Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?
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 Spiderman  Horsham 15 Mar 22 3.57pm |
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Originally posted by steeleye20
'Jezza' voted for the Trident deterrent. Salisbury?
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BlueJay  UK 15 Mar 22 4.40pm |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
For sure we all lose, at least in the short to mid-term. Ultimately, if a new era of reality emerges, we could win something. Ukraine could be seen as a watershed moment. I don't see a China/Russia "block" arising from this. I think China are very uncomfortable about Putin's behaviour and surprised at the west's reaction. The Chinese are much more measured and pragmatic than the Russian's under Putin. They need us as consumers. Russia doesn't consume nearly so much as we do. China is now the dominant partner in that relationship and may well, in time, expand its influence in Russia. It will certainly use its natural resources. This is the Chinese century, just as the 20th was the USA's, but that doesn't mean they want to wage wars. They want us to remain as customers, not see us obliterated. China doesn't need a block, it is a block! Ultimately though it all brings home the importance of being energy independent, which is more than possible. As much as people like to moan about the teething problems with that inevitability, they clearly overlooked the much more pressing issue of supply issues from other countries and the politics and world events that can 'really' raise prices. As opposed to smaller temporary rises for initiatives and options that form a path to giving those who have us 'over a barrel' the middle finger. Arguably that's one aspect that Trump had a point on. Looking close to home (or indeed at home!) for energy needs. Though of course oil is one limited, and temporary option, and a wider look at renewables, nuclear and so on is also needed. Still, the overriding point is that with a sensible and deliberate push, it eliminates the need to rely on other nations, something that often comes with a whole host of problems. Edited by BlueJay (15 Mar 2022 4.45pm)
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| Ouzo Dan 15 Mar 22 6.31pm |
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A couple of excellent videos worth watching. The first is the role the Azov regiment plays in Ukraine This one about potential escalation Its worth noting too that Iran launched a missile strike against the US consulate in Iraq just the other day & the US failed to act, this to me is quite telling. Edited by Ouzo Dan (15 Mar 2022 6.37pm)
Sex Panther 60% of the time it works every time |
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 15 Mar 22 6.45pm |
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Originally posted by BlueJay
China doesn't need a block, it is a block! Ultimately though it all brings home the importance of being energy independent, which is more than possible. As much as people like to moan about the teething problems with that inevitability, they clearly overlooked the much more pressing issue of supply issues from other countries and the politics and world events that can 'really' raise prices. As opposed to smaller temporary rises for initiatives and options that form a path to giving those who have us 'over a barrel' the middle finger. Arguably that's one aspect that Trump had a point on. Looking close to home (or indeed at home!) for energy needs. Though of course oil is one limited, and temporary option, and a wider look at renewables, nuclear and so on is also needed. Still, the overriding point is that with a sensible and deliberate push, it eliminates the need to rely on other nations, something that often comes with a whole host of problems. Edited by BlueJay (15 Mar 2022 4.45pm) Quite right! The comment was made because of the suggestion that the biggest fear is the emergence of a "China/Russia" block, whereas I have heard another opinion that the only country ever likely to invade Russia is China. Which I very much hope isn't true, either. Apparently, the Chinese people are not being shown pictures of the devastation the Russians are causing, and their media are full-on blaming the USA for causing this by "allowing Nato to threaten Russian security". So Putin propaganda in Beijing too. Nevertheless, the Chinese leadership is savvy. It might disapprove of western decadence, but it won't want to kill the golden goose. They seem to me to be the best hope we have of reigning Putin in, allowing the sanction to then bite and for the Russian people to eventually sort themselves out. Containment until change can happen seems the safest option.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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| BlueJay UK 15 Mar 22 6.56pm |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
Nevertheless, the Chinese leadership is savvy. It might disapprove of western decadence, but it won't want to kill the golden goose. They seem to me to be the best hope we have of reigning Putin in, allowing the sanction to then bite and for the Russian people to eventually sort themselves out. Containment until change can happen seems the safest option. Yes, they're currently playing both sides, and even in a situation where they were deemed somewhat more pro Russian it would be incredibly lopsided, and more akin to being held back, which is no doubt how Putin chooses to perceive the West currently. The exchange of one problem for another. Clearly nobody knows precisely how things will pan out, but it certainly appears at minimum that Putin has royally screwed over his own people. Yes, hopefully sanctions will have an impact significant enough that a fair solution to end this madness is agreed upon.
