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Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 12 Oct 22 5.46pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I think if you compare Zelensky's statements in March/April to the statements in more recent months I think its obvious.

As for negotiations, let's just say that I don't think they have been going well. I think it's obvious that they have both decided to go onto exhaustion: they are all in.....and the side that 'loses' are going to be incredibly p1ssed off which then becomes very risky for all of us.

Personally I think you are taking about common sense taking over before then....Well I certainly pray you are right.....but I suggest SW19 that if common sense were the order of the day then this war would never have happened in the first place.

Edited by Stirlingsays (12 Oct 2022 2.02pm)

I doubt negotiations are going 'well' but the point is they will be ongoing no matter what it looks like.

Is anyone saying NATO isn't involved here? I'm not. Also don't see how this is controversial. It would be more controversial if NATO wasn't involved.

As for how involved, sure, pretty heavily. If I was in Zelenskys position I'd take all the help I can get and cede some control in order to do it. Seems pretty obvious to me.

The suggestion that he has zero agency, though, is to me an outlandish one.

 


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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 12 Oct 22 5.51pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Well yeah, for anyone taking note of the actual battleground it's obvious. It's the satellites, military equipment, training, troop and mission direction as Dan states and even the obvious funding of the Ukraine's economy and military budget....Zelensky is now just a puppet of the Americans....and sadly so is most of Europe who will now probably be buying its energy....at considerable mark up compared to what we had before.

Without Nato and the US the Ukraine would have lost this war before now.

Edited by Stirlingsays (12 Oct 2022 2.03pm)

Correct. But what you're not expanding on is the knock ons and outcome of that loss, short and long term. And it's not positive.

Of which there are many. It also creates the precedent of a 'West' / Europe that is pretty happy just to roll over when pushed. Listen, both outcomes are negative if we continue on this path vs just letting Ukraine die but ultimately I think keeping Russia honest wins out. Sure the medium term effect is Putin becoming more marginalised but IMO that would happen anyway if NATO etc backed down and let him have his way... he'd just push the envelope more and more until we ended up in this exact situation over another territory or incident.

 


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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 12 Oct 22 6.07pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

Correct. But what you're not expanding on is the knock ons and outcome of that loss, short and long term. And it's not positive.

Of which there are many. It also creates the precedent of a 'West' / Europe that is pretty happy just to roll over when pushed. Listen, both outcomes are negative if we continue on this path vs just letting Ukraine die but ultimately I think keeping Russia honest wins out. Sure the medium term effect is Putin becoming more marginalised but IMO that would happen anyway if NATO etc backed down and let him have his way... he'd just push the envelope more and more until we ended up in this exact situation over another territory or incident.

I must admit SW....I've been an atlanticist most of my life but recent years have made me far more skeptical....not anti but less inclined in believing that the US is a benign force.

I think actions for generations show that what the US fear in a united Europe where Russia and Germany and essentially Euroasia become a self-functioning economic unit rather than a fragmented one. What makes economic sense for us isn't the best course for them....while obviously I'll never be a globalist I think that when it comes to energy and trade this works out far better than the opposite.

I'm seeing the US as the opposing force to that.....they want their cake and eat it and apparently are telling us that their cake is good for us....I'm not so sure.

I wouldn't say I'm convinced of my position but I'm certainly on the fence in regards to it.

 


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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 12 Oct 22 6.18pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

Correct. But what you're not expanding on is the knock ons and outcome of that loss, short and long term. And it's not positive.

Of which there are many. It also creates the precedent of a 'West' / Europe that is pretty happy just to roll over when pushed. Listen, both outcomes are negative if we continue on this path vs just letting Ukraine die but ultimately I think keeping Russia honest wins out. Sure the medium term effect is Putin becoming more marginalised but IMO that would happen anyway if NATO etc backed down and let him have his way... he'd just push the envelope more and more until we ended up in this exact situation over another territory or incident.

While short term I'd agree that this cold war situation requires a lot of sensible people negotiating common sense pathways I'm thinking longer term.....because I regard a cold war as insanity and incompetence.

In fact I still can't quite believe that people who are meant to be at the top of the merit tree think all this is for the best.

Regardless, in the short term I think Nato obviously needs investment as do European countries...This was obvious many years ago but...well there you go...That said personally I regard the idea of Russia rolling its tanks down the streets as make believe musings of the highest order.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 12 Oct 22 8.14pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

While short term I'd agree that this cold war situation requires a lot of sensible people negotiating common sense pathways I'm thinking longer term.....because I regard a cold war as insanity and incompetence.

