in the house. That's the bulls*** half-arsed crap that grates so much.

 


I used to put the manager's name in front of Red and Blue but got fed up with changing it. If someone cool becomes our manager then maybe..

Red and Blue Army!

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 14 Sep 20 10.52am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Living in a gated community has never been so appealing.

Trouble is I’m not sure if I could even trust some people I’d think of inviting going by the

‘We’re not allowed to’ and the condoning of snitching 5-6 months ago.

 


COYP

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 14 Sep 20 10.59am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by BlueJay

SARS and MERS certainly did a number on people in various ways that other coronaviruses didn't, so they're not all identical in every way. The same with immunity, with some coronaviruses it's short-lived, for others it lasts for years and so that feeds into how these viruses can spread. When something is new and as contagious as covid-19, opinion stated as fact doesn't really mean much, because it will be what it will be one way or the other. It has unique characteristics (for starters, in the worldwide picture it's starting to look like covid-19 might not be particularly seasonal, instead 'just' extremely contagious) and exactly how the next few months will pan out isn't something that is known.

If you read the article you'd see that there is good logic (inoculating against viruses is nothing new) and more specific emerging data around viral load so it's something worth registering as a possibility at least to those open to information and seeing where it leads in future studies. Inoculating against smallpox was 'guesswork' has history to it, combine that with the pertinent studies and and it Point being for the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain situations, it's possible at least that you're putting yourself in a better situation in numerous ways. To me that is useful for people to consider, be aware of, and for further studies to be done. Sharing studies and developing thoughts from those well known in the field perhaps conveys something of value that blanket 'no i'm right, you're wrong' b0llock swinging fails to.


Edited by BlueJay (14 Sep 2020 3.48am)

SARS-1 and MERS didn’t have a 2nd wave. I’m assuming that your opinion and that of these studies is that we continue restricting everyone and damage the economy and employment to shield the vulnerable who can shield anyway, and incidentally what the govt are reluctantly starting to hint at.

And while the fretting over the usual leftover recovery and implications of being infected with a serious illness carries on we allow thousands of cancer and cardiac patients to not be seen, to be refused treatment when they finally are after 6+ months, until possibly they’re critical to be operated on in empty hospitals, if they’re lucky. Just struggling with the medics or government behavioural scientists’ moral viewpoints.

 


COYP

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View Tim Gypsy Hill '64's Profile Tim Gypsy Hill '64 Flag Stoke sub normal 14 Sep 20 2.31pm Send a Private Message to Tim Gypsy Hill '64 Add Tim Gypsy Hill '64 as a friend

Originally posted by BlueJay

SARS and MERS certainly did a number on people in various ways that other coronaviruses didn't, so they're not all identical in every way. The same with immunity, with some coronaviruses it's short-lived, for others it lasts for years and so that feeds into how these viruses can spread. When something is new and as contagious as covid-19, opinion stated as fact doesn't really mean much, because it will be what it will be one way or the other. It has unique characteristics (for starters, in the worldwide picture it's starting to look like covid-19 might not be particularly seasonal, instead 'just' extremely contagious) and exactly how the next few months will pan out isn't something that is known.

If you read the article you'd see that there is good logic (inoculating against viruses is nothing new) and more specific emerging data around viral load so it's something worth registering as a possibility at least to those open to information and seeing where it leads in future studies. Inoculating against smallpox was 'guesswork' has history to it, combine that with the pertinent studies and and it Point being for the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask in certain situations, it's possible at least that you're putting yourself in a better situation in numerous ways. To me that is useful for people to consider, be aware of, and for further studies to be done. Sharing studies and developing thoughts from those well known in the field perhaps conveys something of value that blanket 'no i'm right, you're wrong' b0llock swinging fails to.


Edited by BlueJay (14 Sep 2020 3.48am)

Did you read it? Because I think you may have missed some bits.

"Face masks may be inadvertently..." Guess.
"...academics have suggested..." Guess.
"...face mask wearing might be helping..." Guess
"If this hypothesis is borne out, the academics argue..." Guess

And the real whammy.....

"Dr Monica Gandhi... has stressed that the commentary has its limitations and should not be construed as anything other than a theory."

If that's not guesswork what am I missing?

Also, I never said Covid-19 was seasonal. Or any virus for that matter, I said this season, ie autumn/winter.
I didn't say they were all identical either, I stated they all behave the same.

So who is b0llock swinging?

