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July 5 2022 1.08am

Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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View Vincehair's Profile Vincehair Flag London 22 Jun 22 10.44pm Send a Private Message to Vincehair Add Vincehair as a friend

Lot of people talking about what’s best for Ukraine, think you’d better ask them

 

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 23 Jun 22 7.49am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Vincehair

Lot of people talking about what’s best for Ukraine, think you’d better ask them


If you mean the population the answer is likely to be an immediate peace. However, holding a referendum during a war is unrealistic.

If you mean ask the Zelensky government. Well, the Americans have given them 50 billion and both them and the EU have contributed with heavy weapons to continue fighting. Along with press statements the general theme has been to continue fighting until the Russians are pushed out of the Ukraine....with the general picture as it is that's just not going to happen....in fact Russian gains are accelerating in the donbas.

I'll make the point that the amount of sophisticated weapons now within the general Ukraine population...most of whom are skint is pretty dangerous for us moving forward terrorism wise....but that was obvious a long time ago.

Zelensky is in a very difficult position, if he does make peace with the Russians and gives up the east and south then his life is on a timer with the nationalists who will blame him for the failures....he would need to get out of the Ukraine sharp.

What happens next? Will Belarus join the war and open up a northern front onto Kiev? Does that mean Poland join the war as a counter? What would that mean in terms of Nato?

Zelensky's hope is for the west to commit to an all out war against Russia...and that's been his tactic since the beginning.

In my view if we seriously mean to defeat Russia and push it out of the Ukraine than we need to commit our own armies then that's the only realistic way to do it. I think the sanctions have been an abject failure and have affected us more than them.....You would think our guys were smarter but apparently not.

I shouldn't need to say just how bad an outcome that would be for everyone. The risks taken there don't bare thinking about....in fact I think outrageous risks have already been taken....especially long term for us.

Personally I think our nations need to look for an out before that.

Will Russia offer terms after finally taking the Donbas and south... .will they push on to Odessa and so take away the Ukraine's only seaport? Have they decided on taking all of the Ukraine? I doubt it personally but they might just continue until they get capitulation on a muppet government.

Having Biden as president with all the stupid things he has said means that negotiation between him and Putin looks pretty unlikely. So would Macron be the proxy? No one wants to take responsibility for a loss, yet no one wants to risk a fully fledged war.....Also it's highly unlikely that the EU would accept a war that continued into the winter for economic reasons.

So will they just let Russia make gains until it offers terms?
Perhaps Macron....who looks like he's effectively gone anyway...and Germany's Scholz....insist that Zelensky negotiates realistically....Biden can then blame them and Putin and get out of a bind in time for the November house elections.

I don't know but I think Nato and Johnson suggesting that the war could last years was unrealistic and it's more likely that moves will be afoot to bring this to a conclusion before winter brings serious energy requirements.

All conjecture of course, pure speculation.

In my view, this has been pure incompetence from the start....low quality elites.


Edited by Stirlingsays (23 Jun 2022 7.53am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 23 Jun 22 8.08am Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays


In my view, this has been pure incompetence from the start....low quality elites.


Edited by Stirlingsays (23 Jun 2022 7.53am)


Whilst I don't disagree with the 'low quality', I also suspect that they are a lot more cynical with it than people give credit for. I am now convinced that it is Johnson, purely based on the fact that it is perhaps the one area of his current political life, in which the polling is not horrendous.

He will do ANYTHING to keep this war going as long as he can. For once, and it causes me to question my sanity, beginning to think that Macron might actually have the better, overall, strategic view on all of this.

I genuinely cannot understand who stands to gain by dragging this war out any longer than it needs to be. Suspect there is a lot of money floating around in the halls of the Ukranian Government with a lot of people getting wealthy on the back of this all along with every chancer in Europe currently on the 'humanitarian' aid bandwagon.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 23 Jun 22 8.44am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Matov

Whilst I don't disagree with the 'low quality', I also suspect that they are a lot more cynical with it than people give credit for. I am now convinced that it is Johnson, purely based on the fact that it is perhaps the one area of his current political life, in which the polling is not horrendous.

He will do ANYTHING to keep this war going as long as he can. For once, and it causes me to question my sanity, beginning to think that Macron might actually have the better, overall, strategic view on all of this.

I genuinely cannot understand who stands to gain by dragging this war out any longer than it needs to be. Suspect there is a lot of money floating around in the halls of the Ukranian Government with a lot of people getting wealthy on the back of this all along with every chancer in Europe currently on the 'humanitarian' aid bandwagon.

I've heard conjecture that the Johnson approach is more inclined to a kind of partnership with the eastern EU countries as a form of support within the EU power structure.

Don't know....However, if the ultimate concern is for the Ukrainian people, I don't think they actually factor in that much. They are the pawns suffering over a highly avoidable war.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 23 Jun 22 8.52am Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I've heard conjecture that the Johnson approach is more inclined to a kind of partnership with the eastern EU countries as a form of support within the EU power structure.

.


Possible. And Poland, probably the most powerful regional player at the moment, is firmly within the Anglo-Saxon remit.

But Johnson is also more than capable of waging wars if it means he keeps his job.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 23 Jun 22 8.56am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

More wild conjecture here but are Russia thinking of Belarus invading and taking Kiev and northern Ukraine?

If Russia take the south, east and centre and Poland invade to safe guard west Ukraine (where most of their heritage Poles are) then you could have a situation where the Ukraine effectively ceases to exist in anything like before.

Just spit balling.....but you could effectively see a vastly reduced Ukraine and two governments, one protected by Poland ruling over the west and one in Kiev effectively Russian controlled.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 23 Jun 22 9.02am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Matov

Possible. And Poland, probably the most powerful regional player at the moment, is firmly within the Anglo-Saxon remit.

