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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 04 Apr 20 2.32pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

I certainly think that we should be doing what we’re doing but not for long. If people obeyed the rules the lockdown will be over and the sooner the better. When I hear someone (David Buik) who’s gained more from capitalism and is at the very front of the information say we should be doing what we’re doing but it has to be short lived then I feel even more confident that it’s the right thing to do.

It sounds like this is being discussed by every LBC host today so it’s going to come into discussion, debate and public conscience. Let’s just hope that it doesn’t give people the idea that they take it upon themselves to end the lockdown so we don’t get to where the end goal is.

I thought you agreed on A lockdown anyway, but not a long one. Mid April is what I remember you saying. Mine is a bit further along than that. A bit, but not so far along that poverty causes real hardship, deaths and more of them than the disease. We aren’t that far apart. Maybe you thought that from my agreement with DanH on the spike of deaths we would’ve faced. Many more cases, more healthy people without enough respirators would’ve died and the knock on effects we’ve discussed before.

You’re ignoring the elephant in the room, which is it doesn’t really matter how long lockdown lasts for or not. If there isn’t a vaccine, there will simply be a second wave of infection, and then a second round of lockdown. As I’ve listed before, my take is that will happen September/October after a brief period of respite. Going further I think they already know that it will happen like this but have to lift it for a while to prevent people going mad/losing out too much. Then back to where we were until a vaccine appears in 2021

 


Did you know? 98.0000001% of people are morons.

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 04 Apr 20 2.39pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

You’re ignoring the elephant in the room, which is it doesn’t really matter how long lockdown lasts for or not. If there isn’t a vaccine, there will simply be a second wave of infection, and then a second round of lockdown. As I’ve listed before, my take is that will happen September/October after a brief period of respite. Going further I think they already know that it will happen like this but have to lift it for a while to prevent people going mad/losing out too much. Then back to where we were until a vaccine appears in 2021

I have a suspicion that a vaccine, probably several will be rushed out. I'll have a punt at Xmas for mass production at the latest. In our hands not long after.

I have another suspicion that treatments even before then will become more and more effective at driving deaths down.

As you can see I have several suspicions.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 04 Apr 20 2.46pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

Unsure if this has been covered yet, but the thread is getting too sedate so why not.

I see the usual morons are out and about trying to equate 5G masts with Coronavirus.

Incredible. Essentially just repackaging the mobile phone, then 2G, 3G, 4G dross for... 5G! People think I’m unduly harsh to the general population but Christ alive. The earth is flat!

Hopefully this episode is a good opportunity for some ruthless natural selection to occur.

Edited by SW19 CPFC (04 Apr 2020 1.45pm)

I think I saw Alex Jones going on about that.

Why can't we just stick with blaming undercooked bats?

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag The garden of England 04 Apr 20 2.52pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays


From here, considering the paths that have been taken, it would probably be mid April.

However, my position was for lockdown only for the time it took to implement what isolation was possible for the vulnerable and NHS funding for provision, get the social distance message out and set up mandated hygiene systems.

That would have seen us out of lockdown far earlier and minimized what's coming far more.

We don't agree on actions based on 'the curve' which appears to be yours and the current majority position.

But that's ok, I understand why you and others take that position. You think there would be hundreds of thousands dead otherwise. The thing is that other countries have taken far more liberal approaches so I guess we will find out. Sweden haven't implemented anything like the economic or police state like restrictions we have and I suppose time will show whether as a percentage the fears of yourself and many others are realised there.....but at the moment they have a lower death per million than us.

Edited by Stirlingsays (04 Apr 2020 2.31pm)


Sweden has more space with less people so comparing to us isnt a fair reflection.
Stockholm might compare to parts of london so there's the market. I do think in two weeks or so they will be seeing a rise in cases and deaths though. This bug doesnt care who you are. Get too close to a carrier or touch your mucus trails with
A bit of virus and bingo.

 

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Tom-the-eagle Flag Croydon 04 Apr 20 2.57pm

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

You’re ignoring the elephant in the room, which is it doesn’t really matter how long lockdown lasts for or not. If there isn’t a vaccine, there will simply be a second wave of infection, and then a second round of lockdown. As I’ve listed before, my take is that will happen September/October after a brief period of respite. Going further I think they already know that it will happen like this but have to lift it for a while to prevent people going mad/losing out too much. Then back to where we were until a vaccine appears in 2021

Completely agree.

