Yep, in strategic terms the US wins this conflict whatever the result short of nuclear war....where everybody loses as most die.

They won it the moment that pipeline was destroyed and a cold war was cemented in Europe. What happens in the Ukraine is really more a matter of bleeding Russia using Ukrainians. The cost to them is relatively cheap as they....as you correctly suggest have the capability for energy independence.....though Biden woefully under utilizes this for political reasons.

The long term strategy of the US has always been to close off a Germany/Russia alliance economically and that's certainly the case now.

We lose whether Ukraine fights off Russia, negotiates a settlement or collapses. The propaganda that Putin is some kind of greater threat is just rehashing the old 'reds under the bed' fear mongering of old. It's useful to those that want to stroke it but there's no real realism either economically or practically....and even if it did it just doesn't work in a world of nukes.

We, as in Europe, lost the moment a cold war happened.....In my view it's that old 'low quality elites' meme from me....We are going to be worse off just to compound the economic disaster of the lockdowns/covid.....just as the result of winning WW1 or indeed WW2 turned out to be actually worse for us long term both economically and socially....Yeah, it's a great source of pride for us but those wars ruined us and ultimately turned us into a 'has been' country ripe for the taking.....and the usual suspects certainly came in and took us....Our men kneel today and think good of it.

Managed decline with a megaphone distracting people. If it weren't for technology improving (something that politicians aren't responsible for) god knows where we would be.

Low quality elites has been the case for a long time.

Edited by Stirlingsays (11 Feb 2023 3.57am)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

That's was Hitler's position in 44/45....it didn't work out very well. I know I'm not going to change your mind on this and so regard this as not me arguing with you but just me putting my points across to a warrior who has spent time in the forum's trenches with me.

I say how about not putting ourselves into this corner in the first place and negotiating a deal back in March instead of stopping one....Which leads to Russia deciding to annex south and east Ukraine.....once again, an escalation begets an escalation.

Now we are forced to push them out of Ukraine with all the expense and risk of doing that.....and I don't need to tell you the risk of humiliating Russia.

If people support this they also have to support the cost that comes from it. I don't.....I will moan like feck about the cost of living and I will have that leg to stand on because I never supported this nor lockdowns. Anyone who did has to accept that they supported those consequences. However, I still don't think many people are joining the dots on this....they think this war and the economy are separate things just as with covid.

With Putin I can only say that judgements should be evidence based. Putin was talking about war over Ukraine for over a decade Hrolf, you should go watch the Oliver Stone interview from years ago. This was well known to those tracking it.

Putin has been Russian leader for over twenty years, he offered help to the west over 9/11 and wasn't anti western until we started bombing the Serbs. In my view the west completely fecked up that relationship....one that I view more important than China as they are actually European.....Now we have created a Russia/China power block against us.

Not exactly what I'd call the smartest outcome.

There is no upside to this....imagine if Nato/Ukraine win....just how long do you think our own gas pipelines would last Hrolf.

The problem with escalation is that the other guy gets to move as well and when you're fighting nuclear states there is no real prospect of a total win.....anyone who doesn't think this ends in a deal that Russia can live with just isn't being realistic.

I come from a military family, like many use to, but I've rather that my risk of death was traded for something that benefited me or my country in some tangible way.

All this is fighting for is for pride parades in Kiev and lower living standards.....Not for me.

Edited by Stirlingsays (11 Feb 2023 11.35pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Indeed. But why is this not mainstream news? It really was going to happen, even if Russia didn't invade Ukraine. Nobody believes Fox media, it's tv's equivalent to The Sun. But how come the Guardian or The Times, for example, don't report this? And why don't people ask themselves why they don't hear or read about this on MSM?

Maybe it's just another inconvenient truth to the Putin/Russia haters.

Systematically dragged down by the lawmakers

My current view is that our leaders have sold people very unrealistic expectations about just what is probably possible in Ukraine.

The propaganda has been so large and total and so without any allowed opposition that some people will be shocked when they realise that Russia aren't going to be dislodged out of Ukraine.

Is it possible? Yes, but it requires at least 400 thousand fully trained troops armed fully with modern Nato weapons, tanks and air support. Essentially it requires Nato personnel to fight as those numbers of trained men just can't be produced.

Ukraine lost many of its best troops in the first few months of the war and while they have plenty of civilians they have nothing like the human resources that Russia could throw at it. I'm of the view that in time that early March/April period of negotiation was their best chance of keeping as much of Ukraine as possible.

Even more importantly the Russian economy had to be destroyed and while they harmed it they came nowhere close to what they needed to acheive. In fact that all backfired rather horribly and now the west finds itself similarly affected and much worse in a cold war and battling for influence in outside territories......often forcing governments to support them, which tells the lie of 'liberal democracy'....Serbia is the latest case in point.

I'm not even sure that the tanks promised to Ukraine will actually get there in the numbers required or be effective in the field without air support. We will see I guess.

To win this war you need to seriously risk both nuclear and actual WW3 with Russia.

Do I think that's going to happen?.....I don't know, I doubt it but nothing surprises me now.

My current thinking is that the west won't support this war into next winter and that most of the hard fighting will be done in the apparently coming Russia offensive and maybe spring Ukrainian counter offensive. I think the west will look to disentangle at that stage and then the propaganda machine will be in full swing to present whatever the lay of the land is as some kind of victory.....Of course Russia has to agree to stop fighting as well.

Whatever the result the brighter lights among us will come to realise that we are in a much worse situation than before.....though there is feck all we can do about it.

Edited by Stirlingsays (12 Feb 2023 4.55am)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

That is certainly possible. How wrong he was.

Ukraine use enforced conscription. Let's not forget that they banned men from leaving the country back at the start of the war.

Along with all the other stuff they banned.

In the south and east Ukrainian areas that they still occupy that would have meant forcing pro Russians to fight as well.

It's not really as romantic a situation when people learn that not all Ukrainians hate Russians....the western media feed the Polish western Ukrainian view of this war when it shouldn't be forgotten that at least half of the south and east of the country rebelled and fought in a civil war once that 2014 coup happened.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)