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 HKOwen  Hong Kong 15 Mar 22 10.47pm |
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Originally posted by steeleye20
'Jezza' voted for the Trident deterrent. With all the sincerity he could muster
Responsibility Deficit Disorder is a medical condition. Symptoms include inability to be corrected when wrong, false sense of superiority, desire to share personal info no else cares about, general hubris. It's a medical issue rather than pure arrogance. |
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| BlueJay UK 16 Mar 22 12.19am |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
I keep hearing this line that the Ukraine gave up nukes. Firstly those were soviet nukes housed in the Ukraine, so the argument that they were Ukrainian is far fetched. Secondly they had no control of those nukes as they were in systems controlled in Russia. They would have had to deconstruct the soviet systems, which considering they weren't on bad terms with Russia wasn't a realistic reality. So 'far fetched' that they signed an agreement pledging to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine if they gave them up. I thought agreements (as in the NATO one) were what was to be valued and stood by? Some comments here are unfortunate self flagellation and fear at Russian threats that would still be present even if they took over Ukraine and set their sights elsewhere. We are where we are. There is zero wrong with our basic level of support for the Ukrainian people to give them a fighting chance. If Russia are bombing hospitals day after day (which is something actively happening 'now' as matter of importance unlike this panicked 'bio lab' Russia propaganda push that is lapped up) the deficit of movement towards peace is a ball in their court. Putin doesn't respect weakness and is fueled by purpose, not by playing nice because we've been 'fair'. Edited by BlueJay (16 Mar 2022 12.37am)
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| BlueJay UK 16 Mar 22 1.01am |
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"Russian prosecutors have called for jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny to serve 13 years in prison for the new fraud charges he is facing. The opposition politician is currently on trial at the prison colony outside Moscow where he is already serving a two-and-a-half year sentence. Navalny was jailed last year after surviving a nerve agent attack that he blames on the Russian government. In this latest trial, prosecutors have requested that the Putin critic be sent to a "strict regime" prison which would mean harsher conditions than he is in currently. "You can't put everyone in prison. Even if you ask for 113 years, you won't scare me or others like me," Navalny said in court according to his team." Quite something how many shows of strength and bravery there have been of late, both from the Ukrainian people and Russians who are willing to stand up to what they see despite immense personal cost. Of course Navalny is no stranger to that. The day someone takes out Putin will be a celebrated day of accountability that has been a long time coming.
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| Stirlingsays 16 Mar 22 5.25am |
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Originally posted by BlueJay
So 'far fetched' that they signed an agreement pledging to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine if they gave them up. I thought agreements (as in the NATO one) were what was to be valued and stood by? Some comments here are unfortunate self flagellation and fear at Russian threats that would still be present even if they took over Ukraine and set their sights elsewhere. We are where we are. There is zero wrong with our basic level of support for the Ukrainian people to give them a fighting chance. If Russia are bombing hospitals day after day (which is something actively happening 'now' as matter of importance unlike this panicked 'bio lab' Russia propaganda push that is lapped up) the deficit of movement towards peace is a ball in their court. Putin doesn't respect weakness and is fueled by purpose, not by playing nice because we've been 'fair'. Edited by BlueJay (16 Mar 2022 12.37am) If you think agreements made by governments have to be honoured then there is plenty of transportation available for you to transport yourself to the Ukraine and honour them. I'd even respect that decision while thinking it was pointless to throw your life away before you had to....and I'm hearing that the agreement you refer to wasn't ratified in either the US or Uk. What some bureaucratic d1cks wrote twenty odd years ago to get what they wanted is for the birds. I didn't know about that....did anyone here? If nations commit themselves to fight I want that huge decision to be debated first.....seems like it should have been because it's turned out to be little more than platitudes. If I have to I'll stand and accept millions die for the Nato covenant.....not one inch more than that, and not one inch less. You and anyone else who feels differently are free to live their principles. You also talk about Russian