All the time there is no vaccine then there is no way we can go back to what we used to know as normality.

I’m guessing that lockdown will only be particularly, but not fully lifted in a month or so, once ventilators and testing kits have been manufactured in far greater numbers.

It would not surprise me to see things like daily testing of all children before every school day and maybe temperature test before entering certain shops etc.

Goodness knows when things like football or festivals etc will reopen.

Scary times

 


"It feels much better than it ever did, much more sensitive." John Wayne Bobbit

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 04 Apr 20 3.04pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst

Sweden has more space with less people so comparing to us isnt a fair reflection.
Stockholm might compare to parts of london so there's the market. I do think in two weeks or so they will be seeing a rise in cases and deaths though. This bug doesnt care who you are. Get too close to a carrier or touch your mucus trails with
A bit of virus and bingo.

I hear what you're saying and I agree deaths will continue. But as a competing view I'd say that most of the UK outside of the cities isn't packed with people either though. And as stated previously Japan is far more densely packed than the UK with Toyko much more than London.

What you have to weigh is how dangerous this is with the economic price you're paying for it....and the length of time that continues for.

The virus is going to be around pretty much forever now and will continue to kill the very weak even after we get the vaccine....because even flu does that.


Edited by Stirlingsays (04 Apr 2020 3.05pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 04 Apr 20 3.16pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays


From here, considering the paths that have been taken, it would probably be mid April.

However, my position was for lockdown only for the time it took to implement what isolation was possible for the vulnerable and NHS funding for provision, get the social distance message out and set up mandated hygiene systems.

That would have seen us out of lockdown far earlier and minimized what's coming far more.

We don't agree on actions based on 'the curve' which appears to be yours and the current majority position.

But that's ok, I understand why you and others take that position. You think there would be hundreds of thousands dead otherwise. The thing is that other countries have taken far more liberal approaches so I guess we will find out. Sweden haven't implemented anything like the economic or police state like restrictions we have and I suppose time will show whether as a percentage the fears of yourself and many others are realised there.....but at the moment they have a lower death per million than us.

[Link]

Edited by Stirlingsays (04 Apr 2020 2.31pm)

I was corrected yesterday that Sweden cannot he compared with brits due to Sweden’s lower population per square km and rural living across the country. The majority of cases in Britain are in cities and large towns or from travelling. Then there’s things like stupidly letting Cheltenham go ahead, even though I had a very good festival betting wise from start to finish. I didn’t know I would before.

I don’t think there would be hundreds of thousands of deaths. Imperial college etc have stated that’s the likelihood. Then there’s the NHS being overrun etc etc and people who are surviving via respirating equipment that may not if there were thousands more cases and no lockdown.

Trump went from trying to let it run its course to intervening and again the problem is in areas with large populations.

I see your view a bit clearer now on getting things setup, but they’re far from that anyway (provision of NHS equipment, not just funding)
PPE no. Test kits no. God take your pick there.

But why are you prepared for and in personal lockdown if you don’t think there should be a lockdown?

 


COYP

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 04 Apr 20 3.22pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst


Sweden has more space with less people so comparing to us isnt a fair reflection.
Stockholm might compare to parts of london so there's the market. I do think in two weeks or so they will be seeing a rise in cases and deaths though. This bug doesnt care who you are. Get too close to a carrier or touch your mucus trails with
A bit of virus and bingo.

Yes I think Sweden are in a bit of denial in their cities. Outside of the city they’re whatever the Swedish is for hunky dory (probably fancy a partner swap in our sauna), just as we are out in our sticks, and the further out you go, the better the behaviour.

 


COYP

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 04 Apr 20 3.24pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Tom-the-eagle

Completely agree.

All the time there is no vaccine then there is no way we can go back to what we used to know as normality.

I’m guessing that lockdown will only be particularly, but not fully lifted in a month or so, once ventilators and testing kits have been manufactured in far greater numbers.

