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October 4 2022 5.17am

Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag The garden of England 22 Sep 22 5.07pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan

Russia is drafting 1,000,000 soldiers not 300,000.

Will be done in 3 waves.

So to the border with Poland ,Sweden and others it is then. Should be interesting. Might have to start stashing the cash away. Not sure why but Something tells me itís goner be a good bet to have if this rolls on.

 

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 22 Sep 22 6.12pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst

So to the border with Poland ,Sweden and others it is then. Should be interesting. Might have to start stashing the cash away. Not sure why but Something tells me itís goner be a good bet to have if this rolls on.

It's not an invasion you have to worry about Cryrst.

If the Russians were looking to go beyond the Ukraine they would need much more....if they are going to hold territory beyond the east and south it'll be rebellious and much harder than the republics.

But as things stand it certainly looks like the Ukraine is toast, with it being a more a question of what the end result looks like.

Or perhaps we will all get crispy, Russia and everyone else.

Edited by Stirlingsays (22 Sep 2022 6.15pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 22 Sep 22 6.32pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

With every passing day the folly of March shines brighter and brighter.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Wisbech Eagle's Profile Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 22 Sep 22 7.22pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan

Russia is drafting 1,000,000 soldiers not 300,000.

Will be done in 3 waves.

Do weight of numbers actually count for much in wars these days? Especially of untrained conscripts with doubtful moral, fighting with out of date weapons.

 

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 22 Sep 22 8.31pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Do weight of numbers actually count for much in wars these days? Especially of untrained conscripts with doubtful moral, fighting with out of date weapons.

Yes as long as that country can handle the body bags and I think Russia can. The US in Vietnam couldn't.

Don't get me wrong I am not saying its a good strategy but I just think the Russians have a history of taking losses that most countries would find unacceptable.

Edited by Badger11 (22 Sep 2022 8.31pm)

 


One more point

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View Wisbech Eagle's Profile Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 22 Sep 22 9.12pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Badger11

Yes as long as that country can handle the body bags and I think Russia can. The US in Vietnam couldn't.

Don't get me wrong I am not saying its a good strategy but I just think the Russians have a history of taking losses that most countries would find unacceptable.

Edited by Badger11 (22 Sep 2022 8.31pm)

This isn't though a historical war, fought either by infantry or even by tanks. This is a modern war in which advanced technology appears to be decisive. Abundant forces will be useful to deliver logistics and suppress civilians in occupied areas, but not in countering superior technology. You first need to occupy and then to hold. Maybe it's the holding that Putin thinks has gone wrong recently.

I am no expert and, unlike some here, don't pretend to be. I am simply observing and reflecting.

 

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View Ouzo Dan's Profile Ouzo Dan 22 Sep 22 9.34pm Send a Private Message to Ouzo Dan Add Ouzo Dan as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Do weight of numbers actually count for much in wars these days? Especially of untrained conscripts with doubtful moral, fighting with out of date weapons.

1 year National service is mandatory in Russia, Russia actually has a pool of about 25,000,000 people it can call upon that have completed national service.
It's worth noting these reservists are better trained than Ukraine's civil defence force,
Ukraine's professional army stands at about 180,000 (could be wrong on this figure).

Russia's biggest problem is logistics, they have one tactic which is blitzkrieg - Artillery the f*** out of an area & then tank rush it.
We saw at the start of the war how incompetent their logistics was with an invading army of 150,000 so how they're going to keep an army of a million going I have no clue.

Ultimately you don't bring a million soldiers into a country unless you're going all the way.
It's going to be a blood bath & the Russian forces are backed with Nuclear weapons.

The Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod is a 2 hour 50 minute drive from my front door.


 


Sex Panther 60% of the time it works every time

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View Wisbech Eagle's Profile Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 22 Sep 22 10.03pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan

1 year National service is mandatory in Russia, Russia actually has a pool of about 25,000,000 people it can call upon that have completed national service.
It's worth noting these reservists are better trained than Ukraine's civil defence force,
Ukraine's professional army stands at about 180,000 (could be wrong on this figure).

