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The Election Thread

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 17 Nov 19 3.35pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

People don't work like that....can you tell me a successful example of the nanny state?.

Waste of time.

Incentives work, the nanny state doesn't.

Edited by Stirlingsays (17 Nov 2019 2.06pm)

I believe you are a fan of Japan as I previously said they direct large amounts of money into preventative health care.

 


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View chris123's Profile chris123 Flag hove actually 17 Nov 19 3.39pm Send a Private Message to chris123 Add chris123 as a friend

Originally posted by steeleye20

The tories have had their 10 years and frankly, they have been a disaster.

If they stumble through this election it still looks a collection of out-dated redundant ideas.

As for austerity, they really should have read their Keynes, an economy must always have stimulus.

Perhaps they think a public library is communism.

Then how come they can borrow so cheaply?

 

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag Chatham 17 Nov 19 3.45pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

The reason that borrowing is so cheap is because the tories didnt.
Now labour and the lib dems and the greens have benefited with their promises.
Clearly austerity has worked!
A bit like building your credit score by paying off debt at a sensible rate and not borrowing stupidly.

 

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 17 Nov 19 3.47pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by dollardays


As a voting block it does tend to be the least engaged, and for all kind of reasons that I don't think need to be a criticism of young people, I can appreciate that. So you're never going to get those barely out of their teens voting to the same level as pensioners.

Polls and predictions can always be off the mark though, and if as you say 'in the last 2 weeks over a million 18-24 year olds have newly registered to vote' I would certainly assume that they intend to vote, so it could move the needle a little. There are bound to be some surprises and interesting stats to dig through after the election.

The way we register for voting has changed in he last few years. It used to be that a form was sent to the home and one person would complete it on behalf of the family. So one form may have Mum Dad and 2 teenagers on it not that the teenagers even noticed.

Today each person is expected to register individually, however what is not clear just yet is do more or less people register. 1mm people in several weeks sounds a lot but it maybe that it is par for the course before an election it just wasn't noticed as they were previously group returns.

After the 2017 the media reported that the young turned our in droves to vote for Corbyn. Later I saw some research that suggested the youth turnout was not that much different from previous elections!

If they are registering in larger numbers and intend to vote that has to be a good thing and no doubt the pollsters will have to adjust their predications if they get it wrong yet again.

One final point you have to register each year so are they new voters are voters simply re-registering from last year?

Edited by Badger11 (17 Nov 2019 3.49pm)

 


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Deleted 17 Nov 19 4.07pm

Originally posted by cryrst

The reason that borrowing is so cheap is because the tories didnt.
Now labour and the lib dems and the greens have benefited with their promises.
Clearly austerity has worked!
A bit like building your credit score by paying off debt at a sensible rate and not borrowing stupidly.

Wow. I'm not an elite economist, but that statement is completely false. The whole paragraph doesnt even make sense from an economic pov. Im more than willing for you to change my mind, but i doubt you will.

The reason int rates are low has nothing to do with any party policy or action. Its supposed to be a stimulus to the private sector, which is keeping the bomb ticking along. Nothing more nothing less. If the economy was great, we would have around 4 to 5% rates

 

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 17 Nov 19 4.13pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Badger11

I believe you are a fan of Japan as I previously said they direct large amounts of money into preventative health care.

Massive fan.

Japan's healthcare costs quite a lot more than ours....Increasing life expectancy over a vast population....It doesn't save as much as you'd think as you increase costs in other areas.

Edited by Stirlingsays (17 Nov 2019 4.13pm)

 

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View steeleye20's Profile steeleye20 Flag Croydon 17 Nov 19 4.50pm Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst

The reason that borrowing is so cheap is because the tories didnt.
Now labour and the lib dems and the greens have benefited with their promises.
Clearly austerity has worked!
A bit like building your credit score by paying off debt at a sensible rate and not borrowing stupidly.

So basically Chez Cryst, if the roof is leaking you would not borrow to fix it as you can always sleep rough.