It would not surprise me to see things like daily testing of all children before every school day and maybe temperature test before entering certain shops etc.

Goodness knows when things like football or festivals etc will reopen.

Scary times

I would agree with you and say it’s a good post, only 100,000 a day tests or whatever it is doesn’t get anywhere close to testing the working population of however many dozen million people.

 


COYP

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 04 Apr 20 3.35pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

I was corrected yesterday that Sweden cannot he compared with brits due to Sweden’s lower population per square km and rural living across the country. The majority of cases in Britain are in cities and large towns or from travelling. Then there’s things like stupidly letting Cheltenham go ahead, even though I had a very good festival betting wise from start to finish. I didn’t know I would before.

I don’t think there would be hundreds of thousands of deaths. Imperial college etc have stated that’s the likelihood. Then there’s the NHS being overrun etc etc and people who are surviving via respirating equipment that may not if there were thousands more cases and no lockdown.

Trump went from trying to let it run its course to intervening and again the problem is in areas with large populations.

I see your view a bit clearer now on getting things setup, but they’re far from that anyway (provision of NHS equipment, not just funding)
PPE no. Test kits no. God take your pick there.

But why are you prepared for and in personal lockdown if you don’t think there should be a lockdown?

It's a good and interesting post.

With Sweden, I think we are seeing people looking for excuses. The reality is that they are similar Europeans with similar cultural practices and while it's a lower population it's also far smaller as a country and the pictures from there you can see life going on much more normally with groups of people.

Hence the death rate per million is....I think...a fair comparison. My view is that the worst situation is for the elderly to be in regular social contact....that's why Italy is faring so badly due to higher levels of inter-generational housing.

In terms of the cities, we know that due to higher social distancing difficulties the problem and contagion will be worse. In China they locked down Wuhan province with it's one city and nowhere else. Locking down parts of the country that are far less densely populated...from my perspective.... is just compounding the economic problem.

As for the NHS I'd read that a couple of weeks into this they had secured 33,000 beds. As for specialist equipment that's a problem all around the world.

In terms of Trump I think he very much wants to go with 'herd immunity' but different states will take different paths regardless. I think with Trump this crises kind of sums up how his presidency has gone....He's out sourced it because he doesn't care that much....he's all about trade and foreign policy. However the spending involved and aftermath will decide his presidency....though he's banking on being the 'father figure' in the crises...and to be fair, at the moment that's doing well for his poll numbers.

I have my fingers crossed that as previously stated MMT might just save us and after lockdown the markets soar and jobs come back massively fast.... like some Trump like magic.

We all want that because it'll help everyone.


Edited by Stirlingsays (04 Apr 2020 3.39pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View SW19 CPFC's Profile SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 04 Apr 20 3.48pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I have a suspicion that a vaccine, probably several will be rushed out. I'll have a punt at Xmas for mass production at the latest. In our hands not long after.

I have another suspicion that treatments even before then will become more and more effective at driving deaths down.

As you can see I have several suspicions.

I see where you’re going here - I’d be lying if I said it was impossible but unlikely? For sure.

Yes vaccine could be ready by Xmas theoretically, but then there’s a few issues with that. It takes a while to mass produce, and then it takes even longer to administer across the population. And then on top of that, will it even be tested properly? I’m think anti vaxxers are complete idiots but even I, of reasonably sound mind, would be wary about shooting up with what will effectively be an unproven vaccine. Not sure if you have read any of Ben Goldacre (bad science etc. Again highly recommended) but as we know there have been plenty of examples of pharma rushing stuff out or using bent scientists and so on to push products to market that years down the line have caused immense harm. Obviously there’s a risk balancing scenario to be explored here but when people go ‘Oh vaccine, will be fine’ it’s way more murky than that.

 


Did you know? 98.0000001% of people are morons.

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View PalazioVecchio's Profile PalazioVecchio Flag south pole 04 Apr 20 4.00pm Send a Private Message to PalazioVecchio Add PalazioVecchio as a friend

The economic and financial implications of Corona ?


It will be a number of times more significant, to the World Economy, than October 1929.

Bigger than the Wall Street Crash.

 


Eze Peasy at Anfield....

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