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2024 General Election

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag The garden of England 12 Jan 24 7.39pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

The economy grew by 0.3 % last quarter.
Darned Brexit.

 

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View Wisbech Eagle's Profile Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 12 Jan 24 10.20pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst

The economy grew by 0.3 % last quarter.
Darned Brexit.

Every ray of sunshine doesn’t mean it’s summer. So I wouldn’t get the champagne out just yet:-

[Link]

 


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View georgenorman's Profile georgenorman Flag 12 Jan 24 10.28pm Send a Private Message to georgenorman Add georgenorman as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst

The economy grew by 0.3 % last quarter.
Darned Brexit.

Yes, like we were told the stock market would crash along with house prices. We now of course have had record highs in both markets.

 

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View Wisbech Eagle's Profile Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 13 Jan 24 9.10am Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by georgenorman

Yes, like we were told the stock market would crash along with house prices. We now of course have had record highs in both markets.

More straw clinging in a desperate attempt to justify what is to most people an obvious failure.

The stock market did decline quite steeply but has recovered and continued its historical slow and steady growth. Money has to go somewhere. What would have been the performance without Brexit? No one knows because we did Brexit but logically given what we have witnessed it would probably have been better.

The housing market boomed during the pandemic due to the stamp duty holiday offered to stop it drying up. That and the desire of people to move away from the cities when working from home was made possible. Very low interest rates helped too. That’s now over and the market is in decline.

 


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View georgenorman's Profile georgenorman Flag 13 Jan 24 9.38am Send a Private Message to georgenorman Add georgenorman as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

More straw clinging in a desperate attempt to justify what is to most people an obvious failure.

The stock market did decline quite steeply but has recovered and continued its historical slow and steady growth. Money has to go somewhere. What would have been the performance without Brexit? No one knows because we did Brexit but logically given what we have witnessed it would probably have been better.

The housing market boomed during the pandemic due to the stamp duty holiday offered to stop it drying up. That and the desire of people to move away from the cities when working from home was made possible. Very low interest rates helped too. That’s now over and the market is in decline.

What a Walter Mitty you are.

Remainer propaganda said that house prices would fall by 18% - they were in fact 5% higher during the year after the referendum.

Scandalous Remainer propaganda said that the stock market would experience record falls - in fact it soon reached record highs.

 

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View Wisbech Eagle's Profile Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 13 Jan 24 11.51am Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by georgenorman

What a Walter Mitty you are.

Remainer propaganda said that house prices would fall by 18% - they were in fact 5% higher during the year after the referendum.

Scandalous Remainer propaganda said that the stock market would experience record falls - in fact it soon reached record highs.

Forecasting house price movements is notoriously difficult. I too expected them to fall. Whether they would have risen further without Brexit is something we will never know. Exactly the same applies to stock markets, which are even more impacted by world events than just what happens here.

What is actually true is whilst forecasts were made by Remain that proved inaccurate in the short term so have those of economic prosperity by the Leavers. The longer term damage is obvious.

On top of that many of the claims made by Leave were outright lies. Not just forecasts. £350 million a day saved in contributions and diverted to the NHS? Lowering immigration? Both lies.

 


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View georgenorman's Profile georgenorman Flag 13 Jan 24 1.01pm Send a Private Message to georgenorman Add georgenorman as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Forecasting house price movements is notoriously difficult. I too expected them to fall. Whether they would have risen further without Brexit is something we will never know. Exactly the same applies to stock markets, which are even more impacted by world events than just what happens here.

What is actually true is whilst forecasts were made by Remain that proved inaccurate in the short term so have those of economic prosperity by the Leavers. The longer term damage is obvious.

On top of that many of the claims made by Leave were outright lies. Not just forecasts. £350 million a day saved in contributions and diverted to the NHS? Lowering immigration? Both lies.

The Remain propaganda said that house prices would fall by 18%, they did not say house prices would rise by 5% but it would be more if we were still in the EU. Similarly, they said the stock market would crash, not that it would reach record heights, but that those heights would be even higher if we were still in the EU.

The elected UK government can do whatever it likes with the £350 million a day saved by leaving the EU. The point that the Leave campaign was making was that we could spend it on the NHS if we wanted to. Equally we could spend it on funding deviant pressure groups such as the trans lobby. The key point is that a UK government would decide.

Leaving the EU stopped free movement which gave the right to practically the entire population of the EU to come here.

Edited by georgenorman (13 Jan 2024 5.37pm)

 

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 13 Jan 24 1.23pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by georgenorman

Yes, like we were told the stock market would crash along with house prices. We now of course have had record highs in both markets.