propaganda, yet in my view, you appear to think that whatever comes out of the state department and onto news media is purity itself. I'll say it again, I don't think you know what is true from untrue, yet you are happy to criticise others out of some personal certainty. In my view, if there isn't a peace agreement then the only sensible options I see for Russia are a complete withdraw, ....which obviously we all want but we know that's highly unlikely as it would lead to Putin falling. The other option, failing a peace agreement is to take all of the Ukraine...as without a demilitarized Ukraine it's a guerrilla war, which just repeats the failed strategies of the west in Iraq and Afghanistan and bleeds them over time.....If they take all of the Ukraine I imagine they will be ruthless and countless people will die. Personally I view the Russians sharing a border with Poland as a very very bad idea.....The Poles...quite rightly in my view, hate the Russian state for historical reasons and it would be a very bad idea for all of us as fighting would be likely at some point. For this reason I view a peace agreement as more likely than not. I think those with sense in the Pentagon.....know this....though that won't be Harris or Biden....Especially Harris...I doubt she even knows Poland's history with Russia. I have my fingers crossed for a peace agreement as soon as possible. I also have my fingers crossed on tensions reducing between the west and Russia as I think you guys are completely wrong on thinking a Russia/China block isn't likely or particularly harmful....Also there's this idea that the Europe take on this war is shared around the world, when the reality is most aren't going to change their relations because of it.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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Forest Hillbilly  in a hidey-hole 16 Mar 22 6.12am |
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There were a few notable UK journalists over the past few decades, who did proper research into stories that were going to fall out of the headlines. So if you think Western Governments and 'freedom of the press' are any different from Russia, then you might need to re-think. The thing that has temporarily 'saved' the Russian journalist, was the fact it was picked up by Western media. Meanwhile Boris hopes to get a deal for oil from the Saudi's, so we are not reliant on such an inhumane and barbaric country such as,..er,...Russia. Morality ,.....just when you thought it couldn't get any lower.
"The facts have changed", Rishi Sunak |
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 16 Mar 22 9.16am |
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Originally posted by Ouzo Dan
A couple of excellent videos worth watching. The first is the role the Azov regiment plays in Ukraine This one about potential escalation Its worth noting too that Iran launched a missile strike against the US consulate in Iraq just the other day & the US failed to act, this to me is quite telling. Edited by Ouzo Dan (15 Mar 2022 6.37pm) Thanks. The information about the Azov regiment was new to me, interesting and chilling too. Reflecting on it, I think it's not surprising to learn. These attitudes exist everywhere, though fortunately usually as a tiny minority. In Ukraine, having the Russians on your doorstep threatening you, occupying your land and now this, it's unsurprising that they appeal to nationalist sentiment and attract high numbers. Putin must be their best recruitment sergeant ever. I can well imagine Putin using this as propaganda in Russia and focussing on them as what he is fighting. Captured Azov fighters will be forced to "confess" and their phones raided for "evidence". It's dangerous too. If the suggestions I am reading today about a settlement beginning to look possible, which would enable Putin to save face and claim a victory, these people are unlikely to accept it, blame their government for a sell out and resort to an ongoing guerilla war. Keeping them onside is going to be a challenge. Ukraine could end up with a civil war which, if the Azov won, which they could with the weapons they now have, would change our own relationship with them. So lots of unknowns still to be resolved. The escalation video didn't add much, in my opinion The missile strike in Iraq was reported here. It didn't hit, or even get close to a building under construction, so has been dismissed as unimportant.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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| BlueJay UK 16 Mar 22 11.31am |
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Originally posted by Forest Hillbilly
Meanwhile Boris hopes to get a deal for oil from the Saudi's, so we are not reliant on such an inhumane and barbaric country such as,..er,...Russia. Morality ,.....just when you thought it couldn't get any lower. Government is fine with turning a blind eye as long as the stink of what we do doesn't cause a stink too close to home. Beyond oil, look at the vast amount of weapons we've sold the Saudis and how they are used.
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