 


Systematically dragged down by the lawmakers

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 14 Sep 20 3.00pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Has this thread been censored by Downing Street lol?

 


COYP

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag Chatham 14 Sep 20 5.38pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by ASCPFC

I'm on the bus with 30 people, going into work where I'll be in a room with ten, with over 100 in it.
But tomorrow for my son's birthday, I'm only allowed six in the house. That's the bulls*** half-arsed crap that grates so much.

It's not neccesarily the crowds spreading it.
Its peoples actions and behaviour. How many on that bus or in that office kiss,hug or share items.
Not many I would guess.
Contamination or contact is the biggest spreader.
Hence why the cases are proved to be rising in the house within family units.
Bolton nearly 200 cases per 100k. Thats huge and a majority are through family units.
If deaths dont shoot up then I think it will be relaxed in a few weeks. Although ICU admittance is rising so may well go up.

 

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View BlueJay's Profile BlueJay Flag UK 14 Sep 20 11.20pm Send a Private Message to BlueJay Add BlueJay as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

SARS-1 and MERS didn’t have a 2nd wave. I’m assuming that your opinion and that of these studies is that we continue restricting everyone and damage the economy and employment to shield the vulnerable who can shield anyway, and incidentally what the govt are reluctantly starting to hint at.

And while the fretting over the usual leftover recovery and implications of being infected with a serious illness carries on we allow thousands of cancer and cardiac patients to not be seen, to be refused treatment when they finally are after 6+ months, until possibly they’re critical to be operated on in empty hospitals, if they’re lucky. Just struggling with the medics or government behavioural scientists’ moral viewpoints.

I was highlighting to the poster the fact that viruses (even coronaviruses) have stark differences between them which makes declaring as fact how future ones will behave pointless. We do not exactly know what the next say three or four months hold for us. It's hardly unlikely though that we'll have case numbers very much higher than they are now in a month or two. What we call that isn't really that important to me.

As for assuming I'm posting these studies due to wanting to restrict or further restrict and damage the economy, that's possibly more revealing of your own views towards all of this than my own. It's the working back and rubbishing of anything that isn't targetted towards a preferred outcome. I don't see the point in that.

I've been on record countless times saying that I would not support another lockdown for instance. That in itself does not automatically follow that I am not interested in developing science around treatments, preventative measures, vaccines, hypotheses and so on.

And yes I certainly agree that partly through terrible luck, and also a really lopsided allocation of resources, a great many have suffered and indeed died over this past year of conditions other than this virus.

Edited by BlueJay (15 Sep 2020 12.48am)

 

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View BlueJay's Profile BlueJay Flag UK 14 Sep 20 11.43pm Send a Private Message to BlueJay Add BlueJay as a friend

Originally posted by Tim Gypsy Hill '64

Did you read it? Because I think you may have missed some bits.

"Face masks may be inadvertently..." Guess.
"...academics have suggested..." Guess.
"...face mask wearing might be helping..." Guess
"If this hypothesis is borne out, the academics argue..." Guess

And the real whammy.....

"Dr Monica Gandhi... has stressed that the commentary has its limitations and should not be construed as anything other than a theory."

If that's not guesswork what am I missing?

Also, I never said Covid-19 was seasonal. Or any virus for that matter, I said this season, ie autumn/winter.
I didn't say they were all identical either, I stated they all behave the same.

So who is b0llock swinging?

You harped on about 'guesswork' in your other message while using half of the very same message to, in your own words, 'speculate', just as you have speculated countless times before. Am I going through every example of your speculation and guesswork to label it as such? No. Hold yourself to a standard too if you're going to offer pointlessly one dimensional interpretations of an article.

Inoculation, in its original sense, is a proven reality with certain viruses. Smallpox for instance. Viral load is too. A combination of instances of breakouts where masks were worn and clinical coronavirus animal studies demonstrating that lower exposure resulted in less severe cases has led scientists to explore this area, which would seem to be a rather sensible idea. Sorry if that offends you in some way. In the very post you excitedly informed us was guesswork I had already stated right at the top that it's "just a hypothesis.." just as in my following message I stated that it's worth exploring as a possibility, so I'm not sure what you think you're adding. You going HAHA GUESSWORK adfinitum, is neither here nor there since neither me nor the article has stated the hypothesis as fact in the first place. I don't have time to endlessly argue the toss about nothing over and over. If the article is of interest take it as such, if it isn't then don't.

Edited by BlueJay (15 Sep 2020 12.51am)

 

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