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Why is this a BBC top story? (LOCKED)

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cryrst Flag The garden of England 09 Jan 20 8.40pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Forecasts = predict,speculate,
Fundamentally wissie its guesswork.
Finally I agree with your word.

 

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Teddy Eagle Flag 09 Jan 20 8.41pm Send a Private Message to Teddy Eagle Add Teddy Eagle as a friend

Third world? Before long that will be an aspiration for large parts of east London.

 

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 09 Jan 20 11.05pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst

Forecasts = predict,speculate,
Fundamentally wissie its guesswork.
Finally I agree with your word.

You always dismiss forecasts this way, as though they are of no more value than spinning a coin or some other random guesswork.

They aren't! Forecasts are made after the careful analysis of information. They can, of course, be wrong but the point of having them is to be able to weigh up the probabilities. If all the forecasts point in one direction then there must be a very good chance that that direction is the most likely one to be taken.

Hoping they are wrong is beyond just being optimistic. It is downright irresponsible.

As a kid the weather forecasts were just speculation and quite often wrong. These days they are almost always very accurate. Why? Because we have got better at them. The data is better and powerful computer models can look at all the variables and determine what will happen. Economic forecasting is little different.

 


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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 09 Jan 20 11.12pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Teddy Eagle

Third world? Before long that will be an aspiration for large parts of east London.

Have you actually travelled in the third world?

Somehow I doubt your claim can be true or many of the people there would be moving out, either to better places in the UK or back to their cultural homelands.

The east end has always seen deprivation but people survive, grow, eventually prosper and move out and on. Provide support, loads of patience and encouragement, and in a generation or two things will be very different. There isn't any really practical alternative.

 


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Teddy Eagle Flag 09 Jan 20 11.21pm Send a Private Message to Teddy Eagle Add Teddy Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Have you actually travelled in the third world?

Somehow I doubt your claim can be true or many of the people there would be moving out, either to better places in the UK or back to their cultural homelands.

The east end has always seen deprivation but people survive, grow, eventually prosper and move out and on. Provide support, loads of patience and encouragement, and in a generation or two things will be very different. There isn't any really practical alternative.

Yes I have.
In the last decade have you spent any more time in east London than it takes a train to pass through?
Many of the people who live there have moved out. I was one of them.


 

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 09 Jan 20 11.36pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Teddy Eagle

Yes I have.
In the last decade have you spent any more time in east London than it takes a train to pass through?
Many of the people who live there have moved out. I was one of them.


I moved out of Croydon. Places change. We change.

I haven't been in east London for a long time as it's not on a route I use and I have no reasons to travel there. Living where I do I don't get to London very often and then it's either in the west or west end.

I get to Birmingham and some northern cities more frequently these days. I see deprivation and squalor, which has though always been there. The faces behind it just change.

 


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PalazioVecchio Flag south pole 10 Jan 20 10.00am Send a Private Message to PalazioVecchio Add PalazioVecchio as a friend

A fact the BBC likes to forget ?

What percentage of refugees are uneducated men of military age ?

90% ?

98% ?


Or do they not look at the photos from the boats in the Med ?

 


Kayla did Anfield & Old Trafford

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cryrst Flag The garden of England 10 Jan 20 10.07am Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

You always dismiss forecasts this way, as though they are of no more value than spinning a coin or some other random guesswork.

They aren't! Forecasts are made after the careful analysis of information. They can, of course, be wrong but the point of having them is to be able to weigh up the probabilities. If all the forecasts point in one direction then there must be a very good chance that that direction is the most likely one to be taken.

Hoping they are wrong is beyond just being optimistic. It is downright irresponsible.

As a kid the weather forecasts were just speculation and quite often wrong. These days they are almost always very accurate. Why? Because we have got better at them. The data is better and powerful computer models can look at all the variables and determine what will happen. Economic forecasting is little different.

I never hope they are wrong.
I just know that there is the same probability both ways.
What you havemt taken on board is any changes the EU will/would have made going forwards.
It probably would not remain the status quo.

 

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Stirlingsays Flag 10 Jan 20 10.12am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

I've said it once, I'll say it a million times.

People who advocate for diversity should be living in it.....that at least isn't hypocritical.

They should not be living in well to do 90+ white areas and then telling the rest how to 'get on'.

Not....'I use to live in it' as if that's an excuse.

Live your own principles.


Edited by Stirlingsays (10 Jan 2020 10.16am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 10 Jan 20 12.18pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst

I never hope they are wrong.
I just know that there is the same probability both ways.

That has to be the leading contender for daftest claim of the year. Now I know it's only Jan 10th but it will take a lot of beating.

What you havemt taken on board is any changes the EU will/would have made going forwards.

We don't have to accept any material changes we don't like. That's why we have a veto.

It probably would not remain the status quo.

 


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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 10 Jan 20 12.27pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

You don't have to live on Mars to know what the conditions are like there and to listen to experts who know what is needed to make it habitable.

No-one lives everywhere. Everyone lives somewhere. Some live in Cornwall. Some in Wisbech, as I used to not so long ago. Some live in Croydon, as I did some years ago

You don't need to be close to a wall to know it's a wall. Often if you are close you can only see a brick and not the cement that binds the wall together.

Looking from afar allows a perspective that embraces the whole and not the specific.

 


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Teddy Eagle Flag 10 Jan 20 12.40pm Send a Private Message to Teddy Eagle Add Teddy Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

You don't have to live on Mars to know what the conditions are like there and to listen to experts who know what is needed to make it habitable.

No-one lives everywhere. Everyone lives somewhere. Some live in Cornwall. Some in Wisbech, as I used to not so long ago. Some live in Croydon, as I did some years ago

You don't need to be close to a wall to know it's a wall. Often if you are close you can only see a brick and not the cement that binds the wall together.

Looking from afar allows a perspective that embraces the whole and not the specific.

But how does that perspective allow you to criticise others’ opinions based on lived experience? Empiricism may not be the only game in town but it’s more convincing than wishful thinking.

 

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