 

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View steeleye20's Profile steeleye20 Flag Croydon 17 Nov 19 5.07pm Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

I can't find anything, not one thing anywhere positive about Johnson.

However I have a sneaking respect for a guy who can dump a woman.

 

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View chris123's Profile chris123 Flag hove actually 17 Nov 19 5.58pm Send a Private Message to chris123 Add chris123 as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Massive fan.

Japan's healthcare costs quite a lot more than ours....Increasing life expectancy over a vast population....It doesn't save as much as you'd think as you increase costs in other areas.

Edited by Stirlingsays (17 Nov 2019 4.13pm)

The model needs to change to reflect an ageing population that may no longer produce, but they do consume and that will help demand led growth.

 

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag Chatham 17 Nov 19 7.07pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by steeleye20

So basically Chez Cryst, if the roof is leaking you would not borrow to fix it as you can always sleep rough.

Not hard to spell when it's in front of you steeleyeyeye.
Fixing a roof yes.
Replacing just because you can borrow that much no.
Labour could easily work with openreach or the dentists with a smaller borrow/invest/advise/help.
But they want to totally take it over with no experience or knowledge.
Openreach and others say its nearer 80 billion to complete the installs everywhere.
That's my point.
Just because you can it doesnt mean you have to.

 

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deleted user Flag 18 Nov 19 9.18am

Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (+7) LAB: 28% (-1) LibDem: 13% (-4) BREX: 5% (-5) GRN: 3% (+2) via @Survation, 14- 16 Nov Chgs. w/ 8 Nov

[To correctly judge the effect of parties that have stood down candidates, respondents were read out the names of the parties and candidates standing in their own constituency. This is the first poll to fully incorporate party standings in each seat.

Results are therefore not directly comparable to any previous polling conducted.]

Quite a bump for the Tories there.

It looks like Brexit selectively stepping down might prove game over for this election. I guess it does logically make sense that the vote that split the least would win out, and it's hard to get beyond that thought unless something really drastic changes over the next couple of weeks.

 

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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 18 Nov 19 9.43am Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Yesterday Corbyn gave a interview where he sat on the fence on a number of big issues or simply didn't clarify his position. Not a good look if you want to be leader of the country. The voters are entitled to ask well what am I voting for?

If I was a Remainer I would be very suspicious of voting for Labour as Corbyn did more ducking and diving than Frank Bruno.

My completely unscientific take on the mood of the country is this:

Brexit voters are still determined to leave and will vote for Johnson except where the Tories have no chance then its the Brexit party.

Remainers must be disillusioned as the only viable option is the Lib Dems. My guess is that many Remainers will therefore grudgingly except that Brexit is a done deal and will therefore vote for parties that reflect their other concerns. Labour may still pick up reluctant Remainer voters this way and will do well in the cities. I also wouldn't be surprised if after the GE it turns out that Remainers stayed home in larger numbers that Brexit voters.

As for the leaders:

Johnson looks like he is in charge, love him or hate him. Johnson has managed to rid himself of the rebels in his party so he now has a united front on Brexit. Unless Labour can find some dirt that will stick he will be PM.

Corbyn looks like he is a prisoner of his own party not quite able to say what he really wants to for fear of splitting the party. Over 100 Labour MPs have signed a letter stating they will fight to remain which is against official Labour party policy. 3/4 years on Corbyn has the same problem as the day he was elected leader, his MPs don't want him a problem he had not solved and never will.

Jo Swinson - Who? She had hoped this would be her time as millions of Labour Remain voters switch to her party and put her in power. As I said above I think the Remain vote has collapsed so apart from the die hards I don't see any real movement towards the Lib Dems. They will do better than the 2017 GE but will they reach the 20 plus MPs they had just before Boris called this one?

Greens will improve on their vote and may pick up the odd MP (and there are plenty of odd MPs about) but with all of the major parties promising actions on Green affairs no breakthrough for them.

SNP will clean up in Scotland and will demand Indyref2 which is the next big crisis that Boris will face.

The rest same old same old.


 


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