The Tories have a healthy lead in the polls right now, and the Brexit Party not contesting the 317 seats they won previously won't do them any harm.

I get what you're saying though, as there are a number of dynamics at play. Corbyn is very unpopular already, and so it could be said that the only way is up. But I feel that for leave voters, people have a much clearer idea of who to vote for this time around than reamainers do, and in a FPTP system that might give them the edge in a number of marginals.

Indeed but Hilary Clinton was once 1/10 to win the US Presidential election,Theresa May was expected to gain a much increased majority and Remain were expected to win the referendum.

I take nothing for granted.

Royal Mail strike is off for now so that means we will get our poll cards and postal votes and bills and junk mail, damn.

Royal mail claim the vote was rigged although it was 97% in favour of a strike and they are a bolshy lot so I don't expect the re-run will be any different.

Turkey's voting for Christmas this lot are going the way of the dockers.

One more point

Come off it. The Boris is a liar ploy in the wider context of politics is utterly feeble.
It is crying out for whataboutery and ridicule.

Edited by Hrolf The Ganger (13 Nov 2019 3.36pm)

Issue with calling this election one way or the other is that since 2015 nothing has gone the way it has meant to.

We were meant to vote Remain. We did not.
We were meant to give May a massive majority. We did not.

Perhaps the only political event that has gone according to conventional wisdom was the Euro elections with the Brexit Party absolutely storming it just as UKIP did in the one before that.

Parliament has been insane with a Speaker tearing up hundreds of years of convention to deliberately undermine a sitting Government, ditto with the Courts and then an Opposition failing, not once but 3 times, to actually back an election.

The entire period has been utter political pandemonium.

I predicted that Johnson will win this GE with a 30-40 seat majority but the truth is that is more a hunch than anything else and certainly not qualifiable but I simply cannot see how Labour gain a single seat and will lose a slew more. They did fantastically well back in 2017 on a manifesto promise to honour the 2016 vote and yet have not only gone back on that but are promising to put us all through another 6 months of hell with this second referendum nonsense. Which achieves nothing because Brexit does not go away on the back of it. I feel they would have been better off going full-on Remain because at least then there is a sense of it all being over even if it would not be but at least it is a clear option.

Throw in the fact that whatever you think of Johnson (and I cannot dispute any of the negatives the lefties like to list) the man does have a charisma about him. He is not May, who had the personal charm of chlamydia and has beaten Lefties before. Not once but twice and in London. That cannot be ignored, no matter how much people want to dismiss it.

All I see is a nation that wants Brexit over and the Tories offer the single best chance of that happening. I just cannot see them losing, especially when you break down the results of both the referendum and the Euro elections on a constituency basis. All of which makes Labours Brexit position of a second referendum even more incredulous.

There are no votes in it.

But who knows in this modern political age? I am willing to concede that.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

A pointless discussion which 'Bill' should not have started.

Why you are trying to score points off of it, heaven knows.