The collective voice of despondency about the UK economy has been very deliberate. Perhaps one of the most striking examples of the institutional attempts to thwart Britain by attempting to sway public opinion for the invariable attempt to take us back in.

Economic forecasting now only exists to give astrology a good name.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 13 Jan 24 1.33pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger


Any attempt by Starmer to reverse Brexit would be a very dangerous manoeuvre. It would trigger the mother of all backlashes.

It is and it will. But they must be making all kinds of calculations around that.

Firstly, I think the mechanism for taking us back in will be a second referendum which will come about in much the same way that Starmer and co engineered the change in Labours policy on the same matter. There will be a motion passed at the Labour Party conference to hold a rejoin vote and Startmer will proclaim it as just part of the democratic process.

Now the issue then comes about passing the Referendum Act that will enable it, and here is why Labour will need a massive majority because a number of its own MP's will object, especially the ones in the Red Wall seats. In fact, I suspect Starmer will make a it a free vote and might even abstain himself or vote against.

Then the question its self might even have three options, with one being the status quo, the second being to rejoin the single market with all that entails and the third being a straight forward rejoin. And perhaps all against a frame-work of a pretty strong, at least in terms of perception, EU anti-migration drive that will be offered up as the only way of stopping the illegals turning up on Southern Beachs in that if they cannot reach France in the first place, then the problem goes away. With all of it designed to effectively nullify the backlash. Personally I would hope for a massive boycott of it.

What comes after that will be interesting but the rejoin option will invariably be some kind of 'Treaty' that will be virtually impossible to reverse with perhaps even a 20 year minimum clause before it can be revisited.

And then....potentially gets interesting.

Edited by Matov (13 Jan 2024 1.34pm)

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag The garden of England 13 Jan 24 1.47pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by Matov

It is and it will. But they must be making all kinds of calculations around that.

Firstly, I think the mechanism for taking us back in will be a second referendum which will come about in much the same way that Starmer and co engineered the change in Labours policy on the same matter. There will be a motion passed at the Labour Party conference to hold a rejoin vote and Startmer will proclaim it as just part of the democratic process.

Now the issue then comes about passing the Referendum Act that will enable it, and here is why Labour will need a massive majority because a number of its own MP's will object, especially the ones in the Red Wall seats. In fact, I suspect Starmer will make a it a free vote and might even abstain himself or vote against.

Then the question its self might even have three options, with one being the status quo, the second being to rejoin the single market with all that entails and the third being a straight forward rejoin. And perhaps all against a frame-work of a pretty strong, at least in terms of perception, EU anti-migration drive that will be offered up as the only way of stopping the illegals turning up on Southern Beachs in that if they cannot reach France in the first place, then the problem goes away. With all of it designed to effectively nullify the backlash. Personally I would hope for a massive boycott of it.

What comes after that will be interesting but the rejoin option will invariably be some kind of 'Treaty' that will be virtually impossible to reverse with perhaps even a 20 year minimum clause before it can be revisited.

And then....potentially gets interesting.

Edited by Matov (13 Jan 2024 1.34pm)

What would be the difference between the 2 nd and 3rd choices. Are there a lot ?
Genuine question.

 

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View robdave2k's Profile robdave2k Flag 13 Jan 24 4.16pm Send a Private Message to robdave2k Add robdave2k as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Forecasting house price movements is notoriously difficult. I too expected them to fall. Whether they would have risen further without Brexit is something we will never know. Exactly the same applies to stock markets, which are even more impacted by world events than just what happens here.

What is actually true is whilst forecasts were made by Remain that proved inaccurate in the short term so have those of economic prosperity by the Leavers. The longer term damage is obvious.

On top of that many of the claims made by Leave were outright lies. Not just forecasts. £350 million a day saved in contributions and diverted to the NHS? Lowering immigration? Both lies.

£350 million per week wasn't it*

*personally I believe it's cobblers either way, but your claim above has a difference of several billion a week - an I'm sure you wouldn't want any misinformation being left.

Edited by robdave2k (13 Jan 2024 4.17pm)

 

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View cryrst's Profile cryrst Flag The garden of England 13 Jan 24 5.09pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by robdave2k

£350 million per week wasn't it*

*personally I believe it's cobblers either way, but your claim above has a difference of several billion a week - an I'm sure you wouldn't want any misinformation being left.

Edited by robdave2k (13 Jan 2024 4.17pm)

He was testing us obviously

 

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