If you two are correct (that the bookies odds are only based on level of betting once the season has started), which I don't believe is true, then how about the estimations by 538 here: [Link]
I know you are a basically a genius Willo but I am pretty sure that this analysis is a lot more sophisticated and impartial than yours/ It has us with a 6% chance of going down.

If you are so certain your model is better than this or the bookies - as someone said, you could earn a fortune betting against us.

I talked about one specific incident, which was on Saturday morning, in conversation with a Brighton supporter.

In terms of stats one can use them to state what has actually happened (IE no goals in the last 3 games etc) but also use them for reasons of prognostication and interpret them how one sees fit.

One can talk about not playing teams in the "Top six" etc etc but as Hodgson rightly explained after we played Liverpool, one shouldn't assume that the upcoming 6 games will be easier than the previous 6 games.

I have done some analysis into the probabilities relating to our forthcoming games (I have for some weeks) not only based on stats but other factors as well and they have all pointed to us in the bottom 3.

I appreciate this is a very negative view but all I am doing is expressing what I genuinely believe.Hopefully my analysis is awry and I am totally wrong.

Edited by Willo (09 Apr 2018 11.42am)

The day our fate is decided this season with us remaining in the Premier, will be cause for celebration.
More importantly a boring old dullard who continually posts negative tripe everyday about our chances of survival will disappear for a while, back to his first love NSC.

I have been convinced for a while.

And how have I been "Discredited" ? All I have done is to give my opinion as to our prospects.
I've NOT "Hidden" or sat on the fence - I have been forthright about our chances and if, for some reason I am wrong I expect brickbats will come my way, all for the fact that as a human being I was proved wrong.

I haven't got into debating with willo because I see him as a "the glass is half empty instead of the glass is half full" kinda man, a worrier, a pessimist. I am sorry Willo you assessment of the fact we will be relegated is based on studying our form, inability to score, inability to defend etc, etc. but have you studied the form of the teams around us. Do you know that Huddersfield have scored only once in 8 league games and the only goal they scored was from a poor back pass. Did you know that the only team that Stoke have actually beaten in the last 16 games is Huddersfield. Did you know that Huddersfield's last three games are away to City, Chelsea and home to Arsenal. Did you know that that Southampton has a six pointer against Swansea which if the lose and we win would put us 7 points above them or two points above Swansea. Did you know that Brighton's last five fixtures after us are against, Tottenham, Burnley, Man City, Man United, and Liverpool and they may not get another point. Bookies use all these factors when analysing odds. My own feeling is that based on current form WBA, Stoke and Huddersfield are the three sides going down