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March 28 2024 3.34pm

Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 09 Apr 23 4.10am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

I think we can say that the effects of Russia's winter mobilisation can now be reflected on. Despite the massive propaganda (much of it disappointingly emotive from an objective standpoint) pumped out by governmental and security services an inspection of what is happening on the ground shows that Russia have made gains in the Donbas region and made small gains in the north since their withdraw from the city of Kherson. As I write they hold roughly 70 percent of the city of Bakhmut, which has seen the most fighting and use of resources by both sides this winter.

Those gains are less than I personally expected from the numbers involved by it has to be seen within the context of massive spending and military supplies by NATO.

The Ukrainians are rumoured to be on the verge of a spring offensive, however this has been paid for almost exclusively by Nato and uses a large amount of their military equipment and ammo. It remains to be seen if Nato (which really is the Americans) will be willing to just continue to fund offensives rather than negotiations after this one unless it results in significant success. The republicans now control budgets and significant opposition to a long war is building.

Essentially the outcome of this war probably comes down to the same metric that ultimately decides all large scale wars.....exhaustion. Both in the economic and human sense.....How many people and how much high level equipment will be given away (it's never going to be paid back and some will end up with gangs/terrorists) and brought to bear on the war.

I think we recently saw with Macron's visit to China (they won't talk to Biden) where the real consequences from this war have led. I said early on that it was an incompetent disaster to join Russia and China together. Unfortunately for all of us in the west that's the result now and it's bad for all of us going forward. Considering that China are eyeing Taiwan (something else I've been correct on) it's definitely not in their interest to have a defeated Russia and stronger west......the nips aren't stupid...but our policy certainly has been.

I have my fingers firmly crossed that escalation doesn't happen beyond what we have already seen.....which I regard as far far too much already.

I regard it all as incompetent madness but (while I abhor the waste of life..many of whom are that generation's best people) I feel this year's military results will certainly play a large role in determining the end game.

I know we won't get it now but I feel the best outcome for Ukraine was last March's negotiated positions. But hey, apparently the same kind of people who thought the charge of the light brigade was a good idea seem to be the same type making decisions today.

Edited by Stirlingsays (09 Apr 2023 4.17am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Forest Hillbilly's Profile Forest Hillbilly Flag in a hidey-hole 10 Apr 23 2.16pm Send a Private Message to Forest Hillbilly Add Forest Hillbilly as a friend

I think 'The West' and NATO has been proven to be a fractured and uncoordinated alliance, devoid of any meaningful deterrence resistance, defence or dialogue.

'Bankrupt', is a word that comes to mind.

Meanwhile, two of the largest communist economies are thriving on their natural resources and manufacturing bases.

If you're going to raise the stakes, at least have a hand to back it up, because folding made NATO look impotent.

Edited by Forest Hillbilly (10 Apr 2023 5.17pm)

 


"The facts have changed", Rishi Sunak

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 17 Apr 23 3.29pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

The leaked defence intelligence papers suggest Ukraine can make modest gains at most in the current situation. Starting to seem like trench warfare in f***ed up places that no one really cares about. Every Ukrainian I've met in Ireland is staying here, so I guess they don't care too much either. Loads of them are young guys which seems a little strange to me.

 


Red and Blue Army!

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footythoughts Flag Beckenham 17 Apr 23 8.48pm

Originally posted by ASCPFC

The leaked defence intelligence papers suggest Ukraine can make modest gains at most in the current situation. Starting to seem like trench warfare in f***ed up places that no one really cares about. Every Ukrainian I've met in Ireland is staying here, so I guess they don't care too much either. Loads of them are young guys which seems a little strange to me.

As they've left their lives behind due to a war being waged on them, I would suggest that it's less not caring about their homeland and more coming to a similar conclusion to yourself - that it's a trench warefare situation, one in which given the choice they would prefer not to die in.