Russia's biggest problem is logistics, they have one tactic which is blitzkrieg - Artillery the f*** out of an area & then tank rush it.
We saw at the start of the war how incompetent their logistics was with an invading army of 150,000 so how they're going to keep an army of a million going I have no clue.

Ultimately you don't bring a million soldiers into a country unless you're going all the way.
It's going to be a blood bath & the Russian forces are backed with Nuclear weapons.

The Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod is a 2 hour 50 minute drive from my front door.


As I said a few posts ago, I wonder whether this in Putin adding weight to his side of the scales ready for some serious negotiations after being pressured by Xi and messages passed out by Erdogan. For all our sakes, but especially yours, I hope I am right.

 

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View Ouzo Dan's Profile Ouzo Dan 22 Sep 22 10.32pm Send a Private Message to Ouzo Dan Add Ouzo Dan as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

As I said a few posts ago, I wonder whether this in Putin adding weight to his side of the scales ready for some serious negotiations after being pressured by Xi and messages passed out by Erdogan. For all our sakes, but especially yours, I hope I am right.

I think negotiations will depend on how successful this influx of soldiers will be, if Russia starts to take considerable amounts of territory why would they stop to negotiate?
The US & Europe have sunk unbelievable amounts of money into Ukraine hedging their bets on a Ukrainian win, if Russia starts to roll over the country there will be an intervention.
What xi says publicly is probably very different to what he says privately don't forget China & Russia have just signed off on a gas pipe.

Russia's plan for Slovakia is to partition off everything east of Kosice & turn it into Transcarpathia, Slovakia's military is shockingly equipped however it does have the Carpathians, high tatras & low tatras from which to assault an invading army, Russia would be stopped dead in its tracks for a while.

 


Sex Panther 60% of the time it works every time

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 22 Sep 22 10.34pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

WE should get out there and take his clothes off.

That'll should terrify the Russian hordes all the way back to Moscow.

Ten years of therapy still wouldn't get them to speak of the horror.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 22 Sep 22 10.42pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan

I think negotiations will depend on how successful this influx of soldiers will be, if Russia starts to take considerable amounts of territory why would they stop to negotiate?
The US & Europe have sunk unbelievable amounts of money into Ukraine hedging their bets on a Ukrainian win, if Russia starts to roll over the country there will be an intervention.
What xi says publicly is probably very different to what he says privately don't forget China & Russia have just signed off on a gas pipe.

Russia's plan for Slovakia is to partition off everything east of Kosice & turn it into Transcarpathia, Slovakia's military is shockingly equipped however it does have the Carpathians, high tatras & low tatras from which to assault an invading army, Russia would be stopped dead in its tracks for a while.

Russia needs its allies, it's obvious that the mobilisation decision has only come after consultation with them.

That's our biggest hope that going nuclear really will be a last option for Putin as China really doesn't want that to deal with right now.

Mobilisation comes at a significant cost to Russia so my analysis is that six months is the maximum that Putin plans to be fighting for.

I agree it's going to be a blood bath and it's quite unforgivable.

If Uzhhorod gets into range of Russia artillery you aren't going to want to be around....No doubt you have plans.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 23 Sep 22 10.26am Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

This isn't though a historical war, fought either by infantry or even by tanks. This is a modern war in which advanced technology appears to be decisive. Abundant forces will be useful to deliver logistics and suppress civilians in occupied areas, but not in countering superior technology. You first need to occupy and then to hold. Maybe it's the holding that Putin thinks has gone wrong recently.

I am no expert and, unlike some here, don't pretend to be. I am simply observing and reflecting.

Any look at history will often show the hordes beating technologically superior forces. Although there are many nuances and grey areas. You can probably think of some straight away.
I guess the obvious one is WWII where the best planes, tanks, rockets etc, could not beat mass produced ones in large numbers.
It's what makes the Chinese and North Koreans the worry that they are. If you want to compare, then the West is a bit like the Germans, due to the numbers and technology in our forces. China/N Korea a bit like the Soviets. Endless reserves until we are nearly all done.

 


Patrick Vieira's
Red and Blue Army!

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