In fact I still can't quite believe that people who are meant to be at the top of the merit tree think all this is for the best.

Regardless, in the short term I think Nato obviously needs investment as do European countries...This was obvious many years ago but...well there you go...That said personally I regard the idea of Russia rolling its tanks down the streets as make believe musings of the highest order.

The point is, though, that we end up in this scenario no matter the choices. You either front up to Putin immediately or he takes advantage and pushes you until you do. This doesn't change until he's gone. His agenda is reclaiming former Russian territory (not really a secret) and he will continue to do this for as long as is sustainable. There's no silver bullet here. The cost? temporary instability. So be it.

 


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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 12 Oct 22 8.32pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

The point is, though, that we end up in this scenario no matter the choices. You either front up to Putin immediately or he takes advantage and pushes you until you do. This doesn't change until he's gone. His agenda is reclaiming former Russian territory (not really a secret) and he will continue to do this for as long as is sustainable. There's no silver bullet here. The cost? temporary instability. So be it.

This is the Democrat mainstream position and justification. However, it doesn't fit the facts on the ground.

Answer me this, if Putin's agenda is reclaiming former Russian territory then why hasn't he trained his army for it? He is seventy, he has had a long time to do that.

He would need millions of men, whereas he didn't even have enough to occupy the Ukraine....where apparently he's losing ground to a force of a couple of hundred thousand.

Indeed, even now he's only called up 300, 000 reservists....not millions. If Russia wanted to occupy its former states (some of which are in Nato and would mean nuclear war) then the reality is that he'd need to mass conscript like Stalin did. Putin has criticised Stalin and the Soviet Union many times, going back to that isn't realistic....No, he's focus was always the Ukraine.

I suggest the reality is that the 'Putin's coming for us' is a myth meant to frighten the normies into nodding along.

Edited by Stirlingsays (13 Oct 2022 3.27am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View PalazioVecchio's Profile PalazioVecchio Flag south pole 12 Oct 22 8.42pm Send a Private Message to PalazioVecchio Add PalazioVecchio as a friend

3 maps can explain the Russian mindset.

- Napoleon
- Hitler
- NATO

 


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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 12 Oct 22 9.13pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by PalazioVecchio

3 maps can explain the Russian mindset.

- Napoleon
- Hitler
- NATO

Pretty much.

Though they tend to be forgetful of the damage and oppression they themselves have done to the satellite states around them.


Edited by Stirlingsays (12 Oct 2022 9.15pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 13 Oct 22 3.13am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Tulsi Gabbard on Ukraine and the Military Industrial Complex.

[Link]

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Grumbles's Profile Grumbles 13 Oct 22 12.13pm Send a Private Message to Grumbles Add Grumbles as a friend

Originally posted by PalazioVecchio

3 maps can explain the Russian mindset.

- Napoleon
- Hitler
- NATO

Very western centric. Bigger than all of those is Genghis Khan.

 

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View eaglesdare's Profile eaglesdare Flag 13 Oct 22 12.49pm Send a Private Message to eaglesdare Add eaglesdare as a friend

The Ammendment in the European Parliamnet calling for all potential avenues for Peace in Ukraine was defeated by 436 votes to 118.

And that tells me all I need to know that the EU prefer War over any kind of Peace Talk!

 

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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 13 Oct 22 1.35pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

This is the Democrat mainstream position and justification. However, it doesn't fit the facts on the ground.

Answer me this, if Putin's agenda is reclaiming former Russian territory then why hasn't he trained his army for it? He is seventy, he has had a long time to do that.

He would need millions of men, whereas he didn't even have enough to occupy the Ukraine....where apparently he's losing ground to a force of a couple of hundred thousand.

Indeed, even now he's only called up 300, 000 reservists....not millions. If Russia wanted to occupy its former states (some of which are in Nato and would mean nuclear war) then the reality is that he'd need to mass conscript like Stalin did. Putin has criticised Stalin and the Soviet Union many times, going back to that isn't realistic....No, he's focus was always the Ukraine.

I suggest the reality is that the 'Putin's coming for us' is a myth meant to frighten the normies into nodding along.

Edited by Stirlingsays (13 Oct 2022 3.27am)

Too extreme

My point is that he appears to be always looking for an opportunity to do so, and when one arises, he takes it. If he made it his no1 reason for being that would be both impractical, tank his economy and probably his position and also start WWIII

It's part of his agenda. Not the sole agenda. Two very different things

He's not coming for anyone, really. Just looking to exploit opportunities to bang the imperialist drum and nick a few sq miles of soviet territory back when he can. Keeps the strongman thing alive, and he's not got much else to cling to now.

 


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