Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?
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 ASCPFC  Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 24 Jun 23 12.46pm |
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Originally posted by Ouzo Dan
The Ukrainian's have something like 60,000/70,000 troops they can throw at this offensive, it's honestly not enough. Prighozin has been calling for extra ammunition & equipment for months, it appears they've been stockpiling what they were given & this rebel insurgency has been planned for a while, starting this on a Friday night is also smart given that most Russians stationed in Rostov will be pissed as a fart & off for the weekend. I can't see anyway Wagner will be able to roll tanks all the way to Moscow without being completely devastated by airpower but every time I give the Russians credit they somehow manage to pluck incompetence from the jaws of victory so we'll have to see. There may be US money washing around. In that case, others might join in. Not exactly unlikely for the Americans to be doing this.
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cryrst  The garden of England 24 Jun 23 1.02pm |
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Originally posted by ASCPFC
There may be US money washing around. In that case, others might join in. Not exactly unlikely for the Americans to be doing this. Wagner do this for money. Maybe the west has promised a few bob to them. Who knows war is strange.
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| Ouzo Dan 24 Jun 23 1.18pm |
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Originally posted by ASCPFC
There may be US money washing around. In that case, others might join in. Not exactly unlikely for the Americans to be doing this. He is a proper mercenary so you can't rule out the US buying him, or various other groups operating in Ukraine, I'd imagine Russia were paying him billions already but let's not pretend he is any sort of saviour, all this has come about because he thinks he can kill Ukrainian's far more efficiently than Shoigu/Gerasimov. He has called for the use of Nukes. In comparison Putin is the moderate
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| Grumbles 24 Jun 23 1.30pm |
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Too early to tell really. It looks like a failed attempt to topple Prighozin by Shoigu. Putin has allowed in fighting as it drew the attention away from him but now it has backfired. Wagner forces can cut off Russian forces in Ukraine from supplies and is the primary force in Russian geopolitical power projection on the ground. Prighozin now has a short window to make things untenable for Putin or hope for wider munity amongst the rank and file within the occupying forces in Ukraine. However Dan is correct, he makes Putin look like a moderate. Ican't see any opportunity of a detente.
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| Ouzo Dan 24 Jun 23 2.56pm |
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Wagner are two hours from Moscow. I didn't realise how much Wagner had a tight grip on all Russian influence in Africa, Putin has lost all of it in 24 hours this might actually be the end of Putin however this pans out. Putin's personal jet was tracked leaving Moscow before the transponder was turned off. Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 3.03pm)
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Forest Hillbilly  in a hidey-hole 24 Jun 23 3.24pm |
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It's all very well wanting Putin gone, but having Yevgeny Prigozhin as Russia's new Head of State, (or military CiC) in charge of the air force, Navy, and Russia's entire nuclear arsenal would be the worst possible outcome. Edited by Forest Hillbilly (24 Jun 2023 3.25pm)
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Matov  24 Jun 23 3.27pm |
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Originally posted by Ouzo Dan
Wagner are two hours from Moscow. I didn't realise how much Wagner had a tight grip on all Russian influence in Africa, Putin has lost all of it in 24 hours this might actually be the end of Putin however this pans out. Putin's personal jet was tracked leaving Moscow before the transponder was turned off. Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 3.03pm) I would wait and see how matters pan out in the next 48 hours. It is clear that Wagner can cause issues but so what? A best it is a very nasty and problematic temper tantrum. But not a coup by any stretch of the imagination. They are a glorified security company. They might be able to cause mayhem but they cannot run a country. Hazarding a guess this is all done and dusted inside of 72 hours. And it has to end with either Putin gone or Prigozhin dead. There is no way out of this for both of them to emerge through the smoke and mirrors. The perception is that all the main institutions in the country are loyal to Putin and his government. Meaning this Wagner lot can kick and scream as much as they want and it ultimately ends up as nothing more than a squalid mutiny. However, I have tended to call more wrong than right so far on this Ukraine/Russia issue so nothing would surprise me.
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell. |
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| Ouzo Dan 24 Jun 23 3.58pm |
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Originally posted by Forest Hillbilly
It's all very well wanting Putin gone, but having Yevgeny Prigozhin as Russia's new Head of State, (or military CiC) in charge of the air force, Navy, and Russia's entire nuclear arsenal would be the worst possible outcome. Edited by Forest Hillbilly (24 Jun 2023 3.25pm) I cant stress this enough, if Prigozhin comes out on top, make plans to leave cities for a bit. Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 4.07pm)
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| Ouzo Dan 24 Jun 23 4.07pm |
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Originally posted by Matov
I would wait and see how matters pan out in the next 48 hours. It is clear that Wagner can cause issues but so what? A best it is a very nasty and problematic temper tantrum. But not a coup by any stretch of the imagination. They are a glorified security company. They might be able to cause mayhem but they cannot run a country. Hazarding a guess this is all done and dusted inside of 72 hours. And it has to end with either Putin gone or Prigozhin dead. There is no way out of this for both of them to emerge through the smoke and mirrors. The perception is that all the main institutions in the country are loyal to Putin and his government. Meaning this Wagner lot can kick and scream as much as they want and it ultimately ends up as nothing more than a squalid mutiny. However, I have tended to call more wrong than right so far on this Ukraine/Russia issue so nothing would surprise me. See my previous comments, I am waiting. Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 4.08pm)
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| Stirlingsays 24 Jun 23 6.27pm |
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Originally posted by Ouzo Dan
I cant stress this enough, if Prigozhin comes out on top, make plans to leave cities for a bit. Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 4.07pm) I can't see it myself.....he would need the Russian military to switch. I see small scale fighting and negotiations. Prigozhin couldn't hold Russia together.....it would certainly destroy Russia in Ukraine but also far more dangerous. Yep, very dangerous in terms of the break up of Russia and nuclear unstabliity. Putin is far more predictable than Prigozhin.
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| Stirlingsays 24 Jun 23 7.00pm |
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Reports coming through: Lukashenko held talks with Prigozhin in agreement with Putin — press service of the President of the Republic of Belarus. Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed persons of the Wagner company on the territory of Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tensions with security guarantees for the Wagner PMC fighters. According to a new Prigozhin voice message - 'We came within 200km of Moscow without shedding a drop of blood, now there is the possibility of blood being shed, understanding this responsibility we will turn around our convoys and return to our bases.' Edited by Stirlingsays (24 Jun 2023 7.00pm)
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| Matov 24 Jun 23 7.18pm |
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Utterly bizarre 24 hours. The talk of a 'coup' was ludicrous from the get-go for all kinds of reasons but even so, this is now beyond bizarre. I still see no upside to Wagner. They return to their barracks and Putin will move against them. He has to. All I can think of is that Prigozhin was conned into thinking that there would be a mass uprising from the Russian army in his favour. And he realised it was not happening hence the backtracking. But who knows? A crazy day in what is an insane situation.
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell. |
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