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View blackpalacefan's Profile blackpalacefan Flag 01 Jul 16 11.43pm Send a Private Message to blackpalacefan Add blackpalacefan as a friend

The EU will fleece us during the Brexit process. The talk is that the only way they would entertain limiting the freedom of movement part of EEA is in return for ending the City’s banking “passport” to the EU. So a crippled economy. It's an option of course but as a financial and services economy the impact on our economy would be devastating and that would hit us all [Link]

I'll leave this informative 'How Brexit happens - our base case' document here again and retreat from the discussion as I'm getting too doom and gloom!

[Link]

Edited by blackpalacefan (02 Jul 2016 6.38am)

 

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Hoof Hearted 02 Jul 16 11.21am

Originally posted by SloveniaDave

It's starting to look a little more hopeful that no party or party leader would be stupid enough to initiate the Article 50 process.

It is also looking a little more likely that Parliament will assert, quite rightly, its sovereignty and block Brexit.

There are many lessons to learn from the referendum and politicians should take note about the dissatisfaction it expressed, but any sensible representative democracy should not simply count heads.

I hope common sense will ultimately prevail and we will remain within the EU, but with a much stronger negotiating position which we need to push through more fundamental reforms.

We should then start to address the issues which the referendum raised at a domestic level, rather than blame others for them.

It would be suicide for them and their party NOT to carry out the will of the people.

UKIP are waiting in the wings.

Those communities most affected by rampant immigration will riot if Brexit is quietly swept under the carpet or indefinitely postponed.

 

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 02 Jul 16 11.23am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by blackpalacefan

When we leave the EU we will be leaving the banking passporting system. We'd then be unable to trade with the whole of the EU from London, a huge and damaging change from currently being a world hub and the gateway into Europe. Things like this and the implications of the WTO situation will need to be figured out before we leave.

When negotiating a new deal I suspect that we'll either not get the freedom of movement changes we're looking for, or we will get them but in exchange for giving up our access to the passporting system, the EU will see that as an opportunity to move the banking hub to Frankfurt or somewhere else in the EU resulting in tens of billions lost and hundreds of thousands of jobs. Once we're out of the EU the deal we get is out of our control to a large extent. It's whatever us and 27 EU countries 'all' agree on. Until something is agreed we are at the greatest disadvantage by far. Even if we get our way on everything, much damage would be done in the years previous as by default we're WTO and lose the passporting system. The city depends on it and will be forced to move to areas with single market access hugely setting back our economy. All kinds of businesses other than that wil be impacted too by the WTO scenario and general fallout. If that is a fair exchange for people who want freedom of movement stopped then that's fine, but since nobody has even talked about the worrying WTO and passporting it really just seems that 99% of people both don't know exactly what they have voted for and the implications of it.

There is little chance of getting out of this without financially being seriously reduced as a nation and in turn our clout too. Our primary strength right now is that we haven't left. We should be wanting to stall on that for as long as possible because until we leave damage is spread more uniformly. That creates space for forcing the EUs hand into giving us certain reassurances being we do leave. It's one of our useful bargaining chips. If we leave now it will be a complete disaster. I wouldn't care if immigration was zero per year but it's how workable something is, the consequences of it and the best way of going about it. If we're worried about employment, wages and so on then this action is not about to make any of those situations better. We are in for a grim decade unless we can manage to salvage something out of a situation that people have been too busy cheering about to entertain the realities of.

Edited by blackpalacefan (01 Jul 2016 7.43pm)

'When we leave the EU we will be leaving the banking passporting system.'

Are you sure about this? Isn't it a case of what we want when we leave the EU, not that the bank passporting system is automatically removed from London? Do you have official conditions?

Merkel and Brussels have outright already refused an EEA+ agreement that gives UK migration control, passporting and single market access. That is an opinion. Is there a pre-written condition?

Independent: 'France may offer the UK membership of the European Economic Area. This would give the UK single market access. BUT IT MAY SEEK TO EXCLUDE THE PASSPORTING SYSTEM in return for the migration cap that was so important to Leave campaigners in the run up to the referendum.

That would mean that in order to guarantee the migration cap, THE UK MAY HAVE TO CEDE ITS POSITION AS A GLOBAL FINANCIAL CENTRE. City executives have said that they expect this to happen as the rest of Europe tries to give governments in France and the Netherlands a boost, to avoid the rise of the far right and the threat of other countries leaving the EU.'

'Maybe and may seek to.' A stitch up? I don't agree in the far right apart from making a noise when people agree in a protest (UKIP) but punishing anyone for leaving a club and using this as a reason? It's opportunism. He'd want to do it regardless of the political climate.

He is bitter following the multi million pound court decision last year to keep clearing and exchanges in London. He now sees the opportunity to grab at it.

How fast were BNP Paribas to announce they were leaving London? Rapid. Gone quiet for now. Perhaps because they don't want to leave London until they're made to.

The 3 big US investment banks AND HSBC have announced they are not intending to leave London. They released statement pre-Brexit that they might. Since then they have scrapped plans.

The banks don't want to go, well not the ones not French. It looks it isn't inevitable that we give up the European bank passporting system (or is this incorrect), and it looks as if it's Hollande who's pushing for this. It'll be a foreign affairs and general election victory. Is Merkel acquiescing but cautious with regards to the following negotiations? Is this why Sapin, the French Finance Minister said thins were on the table for discussion/negotiation?

