Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?
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 Nicholas91  The Democratic Republic of Kent 24 Jun 23 4.22am |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
It's very early on to say that much really. Wagner has an estimated 25, 000 forces, so a coup is highly unlikely unless other generals join him and the west has nothing to offer them but civil war. I think Surovikin has already come out against it. Wagner's main forces are an estimated 1000 miles from Moscow, not seeing how they would even get there as aviation would take them out if they got close. Seems strange as things seem to be going well for Russian forces at the moment.
Cheers Stirling. I’ve remained wilfully ignorant for a while now and thought this strange news from my very limited understanding. Perhaps the mercenary group is just a dogmatic adherent to stereotypes and a contingent has started running its own preferred version of amok? Pure speculation from me as I’ve no idea and am very sceptical of anyone jumping upon it as evidence for a bias narrative. Can’t bode well for the Kremlin though I’m inclined to believe.
Now Zaha's got a bit of green grass ahead of him here... and finds Ambrose... not a bad effort!!!! |
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Forest Hillbilly  in a hidey-hole 24 Jun 23 5.06am |
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There is of course the possibility that Russia is just trying to gain direct control of Wagner, rather than any kind of additional conflict.
"The facts have changed", Rishi Sunak |
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Stirlingsays  24 Jun 23 5.29am |
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Originally posted by Nicholas91
Cheers Stirling. I’ve remained wilfully ignorant for a while now and thought this strange news from my very limited understanding. Perhaps the mercenary group is just a dogmatic adherent to stereotypes and a contingent has started running its own preferred version of amok? Pure speculation from me as I’ve no idea and am very sceptical of anyone jumping upon it as evidence for a bias narrative. Can’t bode well for the Kremlin though I’m inclined to believe. Yesterday Prigozhin was given an armed insurrection charge, which could carry a 20 year jail term. Probably a desperate man now and explains what's happening. He's too far away and doesn't have the logistics or air support to do anything but hold up....which would require destroying the place...obviously not something they want to do. My own analysis....and it's obviously just speculation.....is that there will be negotiations.....I can't see significant Russian on Russian warfare in any major numbers as they would be harming themselves.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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| Stirlingsays 24 Jun 23 5.30am |
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Originally posted by Forest Hillbilly
There is of course the possibility that Russia is just trying to gain direct control of Wagner, rather than any kind of additional conflict. Undoubtedly.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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| Ouzo Dan 24 Jun 23 6.56am |
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Originally posted by Forest Hillbilly
There is of course the possibility that Russia is just trying to gain direct control of Wagner, rather than any kind of additional conflict. This is definitely part of it, I don't know if it is Gerasimov, Shoigu or someone else but there's been a push to bring Wagner in line with the regular forces of the Russian military & this has pissed off Prighozin. Whilst I do oddly admire his ability to not give a f*** he is just about as violent as you can get & in the unlikely event of him getting nearer to power he would have no problem throwing numbers & everything the Russians have at Ukraine. Considering Ukraine have in the last 48 hours started full mobilisation of every male aged 18 to 60 & their summer offensive has been poor, this is the most Russian thing I've seen since they almost encircled Kyiv before running out of fuel. Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 6.58am)
Sex Panther 60% of the time it works every time |
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palace_in_frogland  In a broken dream 24 Jun 23 9.16am |
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Originally posted by Ouzo Dan
This is definitely part of it, I don't know if it is Gerasimov, Shoigu or someone else but there's been a push to bring Wagner in line with the regular forces of the Russian military & this has pissed off Prighozin. Whilst I do oddly admire his ability to not give a f*** he is just about as violent as you can get & in the unlikely event of him getting nearer to power he would have no problem throwing numbers & everything the Russians have at Ukraine. Considering Ukraine have in the last 48 hours started full mobilisation of every male aged 18 to 60 & their summer offensive has been poor, this is the most Russian thing I've seen since they almost encircled Kyiv before running out of fuel. Edited by Ouzo Dan (24 Jun 2023 6.58am) My understanding is that the full counter offensive has not yet begun, they are still undergoing probing and shaping operations. The main Ukrainian reserves are being held back until the optimal location is chosen to break through. This comes from various military bloggers, so might be nonsense. It’s very hard to determine the real truth in these situations.
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cryrst  The garden of England 24 Jun 23 9.59am |
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Reports are that Wagner are in charge in Rostov and were attacked by Russians from the rear. Ukraine might be able to get the popcorn out and watch Russia implode
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ASCPFC  Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 24 Jun 23 10.57am |
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Originally posted by cryrst
Reports are that Wagner are in charge in Rostov and were attacked by Russians from the rear. Ukraine might be able to get the popcorn out and watch Russia implode It looks like Wagner are attacking the military. All over the news.
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| silvertop Portishead 24 Jun 23 11.23am |
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Originally posted by ASCPFC
It looks like Wagner are attacking the military. All over the news. The possible issue for the kremlin is places taken from sitting Russian forces without any opposition. Is this short term confusion and/or a reluctance to fight fellow Russians, or does it suggest a more defining shift of loyalty?
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| eaglesdare 24 Jun 23 11.27am |
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Still no peace talks and still billions of the tax payers money being laundered in Ukraine. The war won't stop until people stop making money out of it or trump gets re elected. Edited by eaglesdare (24 Jun 2023 11.28am)
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| ASCPFC Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 24 Jun 23 11.47am |
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I guess Ukraine might consider a larger offensive. Conversely, that could unite the Russian forces. Perhaps best to keep an eye and carry on for now.
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| Ouzo Dan 24 Jun 23 12.19pm |
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Originally posted by palace_in_frogland
My understanding is that the full counter offensive has not yet begun, they are still undergoing probing and shaping operations. The main Ukrainian reserves are being held back until the optimal location is chosen to break through. This comes from various military bloggers, so might be nonsense. It’s very hard to determine the real truth in these situations.
The Ukrainian's have something like 60,000/70,000 troops they can throw at this offensive, it's honestly not enough. Prighozin has been calling for extra ammunition & equipment for months, it appears they've been stockpiling what they were given & this rebel insurgency has been planned for a while, starting this on a Friday night is also smart given that most Russians stationed in Rostov will be pissed as a fart & off for the weekend. I can't see anyway Wagner will be able to roll tanks all the way to Moscow without being completely devastated by airpower but every time I give the Russians credit they somehow manage to pluck incompetence from the jaws of victory so we'll have to see.
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