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December 3 2023 11.04am

Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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View Sir James Hird's Profile Sir James Hird Flag Mount Martha 07 Oct 22 2.25am Send a Private Message to Sir James Hird Add Sir James Hird as a friend

Ever since the commencement of the war in Ukraine, I have been of the opinion that Russia wanted to be able to control the use of the Black Sea.
With the Areas of Ukraine that they sort of control, they only need to take Odessa and they have it.
This would then give Russia a stranglehold over Ukraine's economy,
would that be right?

 

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View Henry of Peckham's Profile Henry of Peckham Flag Eton Mess 07 Oct 22 2.28am Send a Private Message to Henry of Peckham Add Henry of Peckham as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Ukraine's Zelensky calls on NATO to launch "preemptive strikes" against Russia to "eliminate the possibility" of a Russian nuclear strike.

This is frigging nuts times ten.

Mega nuts because no one wins in a nuclear war. NATO is a defensive organisation for its members - it doesnít do preemptive strikes. Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

 


Denial is not just a river in Egypt

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 07 Oct 22 3.09am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Sir James Hird

Ever since the commencement of the war in Ukraine, I have been of the opinion that Russia wanted to be able to control the use of the Black Sea.
With the Areas of Ukraine that they sort of control, they only need to take Odessa and they have it.
This would then give Russia a stranglehold over Ukraine's economy,
would that be right?

The east and south of Ukraine are where most of the productive mines and materials along with a good chunk of their wheat production are...certainly. It's kind of a sick joke that the Ukraine has ever been poor really.

With the current map Odessa is the Ukraine's only sea access.

As for the Ukraine's economy.....it was poor anyway, (which as I say is ridiculous) but it was fecked six ways to Sunday when the war started.

I certainly don't see how they are ever going to replay what they now owe.....It could only be done with the fantasy scenario of a Russian overthrow and unconditional surrender where they paid war reparations.

Edited by Stirlingsays (07 Oct 2022 3.23am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 07 Oct 22 3.21am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Henry of Peckham

Mega nuts because no one wins in a nuclear war. NATO is a defensive organisation for its members - it doesnít do preemptive strikes. Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

Nato is basically the US's puppy....and the US are the only nation to use nukes...and that was to save losing troops invading the Japanese mainland.

I would agree that the kind of politicians we had while the Soviets were a threat were genuinely defensive with Nato....I think the Nato of the modern era became far more robust once the Berlin wall came down.....but all that was discussed early in the thread.

The launches Nato gave to Poland are dual usage I believe, and can be nuclear....which was a major issue for Putin as it puts Russia literally with minutes to respond.

When you read the bellicose commentary that gets used today I'm not as confident as you are as to common sense in modern day leaders....To me it's very plain that no one is willing to take the L....and like all wars it then comes down to blood and economic exhaustion. Unless realistic talks are going on behind closed doors I don't see any other result.

Biden yesterday, 'First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have the threat of a nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going. We are trying to figure out, What is Putinís off ramp? Where does he find a way out?
Heís not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is you might say, significantly underperforming'

That doesn't sound good to me.

For many people, this is a hill they are willing to die on.....I'll die on a hill over some things but this just isn't it for me.....This was avoidable.

Edited by Stirlingsays (07 Oct 2022 3.36am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Eaglehamster's Profile Eaglehamster Flag Storrington 07 Oct 22 5.05am Send a Private Message to Eaglehamster Add Eaglehamster as a friend

For many people, this is a hill they are willing to die on.....I'll die on a hill over some things but this just isn't it for me.....This was avoidable.

Putin, if permitted to 'win' by his constant threat of going nuclear, will surely be emboldened to use the same tactic to reclaim one by one all the former Soviet satellites that comprised the USSR.

I think there are many minds concentrating on how to avoid a nuclear conflict, without appeasing Putin and his empire rebuilding dreams. It beats me, I'm afraid.

Your notion that NATO is just as guilty as Russia is deeply flawed. The only country bullying others into joining NATO, is Russia.

 


I have now sufficient funds to last me the rest of my life. Provided I don't buy anything.

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 07 Oct 22 10.51am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'll highlight this because, while it's obvious to me and many, there are still those that like to paint this war as 'goodies v baddies' when the reality is that war means death for many many people who rarely deserve it. That's independent of which side does the killing.