 


COYP

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 02 Jul 16 11.25am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

What's quite mad about this is how we'd ideally like to rebalance the economy and have less reliance on financial services but when it comes to it, we're reluctant because of huge tax receipts.

 


COYP

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 02 Jul 16 11.36am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

I felt more enthusiasm last night for a compromise on freedom of movement and what I'd like to see, free to enter the UK from the EU with a job offer or uni offer, as long as it's feasible isn't open to abuse.

I was watching Newsnight and some of the Burnley folk moaning about EU migrants taking social housing and handouts disappointed me. I was disappointed either in them or in the system. I don't know which because I do not have experience of their communities.

Freedom to enter the UK from the EU with a job offer or uni offer IMO would satisfy a lot of people. The London vote to begin with. If it's communicated properly it can satisfy the disconnected working or non-working classes. It could also tell Scotland that it's all very well having an open door policy, but you need to have a plan and some actual jobs to offer it. Scotland do not, but they still say they'd like to take more people.

Pretty much like the desire for independence from some. They'd like it, but they couldn't afford the public services with it, and in turn would need more austerity, not less. And that's before being another net receiver from the EU following about 5 soon to join.

 


COYP

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View Willo's Profile Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 02 Jul 16 11.38am Send a Private Message to Willo Add Willo as a friend

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

It would be suicide for them and their party NOT to carry out the will of the people.

UKIP are waiting in the wings.

Those communities most affected by rampant immigration will riot if Brexit is quietly swept under the carpet or indefinitely postponed.

Yes I agree.Brexit means Brexit, no ifs no buts.

 

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 02 Jul 16 11.48am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

It's quite embarrassing to hear some remain supporters propose that parliament ignore the referendum vote.

Democracy only when they agree with the result. The implications are quite insidious....Sometimes you can see how people would be if society ever broke down.

Anyone with the idea that Brexit isn't going to happen is completely out of touch.

We actually do democracy here.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View susmik's Profile susmik Flag PLYMOUTH -But Made in Old Coulsdon... 02 Jul 16 12.27pm Send a Private Message to susmik Add susmik as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

It's quite embarrassing to hear some remain supporters propose that parliament ignore the referendum vote.

Democracy only when they agree with the result. The implications are quite insidious....Sometimes you can see how people would be if society ever broke down.

Anyone with the idea that Brexit isn't going to happen is completely out of touch.

We actually do democracy here.

Have to agree there is NO WAY the vote will just be swept under the table. I am afraid that the "Remain" voters will have to accept that a democratic vote is what we go by as with general elections. I do not think that anyone standing for Prime minister would put the premiership on the line by just not exiting the EU.... Theresa May has said that if she gets the job there WILL be a Brexit !!

 


Supported Palace for over 69 years since the age of 7 and have seen all the ups and downs and will probably see many more ups and downs before I go up to the big football club in the sky.

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nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 02 Jul 16 12.41pm

Originally posted by susmik

Have to agree there is NO WAY the vote will just be swept under the table. I am afraid that the "Remain" voters will have to accept that a democratic vote is what we go by as with general elections. I do not think that anyone standing for Prime minister would put the premiership on the line by just not exiting the EU.... Theresa May has said that if she gets the job there WILL be a Brexit !!

It'll be difficult for whoever takes over the Tories. Most of their MP's are anti Brexit. Yet as Willo said earlier party membership is an average age of 68 which is the main demographic for leave.
If May wins and goes to carry out the will of the membership by invoking article 50 asap she may cause a rift in the PCP

 

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 02 Jul 16 12.47pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by nickgusset

It'll be difficult for whoever takes over the Tories. Most of their MP's are anti Brexit. Yet as Willo said earlier party membership is an average age of 68 which is the main demographic for leave.
If May wins and goes to carry out the will of the membership by invoking article 50 asap she may cause a rift in the PCP

Mmmmm.....when you say most of the Tories are anti Brexit....I think you have to recognise that a Tory remain MP and a Labour remain MP are two different breeds.

Lots of Tory remainers were remain through gritted teeth....not content in anyway. Whereas most Labour MPs are quite happy to bend over for anything the EU wants. The old Labour respect for the sovereignty of parliament having gone long ago.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Hrolf The Ganger's Profile Hrolf The Ganger Flag 02 Jul 16 12.48pm Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Some Remainers remind me of the African poacher who hunts the animal knowing it is close to extinction but doesn't care because he will just find another animal to hunt.
The short termism of out of control capitalism is alarming and indicative of stupid human greed.
It seems that remainers are either in that camp or have some starry eyed idea of a hippy dippy future of peace, harmony and equality.

Never gonna happen.

We must force this government to abide by the democratic decision of the people and save us from this European power trip. We must think about the consequences if we continue on the path we have been following. Britain cannot sustain an ever growing population and see our culture and standard of living rapidly eroded by corporate shortsightedness and self interest.

 

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nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 02 Jul 16 12.56pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Mmmmm.....when you say most of the Tories are anti Brexit....I think you have to recognise that a Tory remain MP and a Labour remain MP are two different breeds.

Lots of Tory remainers were remain through gritted teeth....not content in anyway. Whereas most Labour MPs are quite happy to bend over for anything the EU wants. The old Labour respect for the sovereignty of parliament having gone long ago.


I wasn't talking about Labour! That's a different argument.

I do feel whoever takes over the Tories will be taking on a bit of a poisoned chalice. The EU question / subject has historically ripped the party apart, I imagine that it will still continue to do so.

 

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