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Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 24 Jun 23 12.46pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan


Pretty much every oblast in Ukraine has been given orders to conscript men between 18 & something like 60, there was also a pause to regroup troops re the offensive, it's not going well.

The Ukrainian's have something like 60,000/70,000 troops they can throw at this offensive, it's honestly not enough.

Prighozin has been calling for extra ammunition & equipment for months, it appears they've been stockpiling what they were given & this rebel insurgency has been planned for a while, starting this on a Friday night is also smart given that most Russians stationed in Rostov will be pissed as a fart & off for the weekend.

I can't see anyway Wagner will be able to roll tanks all the way to Moscow without being completely devastated by airpower but every time I give the Russians credit they somehow manage to pluck incompetence from the jaws of victory so we'll have to see.

There may be US money washing around. In that case, others might join in. Not exactly unlikely for the Americans to be doing this.

 


Red and Blue Army!

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag The garden of England 24 Jun 23 1.02pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by ASCPFC

There may be US money washing around. In that case, others might join in. Not exactly unlikely for the Americans to be doing this.

Wagner do this for money. Maybe the west has promised a few bob to them. Who knows war is strange.

 

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View Ouzo Dan's Profile Ouzo Dan 24 Jun 23 1.18pm Send a Private Message to Ouzo Dan Add Ouzo Dan as a friend

Originally posted by ASCPFC

There may be US money washing around. In that case, others might join in. Not exactly unlikely for the Americans to be doing this.

He is a proper mercenary so you can't rule out the US buying him, or various other groups operating in Ukraine, I'd imagine Russia were paying him billions already but let's not pretend he is any sort of saviour, all this has come about because he thinks he can kill Ukrainian's far more efficiently than Shoigu/Gerasimov.

He has called for the use of Nukes.
A full declaration of war meaning Russia could throw the whole weight of its military at Ukraine.

In comparison Putin is the moderate

 


Sex Panther 60% of the time it works every time

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View Grumbles's Profile Grumbles 24 Jun 23 1.30pm Send a Private Message to Grumbles Add Grumbles as a friend

Too early to tell really.

It looks like a failed attempt to topple Prighozin by Shoigu. Putin has allowed in fighting as it drew the attention away from him but now it has backfired.

Wagner forces can cut off Russian forces in Ukraine from supplies and is the primary force in Russian geopolitical power projection on the ground.

Prighozin now has a short window to make things untenable for Putin or hope for wider munity amongst the rank and file within the occupying forces in Ukraine.

However Dan is correct, he makes Putin look like a moderate. Ican't see any opportunity of a detente.


Edited by Grumbles (24 Jun 2023 1.31pm)

 

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View Ouzo Dan's Profile Ouzo Dan 24 Jun 23 2.56pm Send a Private Message to Ouzo Dan Add Ouzo Dan as a friend

Wagner are two hours from Moscow.

I didn't realise how much Wagner had a tight grip on all Russian influence in Africa, Putin has lost all of it in 24 hours this might actually be the end of Putin however this pans out.

Putin's personal jet was tracked leaving Moscow before the transponder was turned off.

Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 3.03pm)

 


Sex Panther 60% of the time it works every time

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View Forest Hillbilly's Profile Forest Hillbilly Flag in a hidey-hole 24 Jun 23 3.24pm Send a Private Message to Forest Hillbilly Add Forest Hillbilly as a friend

It's all very well wanting Putin gone, but having Yevgeny Prigozhin as Russia's new Head of State, (or military CiC) in charge of the air force, Navy, and Russia's entire nuclear arsenal would be the worst possible outcome.

Edited by Forest Hillbilly (24 Jun 2023 3.25pm)

 


"The facts have changed", Rishi Sunak

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 24 Jun 23 3.27pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan

Wagner are two hours from Moscow.

I didn't realise how much Wagner had a tight grip on all Russian influence in Africa, Putin has lost all of it in 24 hours this might actually be the end of Putin however this pans out.

Putin's personal jet was tracked leaving Moscow before the transponder was turned off.

Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 3.03pm)

I would wait and see how matters pan out in the next 48 hours. It is clear that Wagner can cause issues but so what? A best it is a very nasty and problematic temper tantrum. But not a coup by any stretch of the imagination. They are a glorified security company. They might be able to cause mayhem but they cannot run a country.

Hazarding a guess this is all done and dusted inside of 72 hours. And it has to end with either Putin gone or Prigozhin dead. There is no way out of this for both of them to emerge through the smoke and mirrors.

The perception is that all the main institutions in the country are loyal to Putin and his government. Meaning this Wagner lot can kick and scream as much as they want and it ultimately ends up as nothing more than a squalid mutiny.

However, I have tended to call more wrong than right so far on this Ukraine/Russia issue so nothing would surprise me.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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View Ouzo Dan's Profile Ouzo Dan 24 Jun 23 3.58pm Send a Private Message to Ouzo Dan Add Ouzo Dan as a friend

Originally posted by Forest Hillbilly

It's all very well wanting Putin gone, but having Yevgeny Prigozhin as Russia's new Head of State, (or military CiC) in charge of the air force, Navy, and Russia's entire nuclear arsenal would be the worst possible outcome.

Edited by Forest Hillbilly (24 Jun 2023 3.25pm)

I cant stress this enough, if Prigozhin comes out on top, make plans to leave cities for a bit.

Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 4.07pm)

 


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View Ouzo Dan's Profile Ouzo Dan 24 Jun 23 4.07pm Send a Private Message to Ouzo Dan Add Ouzo Dan as a friend

Originally posted by Matov

I would wait and see how matters pan out in the next 48 hours. It is clear that Wagner can cause issues but so what? A best it is a very nasty and problematic temper tantrum. But not a coup by any stretch of the imagination. They are a glorified security company. They might be able to cause mayhem but they cannot run a country.

Hazarding a guess this is all done and dusted inside of 72 hours. And it has to end with either Putin gone or Prigozhin dead. There is no way out of this for both of them to emerge through the smoke and mirrors.

The perception is that all the main institutions in the country are loyal to Putin and his government. Meaning this Wagner lot can kick and scream as much as they want and it ultimately ends up as nothing more than a squalid mutiny.

However, I have tended to call more wrong than right so far on this Ukraine/Russia issue so nothing would surprise me.

See my previous comments, I am waiting.
Putin has however lost all African influence overnight and even if Prigozhin does die in the next 48 hours, Putin has been shown to be weak, he is in trouble.

Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 4.08pm)

 


Sex Panther 60% of the time it works every time

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 24 Jun 23 6.27pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan

I cant stress this enough, if Prigozhin comes out on top, make plans to leave cities for a bit.

Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 4.07pm)

I can't see it myself.....he would need the Russian military to switch. I see small scale fighting and negotiations.

Prigozhin couldn't hold Russia together.....it would certainly destroy Russia in Ukraine but also far more dangerous.

Yep, very dangerous in terms of the break up of Russia and nuclear unstabliity.

Putin is far more predictable than Prigozhin.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 24 Jun 23 7.00pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Reports coming through:

Lukashenko held talks with Prigozhin in agreement with Putin press service of the President of the Republic of Belarus.

Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed persons of the Wagner company on the territory of Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tensions with security guarantees for the Wagner PMC fighters.

According to a new Prigozhin voice message - 'We came within 200km of Moscow without shedding a drop of blood, now there is the possibility of blood being shed, understanding this responsibility we will turn around our convoys and return to our bases.'

Edited by Stirlingsays (24 Jun 2023 7.00pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 24 Jun 23 7.18pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Utterly bizarre 24 hours. The talk of a 'coup' was ludicrous from the get-go for all kinds of reasons but even so, this is now beyond bizarre.

I still see no upside to Wagner. They return to their barracks and Putin will move against them. He has to.

All I can think of is that Prigozhin was conned into thinking that there would be a mass uprising from the Russian army in his favour. And he realised it was not happening hence the backtracking.

But who knows? A crazy day in what is an insane situation.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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