 

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 18 Apr 23 12.03pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

Originally posted by footythoughts

As they've left their lives behind due to a war being waged on them, I would suggest that it's less not caring about their homeland and more coming to a similar conclusion to yourself - that it's a trench warefare situation, one in which given the choice they would prefer not to die in.

Lucky my Grandparents didn't have that attitude. Then again no one was taking British refugees except for some women and children. Not many of them either, and not many countries.
I'm not asking these people to fight. If they don't want to die for their country, or risk dying or getting injured then I can understand that. Who does? Nevertheless it's not exactly the Ukraine the brave message we're getting from the media. These people are saying f*** you to Zelensky, not the Russians. There is no reason at all for them to be staying whatsoever. Except for their own preferences and personal economic reasons. I support Ukraine over Russia but surely it has to have the support of its own people first? Otherwise, it's all a bit pointless.
My mum was an evacuee from London. My Gran worked as a servant in Co Durham to look after her and her sister.

 


Red and Blue Army!

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View eaglesdare's Profile eaglesdare Flag 18 Apr 23 1.01pm Send a Private Message to eaglesdare Add eaglesdare as a friend

I see all the ukrainians are heading back to ukraine for thier holidays. must be terrible over there............

 

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View eaglesdare's Profile eaglesdare Flag 18 Apr 23 1.02pm Send a Private Message to eaglesdare Add eaglesdare as a friend

Originally posted by ASCPFC

Lucky my Grandparents didn't have that attitude. Then again no one was taking British refugees except for some women and children. Not many of them either, and not many countries.
I'm not asking these people to fight. If they don't want to die for their country, or risk dying or getting injured then I can understand that. Who does? Nevertheless it's not exactly the Ukraine the brave message we're getting from the media. These people are saying f*** you to Zelensky, not the Russians. There is no reason at all for them to be staying whatsoever. Except for their own preferences and personal economic reasons. I support Ukraine over Russia but surely it has to have the support of its own people first? Otherwise, it's all a bit pointless.
My mum was an evacuee from London. My Gran worked as a servant in Co Durham to look after her and her sister.

perhaps Russia are there to liberate ukrainian citizens....wouldnt be so far fetched.

 

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 18 Apr 23 1.49pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by eaglesdare

perhaps Russia are there to liberate ukrainian citizens....wouldnt be so far fetched.

In the parts of Ukraine that the Russians have occupied, many of the people there do see them as liberators. It is one of many aspects that our farcical 'free' press refuse to report on. Along with the constant shelling of civilian areas by Ukrainian forces.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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View Forest Hillbilly's Profile Forest Hillbilly Flag in a hidey-hole 18 Apr 23 2.14pm Send a Private Message to Forest Hillbilly Add Forest Hillbilly as a friend

Ukraine has fallen under the radar.
Much Like Sudan, Palestine, Yemen, NI and all those 'tricky' situations that don't make for good reading.

The only way out is by negotiation.

 


"The facts have changed", Rishi Sunak

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View eaglesdare's Profile eaglesdare Flag 18 Apr 23 2.29pm Send a Private Message to eaglesdare Add eaglesdare as a friend

Originally posted by ASCPFC

The leaked defence intelligence papers suggest Ukraine can make modest gains at most in the current situation. Starting to seem like trench warfare in f***ed up places that no one really cares about. Every Ukrainian I've met in Ireland is staying here, so I guess they don't care too much either. Loads of them are young guys which seems a little strange to me.

why wouldnt they? free house, benefits everything they ever dreamed! some amount of ukranian reg plates on the road. All big expensive mercs and range rovers.

 

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 18 Apr 23 2.47pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

On holiday I met a lovely kind lady she and her husband have put up a Ukrainian woman and her teenage daughter since the scheme started.

She did wonder though why they go back on holiday to the Ukraine.

I refrained from making any suggestions as I thought this might not be helpful.

Edited by Badger11 (18 Apr 2023 2.47pm)

 


One more point

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 18 Apr 23 6.03pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

It's been exceptionally bloody this winter and this spring and summer will exceed even that.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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