Here is a typical example printed in our media, where the mask slips and they are prepared to print a reality instead of just focusing upon deaths inflicted by Russians. But they use the double standard of portraying this as justice rather than what it is.....killing people who didn't support Ukraine....and those areas have always had pro Russians living in them.

Both sides have been ethnically cleansing since 2014.

Sausage seller turned traitor.

 


COYP

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View silvertop's Profile silvertop Flag Portishead 07 Oct 22 11.46am Send a Private Message to silvertop Add silvertop as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'll highlight this because, while it's obvious to me and many, there are still those that like to paint this war as 'goodies v baddies' when the reality is that war means death for many many people who rarely deserve it. That's independent of which side does the killing.

Here is a typical example printed in our media, where the mask slips and they are prepared to print a reality instead of just focusing upon deaths inflicted by Russians. But they use the double standard of portraying this as justice rather than what it is.....killing people who didn't support Ukraine....and those areas have always had pro Russians living in them.

Both sides have been ethnically cleansing since 2014.

My understanding is that those with Russian background did not fair well after "freedom" for the Baltic states. Something not published widely.

Likewise, I suspect some Russians have had a rough time under Ukrainian rule.

Nevertheless, this case makes it relatively easy to take sides as one much larger aggressor sent their military in to a smaller sovereign state on OBVIOUSLY fabricated justifications and in clear breach of absolutely everything. By doing so, Ukraine automatically sided with the angels, regardless of its government and history. Why the western media are enjoying their recent set backs so much. Everyone likes the mouse that roars.

Incidentally, in terms of Russian motive, there has been much discussion of historic wrongs needing righting, the dream of reunification of what Russians feel is their land and so on. However, what I have heard is that the Donbas is practically floating on a sea of rare earth metals valued at $3-4 trillion (please check - that figure cannot be right, but if it is...). As such, and in terms of hypocrisy, it could be akin to the second gulf war where the US (and shamefully the UK) essentially invaded Iraq to seize the oil fields for Haliburton with the crumbs going to BP. In our case, the fabricated justification was WOMD.

 

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View silvertop's Profile silvertop Flag Portishead 07 Oct 22 11.59am Send a Private Message to silvertop Add silvertop as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Nato is basically the US's puppy....and the US are the only nation to use nukes...and that was to save losing troops invading the Japanese mainland.

I would agree that the kind of politicians we had while the Soviets were a threat were genuinely defensive with Nato....I think the Nato of the modern era became far more robust once the Berlin wall came down.....but all that was discussed early in the thread.

The launches Nato gave to Poland are dual usage I believe, and can be nuclear....which was a major issue for Putin as it puts Russia literally with minutes to respond.

When you read the bellicose commentary that gets used today I'm not as confident as you are as to common sense in modern day leaders....To me it's very plain that no one is willing to take the L....and like all wars it then comes down to blood and economic exhaustion. Unless realistic talks are going on behind closed doors I don't see any other result.

Biden yesterday, 'First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have the threat of a nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going. We are trying to figure out, What is Putinís off ramp? Where does he find a way out?
Heís not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is you might say, significantly underperforming'

That doesn't sound good to me.

For many people, this is a hill they are willing to die on.....I'll die on a hill over some things but this just isn't it for me.....This was avoidable.

Edited by Stirlingsays (07 Oct 2022 3.36am)

The US had every reason to believe that hundreds of thousands of their men would die securing Japan based on the conduct of Japanese forces to that point.

Ironically, countless more Japanese - both combatants and non-combatants - would have certainly also died. Far more than died in the 2 bombings.

The other important point is that the use provided clear and terrifying evidence to a (then) non-nuclear USSR not to step out of line. Remember, Stalin met with his chiefs in the autumn of 1944 with a plan to keep rolling their T-34s tanks all the way to the Azores thereby securing complete European dominance. Why not, Stalin said, we have 400 battle hardened divisions in the field. It was allegedly fear of the bomb that checked their progress at the Iron Curtain.

I still believe there will be a climb down on WOMD as that fear remains, but Putin will simply allow his various nutters to volubly advocate them in order to try and influence western thinking.

