Surely all Boris has to do is absolutely nothing. We have given notice to the EU that we are leaving on 31st October and if we haven't managed to sort out a deal to take to Parliament we will just leave without one

I suspect it isn't going to be that easy but I hope you're right.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

I hope that's right.....I could see them extending it and then parliament forcing a vote to accept the extension.

I suppose the government could just ignore the vote if the remainers won it? I don't know.

It's not boring anyway.

Edited by Stirlingsays (29 Jul 2019 4.54pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

My gut tells me that there will be a Theresa May-like deal with a Boris stamp on it. I still have no idea really though.. and three years in!

Please explain what they could do about it? Vote of no confidence? Bring it on, as Labour have gone, I suspect some of the Tory Brexit busters will either be de-selected or lose their seats (those whose constituents voted to leave).
I can forsee the Brexit party targeting seats in, mainly Labour constituencies, where they voted to leave but the MP has tried to derail Brexit eg Yvette Cooper with the Tories probably not even contesting them

Decided to stick my toe back into the political waters now that the mud has cleared a little.

For me the key to understanding it all is the Dominic Cummings/Gove partnership in essentially taking control of the No Deal preparations. One hell of a combination and sending a crystal clear message. This is a s*** or bust, in less than 100 days, piece of political theatre.

Johnson is a student of history. And knows that his entire political legacy rests on one single date. October 31st, 2019.

If we are still in the EU come November 1st he will be remembered as a failure. Nothing else matters to him now.

He has effectively burnt all the Remain bridges. His insistence on not sitting down to talk to the EU until it drops the backstop means he is gambling everything on it either backing down or else Parliament forces him, and it will require Conservative rebels to effectively collapse their own Government, to fight an election on a simple No Deal narrative.

And that is winnable. Lose all the rebels, replace them with people willing to do what their manifesto promises and do a deal with the Brexit Party. And Johnson strolls an October election. 30-40 seat majority. Maybe even stand aside in certain seats for Brexit candidates. With a Labour Party torn to bits as the Lib-Dems effectively cripple them. No way they will combine because Labours northern MP's will be up in arms. A suicide pact for Labour.

My own prediction is that Corbyn will bottle calling a vote of no confidence and that Johnson might get us out on October 31st on the back of Labour rebels abstaining on votes designed to stop at it.

In terms of the EU, I suspect they will not blink until at least the middle of September but Brexit will be decided by the end of that month.

Also interesting noises from Ireland. A hard-border destroys them. 85% of their exports have to cross it compared to less than half of 1% of ours. That reality is starting to hit home.

I was wary of Johnson. Still am. But the makeup of his cabinet along with that Cummings/Gove combination has caused me to concede that perhaps, and it is a huge perhaps, he might actually deliver on what he has said he would.

Halloween is Johnsons date with destiny. No other way of looking at it. Might be worth stocking up on the fireworks early because it could be a wonderful night!

But if November 1st dawns with that s***ty flag not having one less star, Brexit is over. A truly historic few weeks await us.

Edited by Matov (31 Jul 2019 12.09am)

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.