But Johnson is also more than capable of waging wars if it means he keeps his job.

I've become increasingly convinced that if they are actually serious about kicking Russia out of the Ukraine then the west needs its own troops and equipment on the ground...its own armies.....it can't be done piecemeal, training foreign troops on equipment on the fly.....it's never going to have the numbers nor expertise in depth.....it's not realistic.

You need armies ready to go, it appears obvious now that Russia have been planning this since Biden came in and were considering it long before that......but the whole idea of a land war is madness anyway.....it's existential and should only be done if Nato countries are invaded (Nato, in my view over expanded).

Edited by Stirlingsays (23 Jun 2022 9.17am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 23 Jun 22 9.45am Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I've become increasingly convinced that if they are actually serious about kicking Russia out of the Ukraine then the west needs its own troops and equipment on the ground...its own armies.....it can't be done piecemeal, training foreign troops on equipment on the fly.....it's never going to have the numbers nor expertise in depth.....it's not realistic.


Edited by Stirlingsays (23 Jun 2022 9.17am)

Russia can survive any kind of prolonged war. And without its gas, Europe is in a LOT of trouble. This is the insanity. Russia can keep its people warm and their stomachs full. Europe cannot. It is as though people want Europe to be utterly f***ed with our leadership cheering this on. Pan-National suicide.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Online Flag 23 Jun 22 11.50am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

It's only recently that the mainstream media have been coming to terms with the realities of the battlefield in the Ukraine....while still looking to minimize negatives and hype positives.

They have been reporting absolute dross for months and made emotive and biased predictions that are embarrassing to me as a westerner raised in a different era.

The number of reports that Russia was on its last legs both economically and militarily both in the print and broadcast media contrast with the actual realities occurring in the real world.

It's actually very soviet....If someone had told me the west would become this thirty years ago I just wouldn't have believed it.

It's far better to be accurate than appeal to a reality you prefer...aka propaganda.....For example, the BBC of the past was lauded for being reliant for telling people what was actually happening but I think that's been damaged since they became ideological.

There is no excuse. All the information from the battlefield and economic situations are out there and in my view the mainstream media have failed their publics via omissions and one eyed interpretations from talking heads who talked absolute drivel.

No better than the Russian media itself.

Edited by Stirlingsays (23 Jun 2022 11.57am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards View W12's Profile W12 23 Jun 22 1.05pm Send a Private Message to W12 Add W12 as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

It's only recently that the mainstream media have been coming to terms with the realities of the battlefield in the Ukraine....while still looking to minimize negatives and hype positives.

They have been reporting absolute dross for months and made emotive and biased predictions that are embarrassing to me as a westerner raised in a different era.

The number of reports that Russia was on its last legs both economically and militarily both in the print and broadcast media contrast with the actual realities occurring in the real world.

It's actually very soviet....If someone had told me the west would become this thirty years ago I just wouldn't have believed it.

It's far better to be accurate than appeal to a reality you prefer...aka propaganda.....For example, the BBC of the past was lauded for being reliant for telling people what was actually happening but I think that's been damaged since they became ideological.

There is no excuse. All the information from the battlefield and economic situations are out there and in my view the mainstream media have failed their publics via omissions and one eyed interpretations from talking heads who talked absolute drivel.

No better than the Russian media itself.


Edited by Stirlingsays (23 Jun 2022 11.57am)

There are so many huge geopolitical changes going on beyond this war and our media is silent. No least the alliances being formed within the BRICS nations that will fundamentally change the world.

The attached shows just how way off the media are from popular sentiment when it comes to basic issues (US example). Tells quite a story.

2022-06-23 13.03.26.jpg Attachment: 2022-06-23 13.03.26.jpg (44.63Kb)

 

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View BlueJay's Profile BlueJay Flag UK 23 Jun 22 1.31pm Send a Private Message to BlueJay Add BlueJay as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

No better than the Russian media itself.

Edited by Stirlingsays (23 Jun 2022 11.57am)

Even acknowledging that a war is taking place is Russia is taboo, speaking out against it a swift way to arrest and imprisonment. The Kremlin media narrative by virtue of this cannot even legally provide real world details of this invasion (or 'special military operation') in any meaningful way. While all nations media is inevitably partially skewed in alignment to our national and military action the BBC posts plenty of nuanced articles about the significant oil income of Russia [Link] and Russian successes in this war. Russian TV talks of how Ukraine identity doesn't exist, is 'nazi', and regularly threatens to nuke countries who push back against their provocation. I must have missed that happening in our media...

The BBC is far from perfect , but much of your perception of it and attitude to your country are clearly due to your own weakening allegaince to it due to what you see as its cultural direction (you even stated concerns at Western influence to Ukraines culture, but not Russias at any point - considering multiple high profile Russian sources have stated that any Ukrainians opposing Russias actions and worldview should be wiped out, as should Ukranian identity, that's quite some stance to adopt), and your own stark politics. For it's faults, nobody keyed into reality thinks the situation here is anything as bad as Russia. If you're fed 'truly' ultra skewed emotional led alt-media offal for the most part, of course that's going to be the take home though. That's not to say that of late you've not posted some more objective sources, but ultimately whatever matches the fit for one eyed demographic dislike or aversions seems to be what pulls people back in, and that can be true of far left, as well as far right.


 

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View Vincehair's Profile Vincehair Flag London 23 Jun 22 1.39pm Send a Private Message to Vincehair Add Vincehair as a friend

AKA ‘westplaining’

 

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