 

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View Frickin Saweet's Profile Frickin Saweet Flag South Cronx 07 Oct 22 2.41pm Send a Private Message to Frickin Saweet Add Frickin Saweet as a friend

Originally posted by Eaglehamster

For many people, this is a hill they are willing to die on.....I'll die on a hill over some things but this just isn't it for me.....This was avoidable.

Putin, if permitted to 'win' by his constant threat of going nuclear, will surely be emboldened to use the same tactic to reclaim one by one all the former Soviet satellites that comprised the USSR.

I think there are many minds concentrating on how to avoid a nuclear conflict, without appeasing Putin and his empire rebuilding dreams. It beats me, I'm afraid.

Your notion that NATO is just as guilty as Russia is deeply flawed. The only country bullying others into joining NATO, is Russia.

stop talking sense!

 

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 07 Oct 22 3.10pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Ok, there's a lot of points to discuss to with different posters. Things are busy at the moment, but I should be on later tonight.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 07 Oct 22 6.35pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Sausage seller turned traitor.

I know, dark comedy definitely exists.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 07 Oct 22 6.58pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by silvertop

My understanding is that those with Russian background did not fair well after "freedom" for the Baltic states. Something not published widely.

Likewise, I suspect some Russians have had a rough time under Ukrainian rule.

In my opinion some horrible and tragic war crimes have been perpetrated by the security services of both sides depending upon who controlled what ground.

There is a difference between supporting a side and being at war. I fear that this has meant little in this war....and I feel that as un-European, certainly against our tradition anyway.

Originally posted by silvertop

Nevertheless, this case makes it relatively easy to take sides as one much larger aggressor sent their military in to a smaller sovereign state on OBVIOUSLY fabricated justifications and in clear breach of absolutely everything. By doing so, Ukraine automatically sided with the angels, regardless of its government and history. Why the western media are enjoying their recent set backs so much. Everyone likes the mouse that roars.

I don't agree with the idea that Russian motivations are 'fabricated'...outside of all the 'Nazi' talk (a 'for the public' sideshow)

The deeper reasonings of keeping Nato away from the Ukraine certainly make a lot of sense to me. There are a lot of ethnic Russians in the East and South and they are prepared to fight.

Personally I think that both the US/West (because in truth this is a proxy war) and Russian motivations are quite clear. I certainly don't think this war started with the Russian invasion in February, because in reality it started after the coup in 2014.

However, I think we agree that there are certainly no angels here and that the 'goodies v baddies' narratives is strictly the mentality of the playground in a world that is far from it.


Originally posted by silvertop

Incidentally, in terms of Russian motive, there has been much discussion of historic wrongs needing righting, the dream of reunification of what Russians feel is their land and so on. However, what I have heard is that the Donbas is practically floating on a sea of rare earth metals valued at -4 trillion (please check - that figure cannot be right, but if it is...). As such, and in terms of hypocrisy, it could be akin to the second gulf war where the US (and shamefully the UK) essentially invaded Iraq to seize the oil fields for Haliburton with the crumbs going to BP. In our case, the fabricated justification was WOMD.

I think there is truth in this....I know what we have interests in Ukrainian farmland.

Do I think it represents the larger motivations, not really...I see it as a benefit to the West (otherwise they/we will never get paid back) or Russia (a significant material gain) rather than central (it is of course existential to Ukraine in its present state).

I'll say why I see it like that. Back in March/April Putin was willing to negotiate to end the war. From what I'm told that negotiation was that Russia would keep its pre-war Donbas territories including Crimea and withdraw its troops to Russia for a commitment from the Ukraine that they would stay out of Nato and the EU and cease attacks on pro Russian areas.

That would have meant that the Ukraine got to keep a fair chuck of the Donbas with its mines and rich resources. This isn't compatible with Russia only being interested in the Donbas's resources. I don't think that offer would have existed in that case.

In my view, in short Biden and Johnson wanted their war and insisted that Zelensky not negotiate.....because in my view the vision is regime change in Russia enabled by creating an existential economic war, which gradually wears them down.....I believe Biden has slipped up by actually saying that regime change was what he wanted and recent commentary in Nato has been pretty clear in my opinion.

I regard this as nightmarish and comes with huge risks that personally I regard as intolerable.

Edited by Stirlingsays (07 Oct 2022 7.01pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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